Posting the breakdowns for the day. Not sure if I'm going to have any plays today as the card looks bleak. Still a couple of games to go through though...
Keep an eye on the ATL/CHC total when it comes out.
Posting the breakdowns for the day. Not sure if I'm going to have any plays today as the card looks bleak. Still a couple of games to go through though...
Keep an eye on the ATL/CHC total when it comes out.
Atlanta Braves 78-53 (60%) @ Chicago Cubs 57-73 (44%)
B.
Beachy, starting for Atlanta Braves, has a FIP of 3.47 (#44 in MLB),
xFIP of 3.31 (#24 in MLB), and tERA of 3.66 (#46 in MLB), with a BABIP
of .287, LOB% of 79%, and E-F of -0.15. He has a K/BB ratio of 3.75,
with a WHIP of 1.16, and opponent BA of .228. His batted-ball
peripherals are: LD%: 21%, GB%: 32%, FB%: 48% for a 0.66 GB/FB ratio,
and a HR/FB of 11%.
M. Garza, starting for Chicago Cubs, has a
FIP of 3.01 (#18 in MLB), xFIP of 3.13 (#11 in MLB), and tERA of 3.52
(#32 in MLB), with a BABIP of .309, LOB% of 69%, and E-F of 0.61. He has
a K/BB ratio of 2.96, with a WHIP of 1.29, and opponent BA of .241. His
batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 20%, GB%: 48%, FB%: 33% for a 1.46
GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 9%.
Atlanta Braves have the #1
bullpen, #20 offense, and are rated #28 in fielding. They have a road
record of 37-28 (57%), ranked #4 in MLB and have Lost 1 in a row.
Chicago
Cubs have the #20 bullpen, #13 offense, and are rated #22 in fielding.
They have a home record of 32-36 (47%), ranked #22 in MLB and have Won 1
in a row.
Keep an eye on this total when it comes out. I have the total at 6.6 runs. The wind is blowing in at 8 MPH.
Arizona Diamondbacks 71-59 (55%) @ Washington Nationals 62-66 (48%)
Miley's 2nd career start.
J.
Lannan, starting for Washington Nationals, has a FIP of 4.32 (#139 in
MLB), xFIP of 4.25 (#141 in MLB), and tERA of 4.82 (#155 in MLB), with a
BABIP of .287, LOB% of 73%, and E-F of -0.71. He has a K/BB ratio of
1.35, with a WHIP of 1.44, and opponent BA of .259. His batted-ball
peripherals are: LD%: 20%, GB%: 55%, FB%: 26% for a 2.14 GB/FB ratio,
and a HR/FB of 10%.
Arizona Diamondbacks have the #11 bullpen,
#11 offense, and are rated #1 in fielding. They have a road record of
35-33 (51%), ranked #11 in MLB and have Won 2 in a row.
Washington
Nationals have the #15 bullpen, #22 offense, and are rated #20 in
fielding. They have a home record of 37-27 (58%), ranked #9 in MLB and
have Lost 2 in a row.
Pittsburgh Pirates 61-68 (47%) @ St Louis Cardinals 67-63 (52%)
C.
Morton, starting for Pittsburgh Pirates, has a FIP of 3.66 (#71 in
MLB), xFIP of 3.87 (#85 in MLB), and tERA of 4.59 (#133 in MLB), with a
BABIP of .311, LOB% of 74%, and E-F of -0.24. He has a K/BB ratio of
1.49, with a WHIP of 1.46, and opponent BA of .269. His batted-ball
peripherals are: LD%: 23%, GB%: 59%, FB%: 18% for a 3.31 GB/FB ratio,
and a HR/FB of 7%.
E. Jackson, starting for St Louis Cardinals,
has a FIP of 3.69 (#74 in MLB), xFIP of 3.55 (#42 in MLB), and tERA of
4.68 (#143 in MLB), with a BABIP of .332, LOB% of 74%, and E-F of 0.35.
He has a K/BB ratio of 2.48, with a WHIP of 1.44, and opponent BA of
.284. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 24%, GB%: 47%, FB%: 30% for a
1.57 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 10%.
Pittsburgh Pirates have
the #16 bullpen, #26 offense, and are rated #15 in fielding. They have a
road record of 30-31 (49%), ranked #16 in MLB and have Won 1 in a row.
St
Louis Cardinals have the #18 bullpen, #4 offense, and are rated #25 in
fielding. They have a home record of 32-30 (52%), ranked #16 in MLB and
have Lost 3 in a row.
