All Forums | MLB Betting

Cubbies Pick is a Trap today

...
Participants:
Search model icon
Views: 1450
Posts: 60
 
Covers Rehab
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2008
Posts: 448
Posted: #1
The whole board is on the cubbies...
 
and yet, the line goes down from +116 to +129
 
Fishy Fishy Fishy....
 
 
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Jun, 2006
Posts: 5175
Posted: #2
you got that right;  Col-1.5 to the bank!!!!!!!!!!
 
Legend
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2002
Posts: 67006
Posted: #3
Consider me trapped at +133
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Jun, 2007
Posts: 505
Posted: #4
Might be a trap but cant with a good conscience go against a HOT Cubs team against a slumping Rockies team. Cubs win this game at least half the time so +126 is a bargain. Go Cubs
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2008
Posts: 2378
Posted: #5
love the cubbies but love money more...are you taking the cubs today? ask yourself this, how often have the cubs been given a dog line? hmmm...go with the rocks and cook today...may put some on the under as well...
 
Covers Rehab
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2008
Posts: 448
Posted: #6
Jayrbooth,
 
Think about last night's game.  It came down to the pens and the Rox came back to tie the 9th.
 
Throw out the pitchers stats for today.  Throw out Righties Vs. Lefties.  Throw out everything you know about the Cubs and Rox.
Think of the line movements.
Look at CHC/COL and how the line shifted from opening up for CHC +116, turning into CHC +129
CHC won yesterday, so the CHC line should be +110 or less.  If the board is betting CHC, so is the public.  Public perception.  Besides, the line SHOULD be shifting, but its not. CHC is the hot team, but the linesmakers and COL will do what it takes for COL to win today.  Public will think, CHC @ +129? WHAT A DEAL!
 
Sorry, but all the stats you read about. (Pitchers, BA, Pen Avg, Save %, If someone will hit a HR today, etc.)  doesn't matter.  Its what the lines are telling you, but people don't understand how the books earn their money. 
 
Legend
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2003
Posts: 34877
Posted: #7
 
Hall of Fame
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2007
Posts: 28685
Posted: #8
this board is not the entire gambling universe. don't bet against the streak, you will only win once.
 
Covers Rehab
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2008
Posts: 448
Posted: #9
All the schmucks that post on forums don't understand it.  They make a huge write-up as to why they think Team A will win.  There's no rhyme or reason.  Sports Gambling is about a 50% game, generated so the Books can convince you to either they pay you less, or they take all your money.  Which side would you be on?
 
If you want to win, go with a blind system.  Such as the 5-Run Chase or the Home Team Chase.
 
If you want to hit 60% or less across the season, Cap Games.
 
I don't post anymore.  I figured a strategy plus theory that has won me almost +35units for the month of April.  I choose not to post because I fear lines will adjust.  I'd rather let the lines either settle in and see where it goes. 

I'll post random thoughts here and there...
 
 
Covers Rehab
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2008
Posts: 448
Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by NONEED4LUCK:

this board is not the entire gambling universe. don't bet against the streak, you will only win once.

Streaks are meant to be broken.  Coors Field is a pitchers park.   Say what you like.  I capped the game, based on stats, pitchers, and pens, 100% for the cubs.  So why didn't the line adjust? 

Should I use the AZ +100 line vs. the Dodgers last night as a glaring example? 

You're a fool to back the Cubs today.

 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2007
Posts: 7516
Posted: #11
So, you could call this a bear trap?
 
I'm hooked and took the hot team for +128
 
Good luck
 
Covers Rehab
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2008
Posts: 448
Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by Jimmag:

So, you could call this a bear trap?
 
I'm hooked and took the hot team for +128
 
Good luck

 GOOD ONE!  I totally didn't think about it..

GL with your decision, Jimmag

 
Hall of Fame
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2005
Posts: 27044
Posted: #13
 
Legend
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2002
Posts: 67006
Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by MLKing:

Jayrbooth,
 
Think about last night's game.  It came down to the pens and the Rox came back to tie the 9th.
 
Throw out the pitchers stats for today.  Throw out Righties Vs. Lefties.  Throw out everything you know about the Cubs and Rox.
Think of the line movements.
Look at CHC/COL and how the line shifted from opening up for CHC +116, turning into CHC +129
CHC won yesterday, so the CHC line should be +110 or less.  If the board is betting CHC, so is the public.  Public perception.  Besides, the line SHOULD be shifting, but its not. CHC is the hot team, but the linesmakers and COL will do what it takes for COL to win today.  Public will think, CHC @ +129? WHAT A DEAL!
 
Sorry, but all the stats you read about. (Pitchers, BA, Pen Avg, Save %, If someone will hit a HR today, etc.)  doesn't matter.  Its what the lines are telling you, but people don't understand how the books earn their money. 


Is your theory that:
a) the books decide who's going to win (presumably by fixing the game with either the umps and/or players), or
b) that they can see the future and know who's going to win, or
c) both?

