Posted:
#51
Best of Luck 
0
Bodio's MLB Mon 04/18
Posted:
#54
Quote Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:
Appreciate your input. Hopefully it wont come in to effect on the cincy game later and we both win. BOL to ya tonight
Appreciate your input. Hopefully it wont come in to effect on the cincy game later and we both win. BOL to ya tonight
Yeah, you too buddy. I hope cincy wins by 2+ today...
But do you understand my point that you have to account for the 'opportunity cost' of losing out on the 30% of 1-run winners in your 'odds' calculation? I hope it made sense, because you are disregarding that completely right now. (Or at least that's what I understood from your explanation)
either way, great discussion! Good luck today and always!
0
Posted:
#55
Quote Originally Posted by RoosterKing:
With you on all three B. Leaning CHW under 7.5... don't see who will score for TB. What are your thoughts? Thanks!
With you on all three B. Leaning CHW under 7.5... don't see who will score for TB. What are your thoughts? Thanks!
Yeah, that was my initial lean too, but then I saw how successful Konerko and Rios have been off Price, and decided to pass on that total. If I remember correctly, Price threw 110+ pitches last time out. He's solid, so that's not a great concern, but he could have a bit of a 'let-down' game tonight
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Let's go Cincy!!!
Posted:
#61
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:
Yeah, you too buddy. I hope cincy wins by 2+ today...
But do you understand my point that you have to account for the 'opportunity cost' of losing out on the 30% of 1-run winners in your 'odds' calculation? I hope it made sense, because you are disregarding that completely right now. (Or at least that's what I understood from your explanation)
either way, great discussion! Good luck today and always!
sorry to interrupt the convo between you two - i understand your logic in accounting for the lost opp cost bodio, but do not remember the math behind it.
0
go Reds RL
Posted:
#67
[Quote: Originally Posted by bodio]
_________________
'10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130
'10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600
'10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800
'10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400
'10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400
'10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200
'10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400
--------------------------------------------------------------
'TOTAL: 200-136 @ 60% for +$52,330
......... heres to hoping edwin can right the ship versus his former team
2011 MLB Record:
18 - 13 @ 58% for +3.98 Units
Mon, 04/18
#1: Cincinnati Reds -165
Last game of this 4-game series against the Pirates, who have won 2 of the first 3 in this one. We have a big pitching advantage for the Reds in this one. Wood has an ERA of 3.86 on the season but his FIP is an impressive 2.85. As good as he's been, his +1.01 E-F variance indicates that he is bound to get even better as the season goes on. Wood has a 7.71 K/9 ratio and 3.20 K/BB, indicating that he overpowers hitters, and against this Pittsburgh lineup I expect similar results. Wood faced the Pirates once last year and held them to 1 hit in 16 AB's. I wouldn't be surprised of a similar output tonight as Pittsburgh is scoring 2.5 rpg and batting .160 against lefty starters this year.
Correia, is a very over-valued pitcher. His 3.15 K/9 ratio and 1.40 K/BB are some of the worst in the league. Even though his ERA is 2.70, his FIP of 3.76 indicates an E-F variance of -1.06, thus regression to the negative is in order. Couple that with a very lucky BABIP of .235 and an xFIP north of 5.0, and we have a pitcher that is bound to regress in a very major way. This Reds lineup is batting .324 lifetime off Correia, with an OBP of .387 and OPS of .857. In 9 home games so far this year, Reds are averaging 7.0 rpg, while batting .323 with an OBP of .389. Something tells me that Correia regression in 'stats' will come sooner, rather than later.
Pirates are 3-8 in their last 11 against a lefty starter and 0-4 following a win. Add in the fact that the Reds are 13-5 (72%) in their last 18 meetings with the Pirates at home, and I'll gladly lay the -165 odds, which translates to 62% winning.
#2: San Francisco Giants -120
A couple of factors in this one. Statistically, Lincecum is a better pitcher than Rogers. Where he really differentiates is that this season he has a sick 5.50 K/BB ratio compared to only 1.80 K/BB for Rogers, who walks 3.46 batters per 9 innings. Rogers threw 106 pitches in his last outing. We have to remember that he was a middle reliever last year, thus not used to throwing this many pitches on a regular basis. How will he perform today? Well, in his first start of the season, Rogers pitched 7.1 innings, gave up 4 hits and only 1 ER. He had 7K's to 1 BB in that one. Fact is though, he did it against Pittsburgh Pirates, so his performance needs to be discounted somewhat. In his next outing, against the Mets, he threw 5.2 innings, gave up 7 hits, and 3 ER's. He walked 4 and only had 2 K's. in that one. His strike % went from 66% in the first game to a 'below-average', 59% in game 2. I anticipate he struggles tonight. I know the Giants are traveling for this one, but with Lincecum on the mound it shouldn't be a factor. In his last 2 outings against Colorado he has given up 7 hits and 2 ER's in 16 innings pitched. His K/BB ratio in those two games: 18 to 1. Now facing Rockies' 5th starter and at these short-odds, I have to make a play here.
#3: Chicago White Sox +110
I expected Edwin Jackson to come out a bit sluggish in his last outing after throwing 119 pitches in the game before. That said, I expect him to rebound tonight. Jackson has an FIP of 2.31 (12th best) and xFIP of 2.49 (4th best) this year. His E-F of +.58 and an unlucky BABIP o f .313 indicates that he can only get better statistically. With a ridiculous 11.57 K/9 ratio and going up against a Rays team that is #4 in most strike-outs in AL, I expect to see a dominant performance from Jackson tonight. Throw in the fact that the current Rays hitters are batting .191 off him with an OBP of .285 and OPS of .511, and I like Jackson's chances even better.