Odds: PIT +141 (41%) STL -150 (60%) O/U = 8
Lean: UNDER =======================================
Houston Astros 42-88 (32%) @ San Francisco Giants 69-61 (53%)
H.
Sosa, starting for Houston Astros, has a FIP of 4.42 (#146 in MLB),
xFIP of 4.4 (#155 in MLB), and tERA of 4.53 (#125 in MLB), with a BABIP
of .288, LOB% of 59%, and E-F of 1.93. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.17, with
a WHIP of 1.35, and opponent BA of .254. His batted-ball peripherals
are: LD%: 22%, GB%: 43%, FB%: 35% for a 1.23 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of
8%.
R. Vogelsong, starting for San Francisco Giants, has a FIP
of 3.64 (#64 in MLB), xFIP of 3.91 (#89 in MLB), and tERA of 4.11 (#84
in MLB), with a BABIP of .277, LOB% of 80%, and E-F of -1.08. He has a
K/BB ratio of 2.13, with a WHIP of 1.27, and opponent BA of .235. His
batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 20%, GB%: 45%, FB%: 35% for a 1.29
GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 8%.
Houston Astros have the #27
bullpen, #23 offense, and are rated #27 in fielding. They have a road
record of 19-46 (29%), ranked #30 in MLB and have Lost 4 in a row.
San
Francisco Giants have the #3 bullpen, #29 offense, and are rated #9 in
fielding. They have a home record of 36-26 (58%), ranked #7 in MLB and
have Won 1 in a row.
Odds: HOU +206 (33%) SFG -220 (69%) O/U = 7.5
Lean: UNDER =======================================
Oakland Athletics 59-70 (46%) @ New York Yankees 77-50 (61%)
R.
Harden, starting for Oakland Athletics, has a FIP of 4.12 (#117 in
MLB), xFIP of 3.75 (#74 in MLB), and tERA of 4.01 (#74 in MLB), with a
BABIP of .254, LOB% of 79%, and E-F of -0.22. He has a K/BB ratio of
2.5, with a WHIP of 1.23, and opponent BA of .207. His batted-ball
peripherals are: LD%: 19%, GB%: 32%, FB%: 50% for a 0.64 GB/FB ratio,
and a HR/FB of 13%.
P. Hughes, starting for New York Yankees, has
a FIP of 4.86 (#190 in MLB), xFIP of 4.94 (#212 in MLB), and tERA of
5.35 (#181 in MLB), with a BABIP of .288, LOB% of 67%, and E-F of 0.75.
He has a K/BB ratio of 1.65, with a WHIP of 1.42, and opponent BA of
.273. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 23%, GB%: 32%, FB%: 46% for a
0.7 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 9%.
Oakland Athletics have the
#7 bullpen, #24 offense, and are rated #26 in fielding. They have a road
record of 24-40 (38%), ranked #26 in MLB and have Won 2 in a row.
New
York Yankees have the #2 bullpen, #1 offense, and are rated #6 in
fielding. They have a home record of 40-26 (61%), ranked #6 in MLB and
have Lost 2 in a row.
Harden already beaten Yankees once in July
and Hughes got rocked by the A's last time he faced them. Could the A's
sweep the 'Bombers' in New York?!?
Atlanta Braves 78-53 (60%) @ Chicago Cubs 57-73 (44%)
B.
Beachy, starting for Atlanta Braves, has a FIP of 3.47 (#44 in MLB),
xFIP of 3.31 (#24 in MLB), and tERA of 3.66 (#46 in MLB), with a BABIP
of .287, LOB% of 79%, and E-F of -0.15. He has a K/BB ratio of 3.75,
with a WHIP of 1.16, and opponent BA of .228. His batted-ball
peripherals are: LD%: 21%, GB%: 32%, FB%: 48% for a 0.66 GB/FB ratio,
and a HR/FB of 11%.
M. Garza, starting for Chicago Cubs, has a
FIP of 3.01 (#18 in MLB), xFIP of 3.13 (#11 in MLB), and tERA of 3.52
(#32 in MLB), with a BABIP of .309, LOB% of 69%, and E-F of 0.61. He has
a K/BB ratio of 2.96, with a WHIP of 1.29, and opponent BA of .241. His
batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 20%, GB%: 48%, FB%: 33% for a 1.46
GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 9%.
Atlanta Braves have the #1
bullpen, #20 offense, and are rated #28 in fielding. They have a road
record of 37-28 (57%), ranked #4 in MLB and have Lost 1 in a row.
