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Bodio's MLB Tue 05/03

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Posted: #51
Albert Einstein....= .......................
 
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Posted: #52
 
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Posted: #53
A few things:

1. Bodio: Will send u email today or tmrw - have some baseball thoughts/ideas.

2. King George: Good point re: ML/RL - I do it all the time as most of books I use don't offer the -1 option - so you can create "synthetically".

3. Barbosa: Good point.  The NYY ML of -157 suggests 61% win chance.  The +104 ML suggests 49%.  That means the "price" of a 1-run game is 12%.  Historically (and on "average" Vegas lines) - it is 17% - as we know 30% of games end in 1 run with 17% being the favorite that wins by one run.  So, yes in this game, the probability price of 1 run is lower than general (a lot lower as 12% vs 17%) so your real point is the RL is "out of wack" - assuming we think ML prices are set more "mathematically" and correct.

* I know I don't post too often, but will try.  I read a lot of guys on here and all the work everyone does is GREAT...
 
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Posted: #54
what do u think about colorado??
 
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Posted: #55
Quote Originally Posted by kvs23:

A few things:

1. Bodio: Will send u email today or tmrw - have some baseball thoughts/ideas.

2. King George: Good point re: ML/RL - I do it all the time as most of books I use don't offer the -1 option - so you can create "synthetically".

3. Barbosa: Good point.  The NYY ML of -157 suggests 61% win chance.  The +104 ML suggests 49%.  That means the "price" of a 1-run game is 12%.  Historically (and on "average" Vegas lines) - it is 17% - as we know 30% of games end in 1 run with 17% being the favorite that wins by one run.  So, yes in this game, the probability price of 1 run is lower than general (a lot lower as 12% vs 17%) so your real point is the RL is "out of wack" - assuming we think ML prices are set more "mathematically" and correct.

* I know I don't post too often, but will try.  I read a lot of guys on here and all the work everyone does is GREAT...

Cool.  Looking forward to your thoughts and ideas...
 
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Posted: #56
Quote Originally Posted by p4l:

what do u think about colorado??

Was my last 'strong lean'...I can't remember why I eliminated them though
 
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Posted: #57
 
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Posted: #58

BOL

 
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Posted: #59
 
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Posted: #60
yanks looking bad .
 
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Posted: #61
B
 
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Posted: #62
0-4 today baseball/basketball combined today. Been following the past two weeks and his record does not jive with reality. 
 
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Posted: #63
Quote Originally Posted by AYDENZPIX:

0-4 today baseball/basketball combined today. Been following the past two weeks and his record does not jive with reality. 
  WHO DID HE HAVE TODAY !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
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Posted: #64
this white sox line-up makes any pitchers look good.  it might be better to just bet the under for white sox total  every game the way they are hitting.
 
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Posted: #65
Quote Originally Posted by AYDENZPIX:

0-4 today baseball/basketball combined today. Been following the past two weeks and his record does not jive with reality. 

yeah i really picked a bad day to start following.  maybe i am the jinx.  
 
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Posted: #66
lol everyones so bad. bodio is great. you all just bet too much per play. everyone knows that,
 
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Posted: #67
its not about the losses for the day, its about being more in the positives then the negatives. yes it does suck if you just started following the picks today haha

 
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Posted: #68
God damn! Stop swinging! make this piece of shit throw strikes!!!
 
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Posted: #69
SIGH...


Yankees get crushed by DET and then the CWS get a NO-HITTER thrown against them.  Couldnt have picked two worse teams to bet on tonight.
 
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Posted: #70
  Tomorrow... we get'em back
 
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Posted: #71

what happened to eric bedard?  he is a sack of sh!$it.  another steroid product.  he should be dumped seattle is going nowehere let the youngens pitch. 

 
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Posted: #72

Quote Originally Posted by acehye2047:

bodio sucks!

This post was remarkably like your first two. Cap your own games ass clown!

 
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Posted: #73
MLB is a marathon not a race, even I know that as a rookie. Bankroll management is key, if your not capping your own your a fool, period. There are a few capers on covers that make sound chices and back them up on covers, Bodio is one of them and is A+ BUT if your not doing your own work send me an email and I will send you my pay pal account and just make your deposits to me. Cap yourself and check against what players you trust and follow but DO YOUR OWN WORK first and quit crying when your shortcuts don't pan out....sorry just had to be said.

 
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Posted: #74
Quote Originally Posted by 40Down:

This post was remarkably like your first two. Cap your own games ass clown!

or take the Twins and Detroit...We all know Bodio is a White Sox homey..I guess same here. 

Pretty sure he will rock again..GL BOD's..
Let the haters ...Hate...
and 40down..start capping your own.....Right?
 
 
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Posted: #75
Bodio, very tough day today, but you can weather an 0-6 day especially when you hit on average at about 60%.  Unfortunately tailed you on the baseball and the under in the Boston game but I had to go opposite on Nashville and also on the Celtics based on the "Lebron wants revenge for Delonte banging his mom" theory.  One silver lining is my White Sox action was on sports.com so I should be getting a refund because they have a promotion where they refund your wagers if your team was no-hit.  Get em tomorrow.
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