Been a while since I posted my picks, but today I'm posting again:
COL Rockies (-1.0) at +128 (Bet365, combined of 45,65% on -1,5 RL and 54,35% on ML).
The Rockies look to match a season high with their third straight victory with Nicosia on the mound, who is looking for revenge for an earlier slapping on 13 April, where D-backs slapped him for 6 runs in 2.2 innings. I'm sure he'll pitch his A-game today to get even.
ATL Braves (-1.0) at +121 (NordicBet, combined of 41,86% on -1.5 RL and 58.14% on ML).
With Beachy on the mound for Braves at home, I think the re-emerged Marlins will come to a halt. Beachy have only given up 1 homer in 45 innings. If all goes wrong in the first half of the match, we still have the Marlins bullpen to hand us at least a 2 run win. 1 run win is ok too, as that will give us back the stake.
CIN Reds (-1.0) at +114 (Pinnacle).
I expect few runs with Latos and Dickey on the mound, but Mets bullpen should help us in this game also. They love to give up runs and should help us get the 2 run win for the better team.
All my bets today are with the -1 run line that voids the bet if they win by only 1 run. I like this line as it increases the payback without significantly increasing the risk of a loss. If you only have access to -1.5 run lines you can use that line and combine it with ML at a percentage that will give you back the stake in case of a 1 run win.
Been a while since I posted my picks, but today I'm posting again:
COL Rockies (-1.0) at +128 (Bet365, combined of 45,65% on -1,5 RL and 54,35% on ML).
The Rockies look to match a season high with their third straight victory with Nicosia on the mound, who is looking for revenge for an earlier slapping on 13 April, where D-backs slapped him for 6 runs in 2.2 innings. I'm sure he'll pitch his A-game today to get even.
ATL Braves (-1.0) at +121 (NordicBet, combined of 41,86% on -1.5 RL and 58.14% on ML).
With Beachy on the mound for Braves at home, I think the re-emerged Marlins will come to a halt. Beachy have only given up 1 homer in 45 innings. If all goes wrong in the first half of the match, we still have the Marlins bullpen to hand us at least a 2 run win. 1 run win is ok too, as that will give us back the stake.
CIN Reds (-1.0) at +114 (Pinnacle).
I expect few runs with Latos and Dickey on the mound, but Mets bullpen should help us in this game also. They love to give up runs and should help us get the 2 run win for the better team.
All my bets today are with the -1 run line that voids the bet if they win by only 1 run. I like this line as it increases the payback without significantly increasing the risk of a loss. If you only have access to -1.5 run lines you can use that line and combine it with ML at a percentage that will give you back the stake in case of a 1 run win.
With the rumor of Josh Hamilton being out of the lineup today I don't think the line will increase on A's.
I am on under 9 runs in OAK@TEX instead at -105 (12bet). With Rangers being in a bit of a hitting slump and potentially with Josh Hamilton out I don't expect too many runs for them. The A's generally don't give us many runs, so overall I think there is good value in under 9 runs, which I give 50% chance of happening (5% chance of exactly 9 runs which returns the stake) so a bet value of 103%
With the rumor of Josh Hamilton being out of the lineup today I don't think the line will increase on A's.
I am on under 9 runs in OAK@TEX instead at -105 (12bet). With Rangers being in a bit of a hitting slump and potentially with Josh Hamilton out I don't expect too many runs for them. The A's generally don't give us many runs, so overall I think there is good value in under 9 runs, which I give 50% chance of happening (5% chance of exactly 9 runs which returns the stake) so a bet value of 103%
Under in OAK@TEX returned my stake. Reds lost, unfortunately it was them who had a bad bullpen today and not Mets. Rockies are runnings it dangerously close, up by one at the moment after having been up by 3 two times. The two bullpens are now going to decide it, but at the moment I'll be satisfied with the 1 run lead they have and get my stake back.
So it looks like it's pretty much up to Braves to make me go in positive today. Not the best of days I've had, but I hope to wake up to a nice Braves win :)
Under in OAK@TEX returned my stake. Reds lost, unfortunately it was them who had a bad bullpen today and not Mets. Rockies are runnings it dangerously close, up by one at the moment after having been up by 3 two times. The two bullpens are now going to decide it, but at the moment I'll be satisfied with the 1 run lead they have and get my stake back.
So it looks like it's pretty much up to Braves to make me go in positive today. Not the best of days I've had, but I hope to wake up to a nice Braves win :)
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