Chicago
Cubs have the #20 bullpen, #13 offense, and are rated #22 in fielding.
They have a home record of 32-36 (47%), ranked #22 in MLB and have Won 1
in a row.
Keep an eye on this total when it comes out. I have the total at 6.6 runs. The wind is blowing in at 8 MPH.
Arizona Diamondbacks 71-59 (55%) @ Washington Nationals 62-66 (48%)
Miley's 2nd career start.
J.
Lannan, starting for Washington Nationals, has a FIP of 4.32 (#139 in
MLB), xFIP of 4.25 (#141 in MLB), and tERA of 4.82 (#155 in MLB), with a
BABIP of .287, LOB% of 73%, and E-F of -0.71. He has a K/BB ratio of
1.35, with a WHIP of 1.44, and opponent BA of .259. His batted-ball
peripherals are: LD%: 20%, GB%: 55%, FB%: 26% for a 2.14 GB/FB ratio,
and a HR/FB of 10%.
Arizona Diamondbacks have the #11 bullpen,
#11 offense, and are rated #1 in fielding. They have a road record of
35-33 (51%), ranked #11 in MLB and have Won 2 in a row.
Washington
Nationals have the #15 bullpen, #22 offense, and are rated #20 in
fielding. They have a home record of 37-27 (58%), ranked #9 in MLB and
have Lost 2 in a row.
Pittsburgh Pirates 61-68 (47%) @ St Louis Cardinals 67-63 (52%)
C.
Morton, starting for Pittsburgh Pirates, has a FIP of 3.66 (#71 in
MLB), xFIP of 3.87 (#85 in MLB), and tERA of 4.59 (#133 in MLB), with a
BABIP of .311, LOB% of 74%, and E-F of -0.24. He has a K/BB ratio of
1.49, with a WHIP of 1.46, and opponent BA of .269. His batted-ball
peripherals are: LD%: 23%, GB%: 59%, FB%: 18% for a 3.31 GB/FB ratio,
and a HR/FB of 7%.
E. Jackson, starting for St Louis Cardinals,
has a FIP of 3.69 (#74 in MLB), xFIP of 3.55 (#42 in MLB), and tERA of
4.68 (#143 in MLB), with a BABIP of .332, LOB% of 74%, and E-F of 0.35.
He has a K/BB ratio of 2.48, with a WHIP of 1.44, and opponent BA of
.284. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 24%, GB%: 47%, FB%: 30% for a
1.57 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 10%.
Pittsburgh Pirates have
the #16 bullpen, #26 offense, and are rated #15 in fielding. They have a
road record of 30-31 (49%), ranked #16 in MLB and have Won 1 in a row.
St
Louis Cardinals have the #18 bullpen, #4 offense, and are rated #25 in
fielding. They have a home record of 32-30 (52%), ranked #16 in MLB and
have Lost 3 in a row.
Odds: PIT +141 (41%) STL -150 (60%) O/U = 8
Lean: UNDER =======================================
Houston Astros 42-88 (32%) @ San Francisco Giants 69-61 (53%)
H.
Sosa, starting for Houston Astros, has a FIP of 4.42 (#146 in MLB),
xFIP of 4.4 (#155 in MLB), and tERA of 4.53 (#125 in MLB), with a BABIP
of .288, LOB% of 59%, and E-F of 1.93. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.17, with
a WHIP of 1.35, and opponent BA of .254. His batted-ball peripherals
are: LD%: 22%, GB%: 43%, FB%: 35% for a 1.23 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of
8%.
R. Vogelsong, starting for San Francisco Giants, has a FIP
of 3.64 (#64 in MLB), xFIP of 3.91 (#89 in MLB), and tERA of 4.11 (#84
in MLB), with a BABIP of .277, LOB% of 80%, and E-F of -1.08. He has a
K/BB ratio of 2.13, with a WHIP of 1.27, and opponent BA of .235. His
batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 20%, GB%: 45%, FB%: 35% for a 1.29
GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 8%.
Houston Astros have the #27
bullpen, #23 offense, and are rated #27 in fielding. They have a road
record of 19-46 (29%), ranked #30 in MLB and have Lost 4 in a row.
San
Francisco Giants have the #3 bullpen, #29 offense, and are rated #9 in
fielding. They have a home record of 36-26 (58%), ranked #7 in MLB and
have Won 1 in a row.
Odds: HOU +206 (33%) SFG -220 (69%) O/U = 7.5
Lean: UNDER =======================================
Oakland Athletics 59-70 (46%) @ New York Yankees 77-50 (61%)
R.
