Bubba's $$$$ Thread WEDNESDAY - Post Your BEST Play (With Writeup) - 04.06.16

... +110 now

Hey bubba, good writeup on the marlins. Definately can't go wrong backing Fernandez at home. I will follow you on that one. I also like nationals and jays today.

[Cita: Iniciado por Bubbaski27] [/Citar]

Beware of Bovada,I have been waiting for a payout since March 3 they keep telling me it's on the way.Over a month for a 1018usd win?

???????? of the day is the Dodgers

Maeda has some nice stuff, Dodgers swinging the bat well, cashner for the Padres has played the Dodgers well but overall not a good pitcher, Padres also not swinging the bat well at all, I don't see them swinging it any better today, also cashner had a rough spring training...

DODGERS -130

$$$$Giants-135$$$$


Love the Giants and Samrdzija in this spot to complete the sweep of the lowly offensively challenged. The Giants have won 10 of the last 11 against Milwaukee, including the last 5 in Miller Park. Posey taking a days rest doesn't scare me in this spot. $$$$ Giants -135$$$$

Bubba, thanks for all you do, this thread is very much appreciated

**** $$$$ Play **** Mariners Team Total over 4.5 

Gl Hat agree !! 

missed a winner ... ouch

Morn bro ... Do you post your plays on Twitter or anywhere else ... appreciate the reply ...

@Bubba - I think the increase to -150 for MLB only is a good call.  I think there is alot of value with teams in that range that probably could be a much higher ML.

****$$$$ Play**** OAK -129 

$$$$ Brewers +130

i agree with that giants/brewers cap... i think the giants are clearly a better team i just dont know what to make of samardija just yet

The Sacramento Bee, March 31, 2016:

Making his first appearance in his new home stadium in the Bay Bridge series opener against the A’s, Samardzija turned in his best start of the spring, throwing five scoreless innings and allowing one hit. In his final tune-up before the regular season, Samardzija struck out five, did not walk a batter and retired the final 15 hitters he faced after Billy Burns’ leadoff triple in the first inning as the Giants beat the A’s, 3-1.

Samardzija left Arizona with a 7.20 spring ERA, but that number was inflated by two poor starts in which he allowed 13 runs. Samardzija said he thought he’d still thrown well in those games and his final two starts -- in which he allowed two runs in 11 innings, struck out nine and walked none -- were more indicative of his pitching.

"I’m just happy my arm feels good," said Samardzija, who signed a five-year, $90 million contract with the Giants last winter. "Camp is just about, especially for a guy like me who likes to throw hard, just getting the (velocity) up and getting my strength."

Doesn't anyone see any issues with opening this up to -150 plays? The goal of the thread is to make money and to me it'll turn into a record contest. It's just that it's gonna be all chalk with the nature of baseball betting. I believe Holmey said before that this process only worked in college basketball in his experience.

I don't mean to be a downer bc this thread has been awesome but I really question the effectiveness when vast majority of plays will be chalk and there's no way bubba will or should track someone's +/- units with all the juice. I hope everyone continues to make money with this thread, I really do. I just have serious reservations about tailing baseball under this format.

Diamondbacks (3:40PM ET FSAZ, RTRM, MLB.TV) – Looking to get back in the $$$$ win column with some early MLB action today as the Arizona Diamondbacks and Colorado Rockies contest the rubber match of a three game set at Chase Field in Phoenix.  Before we get into the breakdown of this game lets address what we mean when we talk about “value” in baseball and why this is great value despite having to lay a big amount of juice.  This line is on the move but as this is being written we still see this in the -155 to -160 range and it may go as high as -165 by game time.  Even having to lay that juice, the Diamondbacks should be in the -210 to -220 range here and once the Rockies start to get exposed as one of the worst teams in baseball that’s the number we will see under the same set of circumstances.  What we have learned over the first two days of the season is the Rockies can hit.  Even with Jose Reyes not there to set the table at the top of the order the Rockies are getting a huge effort from his replacement, Trevor Story, and this team has pop up and down the lineup which will always make them a threat to score some runs.  The reason the Rockies are just about guaranteed to barely break 70 wins this season is their pitching top to bottom is the worst in the majors and while they have a couple starters that could be serviceable this season, the bullpen is an absolute disaster and was already ravaged by the Diamondbacks last night as Arizona scored nine runs en route to an 11-6 victory.  Having logged a bunch of relief innings over the past two days puts the Rockies in a tough spot with a quick turnaround today as Tyler Chatwood gets the ball for the Rockies in his first start since April 29, 2014 after a long road back from Tommy John surgery that cost him the entire 2015 season.  Chatwood has looked good this spring but there’s no way the Rockies will let him throw more than 85-90 pitches today meaning the battered Rockies bullpen will be called on for important innings of work today against a lineup that, for lack of a better way to describe it, owns them.  In hindsight it was probably not the best move to back Zack Greinke in his first start as a Diamondback in Chase Field and it’s the main reason we didn’t make a move on the Diamondbacks last night as Shelby Miller was making his home debut with the team as well but today the ball is given to Patrick Corbin, the Diamondbacks best returning starter and someone that absolutely loves pitching in this park.  Not only is Corbin entirely comfortable at Chase Field, notable due to how good of a hitters park Chase Field is, but he has dominated this particular group of Rockies since entering the big leagues a couple seasons ago, going 5-0 with a 3.14 ERA in his last eight starts against the Rockies.  Arizona has won Corbin’s last nine starts against Colorado and Corbin looked fantastic this spring, posting a 1.71 ERA over five Cactus League outings.  Corbin worked hard to come back from his own Tommy John surgery last year and was effective in the second half of the season so he’s essentially back to normal heading into 2016 and had great command of all of his pitches in Spring Training.  Arizona has the momentum in this series after a big comeback last night and with their stacked lineup they are such a better team than the Rockies that anytime they are less than -180 at home against Colorado it has to at least be considered as a play.  The Diamondbacks are so high on Patrick Corbin they essentially turned down Jose Fernandez as the Marlins were willing to part ways with what many consider to be the best young right hander in the game as they would have wanted Corbin in return in the deal.  Zack Greinke is the clear ace of this staff but Corbin has all the intangibles to be a front of the rotation guy and with an extremely favorable matchup for the young southpaw here we will lay the vig and keep our risk amount reasonable as we pick up a couple units in the desert this afternoon.

In reference to the way this line has moved, I dont think we have anything to worry about from that perspective here.  I think the late money is overreacting to some lineup changes for the Dbacks today but the meat of the order (Goldschmidt, Peralta, Lamb) are all playing and quite frankly the Rockies pen is giving up runs to just about any lineup in this ballpark.