 
Covers Rehab
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2007
Posts: 1764
Posted: #15
just like yesterday's cubs game was a trap.... you people and this stupid fucking trap logic
 
All-Star
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2008
Posts: 14473
Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by Seldombeter:

you got that right;  Col-1.5 to the bank!!!!!!!!!!

Thats my play and O 9-....GL   Kemosabe

 
Covers Rehab
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2008
Posts: 448
Posted: #17

Quote Originally Posted by depeche2:



Is your theory that:
a) the books decide who's going to win (presumably by fixing the game with either the umps and/or players), or
b) that they can see the future and know who's going to win, or
c) both?

My theory does not include any type of fixing.  Only degenerates think of that.  If it truly is B, why do they set the odds as they do?  ugh....i feel like i'm talking to a degenerate gambler that just plays action on as many games as possible.

Look at the NYM/WASH Matchup. Lines opened up as NYM -149/WASH +141.  This morning, its NYM -125/WAS +115.  The Books clearly messed up.  Is it because of public money? Is it because of Books incorrect placement of odds?  They FEAR of losing money. 

And Depeche2.. 10,000 posts means you're obviously a degenerate without any improvements in your betting patterns, posting that I think its fixed....

 
Covers Rehab
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2008
Posts: 448
Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by anj109:

just like yesterday's cubs game was a trap.... you people and this stupid fucking trap logic

You must've been one of the schmucks that was on Haren last night, huh? AZ +100 to the bank, right?

Easy money, right?

 
Covers Rehab
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2007
Posts: 1764
Posted: #19
Books move lines to even out there wagers because they make all their money on JUICE.... The way a line moves has nothing to do with the OUTCOME of the game. It's a fucking GAME.
 
Covers Rehab
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2008
Posts: 448
Posted: #20
Also, i'd like to point out, the Cubbies game last night was NOT a trap.  They opened up as a low +106 dog, turned -110 or less. 
 
They did what they were supposed to do.  Win. 
 
The Books adjusted the dog line to a low fav line to cut their losses and MOVE ON TO TODAY.  Their gonna bank on this...
 
And the COL RL is questionable.  Because now you have to hope the sputtering COL offense will get you more than 2 runs vs. a hot CHC team....
 
GL with those who have the COL RL.
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2005
Posts: 7577
Posted: #21
MLK,
 
You need to back off with all this cockiness!!!!
 
Who the fuck are you to tell people this game is a trap
 
 
SAF 
 
Covers Rehab
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2008
Posts: 448
Posted: #22
Make all their money on juice?!?!?!? ARE YOU KIDDING ME?
 
What about the underdog backers that don't hit?  They EARN A FULL UNIT, you shmuck.
 
3 scenarios for them:
1.  They pay out less because they were right at setting the favorite line as they should.
2.  They earn money from foolish, degenerate gamblers that have been betting on dogs last night that thinks the trend will continue today.
3.  They lose money for the people that are on the right side.
 
Man....I swear....this forum has always been a bunch of degenerates who gambles their paycheck in hoping to turn this into their career...I love wasting my time here....
 
 
 
 
Covers Rehab
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2008
Posts: 448
Posted: #23
And this is not cockiness...I'm just stating the facts....
 
All the trends of a matchup, the umpire's decisions for a game, Pitcher Vs. Pitcher, bats vs. bats, etc.. all means NOTHING.
 
Let the Books do the capping.  The lines tell all.
 
 
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2007
Posts: 2921
Posted: #24
MLKing has his opinion and good for him for sharin it.  I too hesitate to bet when there is a public lean one way (or 50/50 +/-) and there is a distinct line movement that opposes my capping.
 
I recall a vast majority on the over 7 in the Padres game yesterday...  In the forums and at the windows; The books hammered us (well not some of us) that game coulda gone 20 innings, they still werent getting to 7.
 
 look before you leap... If you like the cubbies, Good Luck.
 
Personally, looks like a no play- If the books continue to favor Col though, I will make a small Rockies play (maybe on ML, maybe small Parlay w/ Habs (NHL) 
 
 
 
Covers Rehab
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2008
Posts: 448
Posted: #25
Ok..maybe I should rephrase my "trap" call..
 
How about sucker bet?
 
All Forums | MLB Betting
About Us
Contact Us
Careers
Our Team
Brand
Testimonials
Betting Guides
Sportsbook Reviews
Sports Betting News
Podcasts
Responsible Gaming
Sports Betting
US Betting Sites
Canada Betting Sites
Canada Casinos
Best Betting Apps
Contests
Streak Survivor
King of Covers
Ultimate Race
Office Pools
The Covers community has
618,670
lifetime members worldwide
Covers 25 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
Site Map Help Privacy Terms of Service youtube logo facebook logo twitter logo instagram logo linkedin logo google news logo
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo
Copyright © 1995 - 2025 CS Media Limited All Rights Reserved.

If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.