Harden, starting for Oakland Athletics, has a FIP of 4.12 (#117 in
MLB), xFIP of 3.75 (#74 in MLB), and tERA of 4.01 (#74 in MLB), with a
BABIP of .254, LOB% of 79%, and E-F of -0.22. He has a K/BB ratio of
2.5, with a WHIP of 1.23, and opponent BA of .207. His batted-ball
peripherals are: LD%: 19%, GB%: 32%, FB%: 50% for a 0.64 GB/FB ratio,
and a HR/FB of 13%.
P. Hughes, starting for New York Yankees, has
a FIP of 4.86 (#190 in MLB), xFIP of 4.94 (#212 in MLB), and tERA of
5.35 (#181 in MLB), with a BABIP of .288, LOB% of 67%, and E-F of 0.75.
He has a K/BB ratio of 1.65, with a WHIP of 1.42, and opponent BA of
.273. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 23%, GB%: 32%, FB%: 46% for a
0.7 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 9%.
Oakland Athletics have the
#7 bullpen, #24 offense, and are rated #26 in fielding. They have a road
record of 24-40 (38%), ranked #26 in MLB and have Won 2 in a row.
New
York Yankees have the #2 bullpen, #1 offense, and are rated #6 in
fielding. They have a home record of 40-26 (61%), ranked #6 in MLB and
have Lost 2 in a row.
Harden already beaten Yankees once in July
and Hughes got rocked by the A's last time he faced them. Could the A's
sweep the 'Bombers' in New York?!?
Detroit Tigers 70-59 (54%) @ Tampa Bay Rays 70-58 (55%)
D.
Fister, starting for Detroit Tigers, has a FIP of 3.31 (#34 in MLB),
xFIP of 3.93 (#95 in MLB), and tERA of 3.61 (#38 in MLB), with a BABIP
of .294, LOB% of 71%, and E-F of 0.18. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.97, with
a WHIP of 1.21, and opponent BA of .258. His batted-ball peripherals
are: LD%: 20%, GB%: 47%, FB%: 33% for a 1.42 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of
5%.
J. Hellickson, starting for Tampa Bay Rays, has a FIP of
4.21 (#128 in MLB), xFIP of 4.56 (#178 in MLB), and tERA of 4.42 (#113
in MLB), with a BABIP of .235, LOB% of 80%, and E-F of -1.17. He has a
K/BB ratio of 1.86, with a WHIP of 1.16, and opponent BA of .215. His
batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 21%, GB%: 33%, FB%: 47% for a 0.7
GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 8%.
Detroit Tigers have the #24
bullpen, #5 offense, and are rated #24 in fielding. They have a road
record of 33-32 (51%), ranked #13 in MLB and have Lost 1 in a row.
Tampa
Bay Rays have the #26 bullpen, #16 offense, and are rated #5 in
fielding. They have a home record of 35-30 (54%), ranked #13 in MLB and
have Won 1 in a row.
Odds: DET +132 (43%) TBR -140 (58%) O/U = 8
Lean: Tigers + UNDER =======================================
J.
Reyes, starting for Baltimore Orioles, has a FIP of 4.96 (#193 in MLB),
xFIP of 4.61 (#186 in MLB), and tERA of 5.5 (#196 in MLB), with a BABIP
of .322, LOB% of 66%, and E-F of 0.52. He has a K/BB ratio of 1.76,
with a WHIP of 1.59, and opponent BA of .301. His batted-ball
peripherals are: LD%: 22%, GB%: 40%, FB%: 39% for a 1.02 GB/FB ratio,
and a HR/FB of 10%.
F. Liriano, starting for Minnesota Twins, has
a FIP of 4.52 (#152 in MLB), xFIP of 4.41 (#159 in MLB), and tERA of
4.34 (#105 in MLB), with a BABIP of .285, LOB% of 68%, and E-F of 0.33.
He has a K/BB ratio of 1.53, with a WHIP of 1.45, and opponent BA of
.243. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 16%, GB%: 48%, FB%: 36% for a
1.32 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 11%.
Baltimore Orioles have the
#27 bullpen, #15 offense, and are rated #30 in fielding. They have a
road record of 21-42 (33%), ranked #28 in MLB and have Won 3 in a row.
Minnesota
Twins have the #30 bullpen, #26 offense, and are rated #13 in fielding.
They have a home record of 28-36 (44%), ranked #26 in MLB and have Lost
4 in a row.
