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Cubbies Pick is a Trap today

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Posted: #26
i was on arizona =[.....dont know today tho with cubs rocks...mite b no play...how confident r u
 
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Posted: #27
Its a No Play for me.  Last night, I was on the Cubs because the lines dictated that this is the correct play.  Today, I was leaning towards the Cubs.  After everything was said and done, I backed off. 
 
I am not someone who puts my money on -120 or higher. 
I am not someone to play a +140 dog or higher. 
I am not someone who plays the RL in any situation.
 
 
Its your call.  I'm just offereing my opinion...My strategy plus theory has backed me up since the 2006 season.
 
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Posted: #28
Quote Originally Posted by MLKing:

Also, i'd like to point out, the Cubbies game last night was NOT a trap.  They opened up as a low +106 dog, turned -110 or less. 
 
They did what they were supposed to do.  Win. 
 
The Books adjusted the dog line to a low fav line to cut their losses and MOVE ON TO TODAY.  Their gonna bank on this...
 
And the COL RL is questionable.  Because now you have to hope the sputtering COL offense will get you more than 2 runs vs. a hot CHC team....
 
GL with those who have the COL RL.


That's not correct.  Yesterday morning, the Cubs were around -110 to -115.  IN the couple hours before gametime the line DROPPED to Cubs -105 to +100.  Basically it dropped around 10 cents.  Not at all very different from today's movement.
 
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Posted: #29
All the trends of a matchup, the umpire's decisions for a game, Pitcher Vs. Pitcher, bats vs. bats, etc.. all means NOTHING.
 
Let the Books do the capping.  The lines tell all.
______________
 
You honestly believe this drivel?  You cite ONE game last night (AZ) where people thought it was easy money to prove your point? 
 
Here we go again....another person pointing out a "trap" game that went there way to prove their point.  I could point out plenty of other examples where it goes the other way.
 
I am now dumber for having read this. 
 
 
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Posted: #30
I capped Arizona last night.  Truth be told.  I'll be 100% honest with you, I waiting on the DirtBacks line to move to at least -110 to convince me.  The lines never moved.  I mean, cmon.  Haren Vs. the offense-ridden Dodgers @ Chavez Ravine?  Shoulda been AZ and the Under,right? 
 
Haren gets smashed early, Dodgers Win as a -110 Favorite, the Over hits, and they just raped the public by fooling them with a Dog line. 
 
This 2Game-2Series NL week is something else. 
 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by HutchEmAll:

All the trends of a matchup, the umpire's decisions for a game, Pitcher Vs. Pitcher, bats vs. bats, etc.. all means NOTHING.
 
Let the Books do the capping.  The lines tell all.
______________
 
You honestly believe this drivel?  You cite ONE game last night (AZ) where people thought it was easy money to prove your point? 
 
Here we go again....another person pointing out a "trap" game that went there way to prove their point.  I could point out plenty of other examples where it goes the other way.
 
I am now dumber for having read this. 
 

I LOVE THIS!  In case you didn't realize, Hutch....you're betting ON THE BOOKS LINES, NOT YOUR LINES, you schmuck.  You didn't make the lines, THEY DID.  You don't adjust the lines, THEY DO. 

And judging by your username, Hutch, that must be what you do. 

Another foolish degenerate using the HUTCHING System.  Might as well use the Martingale System while your at it.

 

 
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Posted: #32
I love a good debate...
 
 
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Posted: #33
noneed4luck...i hear that 'dont go against the streak, you can only win once' line a lot, however, i have cashed in several times this season going against streaks, especially on totals...my question is this, if you are going with the streak, when exactly do YOU jump in...the 2nd game, the 3rd game, the 4th game???? that's the problem with going WITH the streak, when do you jump in? b/c i have looked at the numbers from last season and it would have been very difficult to make money doing it your way, however, when going against a streak (with a little chasing every now and then) you can make money every time...most recently i made money on the brewers going over when they had posted 5 straight unders and then last night i had the SD under 7 b/c SD had posted 5 straight overs...going against the streak pays money...
 
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Posted: #34

Quote Originally Posted by depeche2:



That's not correct.  Yesterday morning, the Cubs were around -110 to -115.  IN the couple hours before gametime the line DROPPED to Cubs -105 to +100.  Basically it dropped around 10 cents.  Not at all very different from today's movement.

depeche, i track opening lines.  I'm sorry to admit this to you, but it opened up as the Cubs at +106 the night before.  I ended placing on the Cubbies before Gametime at -102 to -110. 

 
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Posted: #35
im on the rockies MLKING just doesnt make sense, the hotter team is the cubs,  cubs way better record and there dogs? oh cause its at coors right? just not buying it....
 
 
COLORADO
 
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Posted: #36
and oh by the way...i have the under 9.5 in the reds game today and it looks like i may get the reverse moose...why did i go with the under? b/c houston has posted 4 str8 overs...
 
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Posted: #37
I know its late to say this because well...its retarded to post...
 
I was on the Brewers today at -130.  Didn't post it, didn't want to. 
No Ry-How
MIL has a great record vs. Lefties
The lines got worse for the Phillies and favored the Brewers today.
 
 
Legend
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Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by MLKing:

Streaks are meant to be broken.  Coors Field is a pitchers park.   Say what you like.  I capped the game, based on stats, pitchers, and pens, 100% for the cubs.  So why didn't the line adjust? 

Should I use the AZ +100 line vs. the Dodgers last night as a glaring example? 

You're a fool to back the Cubs today.

Coors Field not exactly a pitchers' park. Especially later in the season when the air is less dense. Fly-balls sail in this park and when a good pitcher can pull to the corners, that ball is gone.

 

 

 

 

 

Go Cubbies!

 
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Posted: #39
nccashman,
 
I know you use Cisco's system and i believe you've made lots of $$ by it. 
 
I love your system because it doesn't look at the teams, just scores.
 
I personally don't use it, but I read your post and Love_Totals posts and you've made alot of $$.  Congrats.
 
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Posted: #40
Time to put my $$ where my mouth is, right? 
 
GL to all the Cubbies backers.......
 
 
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Posted: #41
Quote Originally Posted by HappyKane:

Coors Field not exactly a pitchers' park. Especially later in the season when the air is less dense. Fly-balls sail in this park and when a good pitcher can pull to the corners, that ball is gone.

Go Cubbies!

Makes sense... but how long does "later in the season" last? 

no wonder COL made the WS...

GL with your pick...

 
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Posted: #42
I guess I've been "trapped".....

CUBBIES +135..........
 
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Posted: #43
Who listens to this schmuck MLKing anyway?He goes into good and well respected cappers threads and bashes,then starts a thread of his own,but without a pick.He is a lonely,lonely person.I would say man,but he is small in all areas.
 
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Posted: #44
A schmuck with 327 posts bashing veterans.Come to the table with more credibility,schmo.BTW.......the rocks have an awesome closer,so you're money is safe.       going against the cubbies
 
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Posted: #45
collectNO ...the size of your post count does not matter...you for example have come into this thread and bashed ML king and he has indeed stated that he is going with the rockies today...cut the rook some slack...by the way, I am on the Colorado squad today as well  this will be me if Corpas comes into the game
 
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Posted: #46
I am not someone who puts my money on -120 or higher. 
I am not someone to play a +140 dog or higher. 
I am not someone who plays the RL in any situation
 
 
 know its late to say this because well...its retarded to post...
 
I was on the Brewers today at -130.  Didn't post it, didn't want to. 
No Ry-How
MIL has a great record vs. Lefties
The lines got worse for the Phillies and favored the Brewers today.
 
 and how convienent you posted you were on the brewers when it was tied in the 7th and they had runners on the corners with no outs.  please stay out of my threads now
 
 
 
 
 
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Posted: #47
Quote Originally Posted by MLKing:

I know its late to say this because well...its retarded to post...
 
I was on the Brewers today at -130.  Didn't post it, didn't want to. 
No Ry-How
MIL has a great record vs. Lefties
The lines got worse for the Phillies and favored the Brewers today.
 

Milw has lost and for some god awful reason(fluke) Col loses...

You will come back here and state you were on the right side even though both teams lost. That is no trap.

 

 
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Posted: #48
Hey....i don't care about posting...for what? so people can buy into my picks, put some $$ on it, and push the odds the other way?
 
If I have x amount of posts, what does that earn me? Sh*t..I don't even get a Covers Trophy!
 
And yes...I did post the brew crew pick and honestly, i regret it. I don't know what was wrong with me.  I had Philly +130 at first, then backed off.  Stupid of me to back the Brew Pen.  I left myself out to dry stating that I did.  So what.  Should I post my plays later today to prove i'll probably go over 60% for the day?
 
Should I also post how much Matrixx Dollars is being wagered?
Should I say I when I receive a phone call from some guys about a pick?
 
EVERYONE on here is always looking for proof.  For what? Pride? Jealousy?  Who cares!!!!
 
Yes...CollectNo.. you are a schmuck.  Because you bash my # of posts.  The Higher number of posts = tail this poster because he's GOOOOOD.  You are truly the average roamer here in covers forums.
 
And badlands, listen.  I didn't bash you.  i even wished you luck.  Even though you blew your profits from yesterday on a retarded 1st 5 total, thats not on me...thats you. 
 
AND..I won't stay out of your thread because its a public forum. 
 
Geez.....is this a communist forum now?
 
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Posted: #49
i guess you didnt notice the red sox stayed under in the first 5 retarded total or was that one just to retarded to even count as a win?  
 
 
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Posted: #50
ok badlands......seriously...do the math....i even had to go to your post to read it...
 
2   Units on Cincy Under 1st 5 total +100
1.5 Units on RedSox Under 1st 5 Total -115
Total Spent  3.5 Units
Total Won 2.77 Units
LOST 0.72 Units
 
yeah....even, huh.....
 
Keep telling yourself that...
 
Also, don't forget to chase the later games tonight because you need to catch up.........
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