Odds: BAL +150 (40%) MIN -160 (62%) O/U = 9
Lean: MIN (but way juiced up!) =======================================
Kansas City Royals 53-77 (41%) @ Toronto Blue Jays 66-63 (51%)
J.
Francis, starting for Kansas City Royals, has a FIP of 3.98 (#101 in
MLB), xFIP of 4.13 (#124 in MLB), and tERA of 4.38 (#112 in MLB), with a
BABIP of .315, LOB% of 67%, and E-F of 0.91. He has a K/BB ratio of
2.63, with a WHIP of 1.41, and opponent BA of .293. His batted-ball
peripherals are: LD%: 19%, GB%: 47%, FB%: 35% for a 1.33 GB/FB ratio,
and a HR/FB of 8%.
B. Cecil, starting for Toronto Blue Jays, has a
FIP of 4.82 (#182 in MLB), xFIP of 4.44 (#164 in MLB), and tERA of 5.01
(#163 in MLB), with a BABIP of .25, LOB% of 76%, and E-F of -0.58. He
has a K/BB ratio of 1.94, with a WHIP of 1.26, and opponent BA of .234.
His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 19%, GB%: 35%, FB%: 46% for a 0.77
GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 11%.
Kansas City Royals have the #23
bullpen, #12 offense, and are rated #14 in fielding. They have a road
record of 20-40 (33%), ranked #28 in MLB and have Lost 1 in a row.
Toronto
Blue Jays have the #19 bullpen, #6 offense, and are rated #19 in
fielding. They have a home record of 32-30 (52%), ranked #16 in MLB and
have Won 1 in a row.
Odds: KCR +155 (39%) TOR -165 (62%) O/U = 9
Lean: OVER =======================================
Boston Red Sox 79-50 (61%) @ Texas Rangers 74-57 (57%)
A.
Miller, starting for Boston Red Sox, has a FIP of 5.11 (#201 in MLB),
xFIP of 5.05 (#217 in MLB), and tERA of 6.11 (#210 in MLB), with a BABIP
of .318, LOB% of 72%, and E-F of -0.19. He has a K/BB ratio of 1.04,
with a WHIP of 1.77, and opponent BA of .289. His batted-ball
peripherals are: LD%: 23%, GB%: 43%, FB%: 34% for a 1.24 GB/FB ratio,
and a HR/FB of 10%.
A. Ogando, starting for Texas Rangers, has a
FIP of 3.47 (#44 in MLB), xFIP of 3.88 (#86 in MLB), and tERA of 4.31
(#103 in MLB), with a BABIP of .265, LOB% of 73%, and E-F of -0.17. He
has a K/BB ratio of 2.89, with a WHIP of 1.12, and opponent BA of .23.
His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 23%, GB%: 37%, FB%: 40% for a 0.92
GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 7%.
Boston Red Sox have the #4
bullpen, #2 offense, and are rated #2 in fielding. They have a road
record of 41-26 (61%), ranked #1 in MLB and have Won 2 in a row.
Texas
Rangers have the #29 bullpen, #3 offense, and are rated #7 in fielding.
They have a home record of 40-25 (62%), ranked #4 in MLB and have Lost 2
in a row.
Odds: BOS +157 (39%) TEX -167 (63%) O/U = 10
Lean: Rangers + OVER =======================================
Detroit Tigers 70-59 (54%) @ Tampa Bay Rays 70-58 (55%)
D.
Fister, starting for Detroit Tigers, has a FIP of 3.31 (#34 in MLB),
xFIP of 3.93 (#95 in MLB), and tERA of 3.61 (#38 in MLB), with a BABIP
of .294, LOB% of 71%, and E-F of 0.18. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.97, with
a WHIP of 1.21, and opponent BA of .258. His batted-ball peripherals
are: LD%: 20%, GB%: 47%, FB%: 33% for a 1.42 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of
5%.
J. Hellickson, starting for Tampa Bay Rays, has a FIP of
4.21 (#128 in MLB), xFIP of 4.56 (#178 in MLB), and tERA of 4.42 (#113
in MLB), with a BABIP of .235, LOB% of 80%, and E-F of -1.17. He has a
K/BB ratio of 1.86, with a WHIP of 1.16, and opponent BA of .215. His
batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 21%, GB%: 33%, FB%: 47% for a 0.7
GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 8%.
Detroit Tigers have the #24
bullpen, #5 offense, and are rated #24 in fielding. They have a road
record of 33-32 (51%), ranked #13 in MLB and have Lost 1 in a row.
Tampa
Bay Rays have the #26 bullpen, #16 offense, and are rated #5 in
fielding. They have a home record of 35-30 (54%), ranked #13 in MLB and
have Won 1 in a row.
Odds: DET +132 (43%) TBR -140 (58%) O/U = 8
Lean: Tigers + UNDER =======================================
J.
Reyes, starting for Baltimore Orioles, has a FIP of 4.96 (#193 in MLB),
xFIP of 4.61 (#186 in MLB), and tERA of 5.5 (#196 in MLB), with a BABIP
of .322, LOB% of 66%, and E-F of 0.52. He has a K/BB ratio of 1.76,
with a WHIP of 1.59, and opponent BA of .301. His batted-ball
peripherals are: LD%: 22%, GB%: 40%, FB%: 39% for a 1.02 GB/FB ratio,
and a HR/FB of 10%.
F. Liriano, starting for Minnesota Twins, has
a FIP of 4.52 (#152 in MLB), xFIP of 4.41 (#159 in MLB), and tERA of
4.34 (#105 in MLB), with a BABIP of .285, LOB% of 68%, and E-F of 0.33.
He has a K/BB ratio of 1.53, with a WHIP of 1.45, and opponent BA of
.243. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 16%, GB%: 48%, FB%: 36% for a
1.32 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 11%.
Baltimore Orioles have the
#27 bullpen, #15 offense, and are rated #30 in fielding. They have a
road record of 21-42 (33%), ranked #28 in MLB and have Won 3 in a row.
Minnesota
Twins have the #30 bullpen, #26 offense, and are rated #13 in fielding.
They have a home record of 28-36 (44%), ranked #26 in MLB and have Lost
4 in a row.
Odds: BAL +150 (40%) MIN -160 (62%) O/U = 9
Lean: MIN (but way juiced up!) =======================================
Kansas City Royals 53-77 (41%) @ Toronto Blue Jays 66-63 (51%)
J.
Francis, starting for Kansas City Royals, has a FIP of 3.98 (#101 in
MLB), xFIP of 4.13 (#124 in MLB), and tERA of 4.38 (#112 in MLB), with a
BABIP of .315, LOB% of 67%, and E-F of 0.91. He has a K/BB ratio of
2.63, with a WHIP of 1.41, and opponent BA of .293. His batted-ball
peripherals are: LD%: 19%, GB%: 47%, FB%: 35% for a 1.33 GB/FB ratio,
and a HR/FB of 8%.
B. Cecil, starting for Toronto Blue Jays, has a
FIP of 4.82 (#182 in MLB), xFIP of 4.44 (#164 in MLB), and tERA of 5.01
(#163 in MLB), with a BABIP of .25, LOB% of 76%, and E-F of -0.58. He
has a K/BB ratio of 1.94, with a WHIP of 1.26, and opponent BA of .234.
His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 19%, GB%: 35%, FB%: 46% for a 0.77
GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 11%.
Kansas City Royals have the #23
bullpen, #12 offense, and are rated #14 in fielding. They have a road
record of 20-40 (33%), ranked #28 in MLB and have Lost 1 in a row.
Toronto
Blue Jays have the #19 bullpen, #6 offense, and are rated #19 in
fielding. They have a home record of 32-30 (52%), ranked #16 in MLB and
have Won 1 in a row.
Odds: KCR +155 (39%) TOR -165 (62%) O/U = 9
Lean: OVER =======================================
Boston Red Sox 79-50 (61%) @ Texas Rangers 74-57 (57%)
A.
Miller, starting for Boston Red Sox, has a FIP of 5.11 (#201 in MLB),
xFIP of 5.05 (#217 in MLB), and tERA of 6.11 (#210 in MLB), with a BABIP
of .318, LOB% of 72%, and E-F of -0.19. He has a K/BB ratio of 1.04,
with a WHIP of 1.77, and opponent BA of .289. His batted-ball
peripherals are: LD%: 23%, GB%: 43%, FB%: 34% for a 1.24 GB/FB ratio,
and a HR/FB of 10%.
A. Ogando, starting for Texas Rangers, has a
FIP of 3.47 (#44 in MLB), xFIP of 3.88 (#86 in MLB), and tERA of 4.31
(#103 in MLB), with a BABIP of .265, LOB% of 73%, and E-F of -0.17. He
has a K/BB ratio of 2.89, with a WHIP of 1.12, and opponent BA of .23.
His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 23%, GB%: 37%, FB%: 40% for a 0.92
GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 7%.
Boston Red Sox have the #4
bullpen, #2 offense, and are rated #2 in fielding. They have a road
record of 41-26 (61%), ranked #1 in MLB and have Won 2 in a row.
Texas
Rangers have the #29 bullpen, #3 offense, and are rated #7 in fielding.
They have a home record of 40-25 (62%), ranked #4 in MLB and have Lost 2
in a row.
Odds: BOS +157 (39%) TEX -167 (63%) O/U = 10
Lean: Rangers + OVER =======================================
Total in the ATL/CHI game opened at Over 7 (-125) on my local.
Bodio, I know you like L/R splits for pitchers.. so check out Jeff Francis' numbers against righties. The Blue Jays will probably have 7 right-handed bats in the line-up today. They've been ripe with power lately - so I think they can put up some serious runs tonight. My model has the game at 10.6 total runs. I lean over and I lean on Jays to win (but the juice doesn't seem worth the squeeze with Cecil pitching). Let me know what you think.
Total in the ATL/CHI game opened at Over 7 (-125) on my local.
Bodio, I know you like L/R splits for pitchers.. so check out Jeff Francis' numbers against righties. The Blue Jays will probably have 7 right-handed bats in the line-up today. They've been ripe with power lately - so I think they can put up some serious runs tonight. My model has the game at 10.6 total runs. I lean over and I lean on Jays to win (but the juice doesn't seem worth the squeeze with Cecil pitching). Let me know what you think.
Partly cloudy with a 30-percent chance of rain. Winds blowing out to
center field at 15-20 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 85.
I'm guessing with the early steam to the over their expecting some balls to fly out. I'm unfamiliar with how the weather works in Chicago with totals. I know without weather involved I would jump on the under with it being at 7.5. Love the advanced stats of both pitchers and Garza has been a monster at home. Both offenses slumping a lil bit too. Like the value with the Cubs at + money as well. I also noticed Beachy's worst game was in Colorado this year. If weather is a factor maybe he'll struggle in Chitown too. What you think Bo?
Partly cloudy with a 30-percent chance of rain. Winds blowing out to
center field at 15-20 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 85.
I'm guessing with the early steam to the over their expecting some balls to fly out. I'm unfamiliar with how the weather works in Chicago with totals. I know without weather involved I would jump on the under with it being at 7.5. Love the advanced stats of both pitchers and Garza has been a monster at home. Both offenses slumping a lil bit too. Like the value with the Cubs at + money as well. I also noticed Beachy's worst game was in Colorado this year. If weather is a factor maybe he'll struggle in Chitown too. What you think Bo?
Partly cloudy with a 30-percent chance of rain. Winds blowing out to
center field at 15-20 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 85.
I'm guessing with the early steam to the over their expecting some balls to fly out. I'm unfamiliar with how the weather works in Chicago with totals. I know without weather involved I would jump on the under with it being at 7.5. Love the advanced stats of both pitchers and Garza has been a monster at home. Both offenses slumping a lil bit too. Like the value with the Cubs at + money as well. I also noticed Beachy's worst game was in Colorado this year. If weather is a factor maybe he'll struggle in Chitown too. What you think Bo?
Just saw that this damn weather report is for the weather from yesterday.
Here's today's: Partly cloudy. Winds blowing in from left field at 5-15 m.p.h.
Game-time temperature: Near 80.
Partly cloudy with a 30-percent chance of rain. Winds blowing out to
center field at 15-20 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 85.
I'm guessing with the early steam to the over their expecting some balls to fly out. I'm unfamiliar with how the weather works in Chicago with totals. I know without weather involved I would jump on the under with it being at 7.5. Love the advanced stats of both pitchers and Garza has been a monster at home. Both offenses slumping a lil bit too. Like the value with the Cubs at + money as well. I also noticed Beachy's worst game was in Colorado this year. If weather is a factor maybe he'll struggle in Chitown too. What you think Bo?
Just saw that this damn weather report is for the weather from yesterday.
Here's today's: Partly cloudy. Winds blowing in from left field at 5-15 m.p.h.
Game-time temperature: Near 80.
Beachy and Garza on the mound...Bodio has 6.6 runs in his model...books have 7.5 at -115...I'm taking the under in this game. tks again Bodio for yur analysis
Beachy and Garza on the mound...Bodio has 6.6 runs in his model...books have 7.5 at -115...I'm taking the under in this game. tks again Bodio for yur analysis
Beachy and Garza on the mound...Bodio has 6.6 runs in his model...books have 7.5 at -115...I'm taking the under in this game. tks again Bodio for yur analysis
After last nights game then U sounds to easy doesn't it? I want to roll with but haven't pulled the trigger!
Beachy and Garza on the mound...Bodio has 6.6 runs in his model...books have 7.5 at -115...I'm taking the under in this game. tks again Bodio for yur analysis
After last nights game then U sounds to easy doesn't it? I want to roll with but haven't pulled the trigger!
My model has this one at 6.6 total runs and with wind blowing in at 9 MPH at Wrigley I like this one to stay UNDER. It doesn't hurt that we have top 2 pitchers in this one going up against offenses which are struggling to score runs.
Good luck!
A couple more plays that I'm looking at right now. Final plays will be posted in a bit.
_________________ '10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130 '10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600 '10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800 '10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400 '10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400 '10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200 '10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400 '10 NBA: 151-99 @ 60% for +$42,100 '10 NBAP: 30-26 @ 54% for +$1,400 '10 NHL: 18-9 @ 67% for +$6,175 '10 NHLP: 16-7 @ 70% for +$5,575
----------------------------------- TOTAL: 415-277 @ 60% for +$107,580
"A dollar won is twice as sweet as a dollar earned"
My model has this one at 6.6 total runs and with wind blowing in at 9 MPH at Wrigley I like this one to stay UNDER. It doesn't hurt that we have top 2 pitchers in this one going up against offenses which are struggling to score runs.
Good luck!
A couple more plays that I'm looking at right now. Final plays will be posted in a bit.
_________________ '10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130 '10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600 '10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800 '10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400 '10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400 '10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200 '10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400 '10 NBA: 151-99 @ 60% for +$42,100 '10 NBAP: 30-26 @ 54% for +$1,400 '10 NHL: 18-9 @ 67% for +$6,175 '10 NHLP: 16-7 @ 70% for +$5,575
----------------------------------- TOTAL: 415-277 @ 60% for +$107,580
"A dollar won is twice as sweet as a dollar earned"
Total in the ATL/CHI game opened at Over 7 (-125) on my local.
Bodio, I know you like L/R splits for pitchers.. so check out Jeff Francis' numbers against righties. The Blue Jays will probably have 7 right-handed bats in the line-up today. They've been ripe with power lately - so I think they can put up some serious runs tonight. My model has the game at 10.6 total runs. I lean over and I lean on Jays to win (but the juice doesn't seem worth the squeeze with Cecil pitching). Let me know what you think.
One thing you forgot to mention is Cecil's L/R splits! They're very similar and KC is primarily a righty-team.
This one is definitely a game I'm looking at very close and OVER is a very strong lean. The weather is a bit of a concern though in that one....
Total in the ATL/CHI game opened at Over 7 (-125) on my local.
Bodio, I know you like L/R splits for pitchers.. so check out Jeff Francis' numbers against righties. The Blue Jays will probably have 7 right-handed bats in the line-up today. They've been ripe with power lately - so I think they can put up some serious runs tonight. My model has the game at 10.6 total runs. I lean over and I lean on Jays to win (but the juice doesn't seem worth the squeeze with Cecil pitching). Let me know what you think.
One thing you forgot to mention is Cecil's L/R splits! They're very similar and KC is primarily a righty-team.
This one is definitely a game I'm looking at very close and OVER is a very strong lean. The weather is a bit of a concern though in that one....
Partly cloudy with a 30-percent chance of rain. Winds blowing out to center field at 15-20 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 85.
I'm guessing with the early steam to the over their expecting some balls to fly out. I'm unfamiliar with how the weather works in Chicago with totals. I know without weather involved I would jump on the under with it being at 7.5. Love the advanced stats of both pitchers and Garza has been a monster at home. Both offenses slumping a lil bit too. Like the value with the Cubs at + money as well. I also noticed Beachy's worst game was in Colorado this year. If weather is a factor maybe he'll struggle in Chitown too. What you think Bo?
Partly cloudy with a 30-percent chance of rain. Winds blowing out to center field at 15-20 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 85.
I'm guessing with the early steam to the over their expecting some balls to fly out. I'm unfamiliar with how the weather works in Chicago with totals. I know without weather involved I would jump on the under with it being at 7.5. Love the advanced stats of both pitchers and Garza has been a monster at home. Both offenses slumping a lil bit too. Like the value with the Cubs at + money as well. I also noticed Beachy's worst game was in Colorado this year. If weather is a factor maybe he'll struggle in Chitown too. What you think Bo?
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