Jackson will be opposed by David Price tonight, who had an FIp of 3.69 (#57) and xFIP of 4.59 (#97) this season. His BABIP of .273 indicates that he's been somewhat lucky this year, and with a GB% of only 38%, I expect those numbers to regress to the negative going forward. Current Sox lineup is batting .305 with an OBP of .387 and OPS of .899 off him. Particularly Paul Konerko (6 for 12 with 1 HR and 5 RBI) and Alex Rios (7 for 11 with 2 HR's, 2 2B; 1 3B and 6 RBI) have had a lot of success off him. I know Sox are on a losing streak, but in 5 road games this year, they've averaged 8 rpg while batting .314 with OBP of .363. Maybe going on the road is exactly what this team needs.
I know that the Rays have taken 3 of 4 from Minnesota over the weekend. But it's important to note that 2 of those victories happened due to 2 improbable come-backs. First one was due to them scoring 2 runs in the bottom of the 10th on a walk-off HR. The second victory was due to the Rays scoring 3 runs in the last 2 innings, ending in a walk-off single. The hero in both of those games? Johnny Damon of course. Well, he hasn't been able to 'squeeze' anything with his hand after getting hit on it yesterday. Not sure if he'll be able to play, but even if he is, how effective will he be? This lineup is already missing Longoria and Ramirez, and without Damon, I don't see them being much of a thread here, even against this 'explosive' (not in a good way) White Sox bullpen. I like Chicago snap their losing streak on the road tonight.
Good luck!
18 - 13 @ 58% for +3.98 Units
Mon, 04/18
#1: Cincinnati Reds -165
Last game of this 4-game series against the Pirates, who have won 2 of the first 3 in this one. We have a big pitching advantage for the Reds in this one. Wood has an ERA of 3.86 on the season but his FIP is an impressive 2.85. As good as he's been, his +1.01 E-F variance indicates that he is bound to get even better as the season goes on. Wood has a 7.71 K/9 ratio and 3.20 K/BB, indicating that he overpowers hitters, and against this Pittsburgh lineup I expect similar results. Wood faced the Pirates once last year and held them to 1 hit in 16 AB's. I wouldn't be surprised of a similar output tonight as Pittsburgh is scoring 2.5 rpg and batting .160 against lefty starters this year.
Correia, is a very over-valued pitcher. His 3.15 K/9 ratio and 1.40 K/BB are some of the worst in the league. Even though his ERA is 2.70, his FIP of 3.76 indicates an E-F variance of -1.06, thus regression to the negative is in order. Couple that with a very lucky BABIP of .235 and an xFIP north of 5.0, and we have a pitcher that is bound to regress in a very major way. This Reds lineup is batting .324 lifetime off Correia, with an OBP of .387 and OPS of .857. In 9 home games so far this year, Reds are averaging 7.0 rpg, while batting .323 with an OBP of .389. Something tells me that Correia regression in 'stats' will come sooner, rather than later.
Pirates are 3-8 in their last 11 against a lefty starter and 0-4 following a win. Add in the fact that the Reds are 13-5 (72%) in their last 18 meetings with the Pirates at home, and I'll gladly lay the -165 odds, which translates to 62% winning.
#2: San Francisco Giants -120
A couple of factors in this one. Statistically, Lincecum is a better pitcher than Rogers. Where he really differentiates is that this season he has a sick 5.50 K/BB ratio compared to only 1.80 K/BB for Rogers, who walks 3.46 batters per 9 innings. Rogers threw 106 pitches in his last outing. We have to remember that he was a middle reliever last year, thus not used to throwing this many pitches on a regular basis. How will he perform today? Well, in his first start of the season, Rogers pitched 7.1 innings, gave up 4 hits and only 1 ER. He had 7K's to 1 BB in that one. Fact is though, he did it against Pittsburgh Pirates, so his performance needs to be discounted somewhat. In his next outing, against the Mets, he threw 5.2 innings, gave up 7 hits, and 3 ER's. He walked 4 and only had 2 K's. in that one. His strike % went from 66% in the first game to a 'below-average', 59% in game 2. I anticipate he struggles tonight. I know the Giants are traveling for this one, but with Lincecum on the mound it shouldn't be a factor. In his last 2 outings against Colorado he has given up 7 hits and 2 ER's in 16 innings pitched. His K/BB ratio in those two games: 18 to 1. Now facing Rockies' 5th starter and at these short-odds, I have to make a play here.
#3: Chicago White Sox +110
I expected Edwin Jackson to come out a bit sluggish in his last outing after throwing 119 pitches in the game before. That said, I expect him to rebound tonight. Jackson has an FIP of 2.31 (12th best) and xFIP of 2.49 (4th best) this year. His E-F of +.58 and an unlucky BABIP o f .313 indicates that he can only get better statistically. With a ridiculous 11.57 K/9 ratio and going up against a Rays team that is #4 in most strike-outs in AL, I expect to see a dominant performance from Jackson tonight. Throw in the fact that the current Rays hitters are batting .191 off him with an OBP of .285 and OPS of .511, and I like Jackson's chances even better.
Jackson will be opposed by David Price tonight, who had an FIp of 3.69 (#57) and xFIP of 4.59 (#97) this season. His BABIP of .273 indicates that he's been somewhat lucky this year, and with a GB% of only 38%, I expect those numbers to regress to the negative going forward. Current Sox lineup is batting .305 with an OBP of .387 and OPS of .899 off him. Particularly Paul Konerko (6 for 12 with 1 HR and 5 RBI) and Alex Rios (7 for 11 with 2 HR's, 2 2B; 1 3B and 6 RBI) have had a lot of success off him. I know Sox are on a losing streak, but in 5 road games this year, they've averaged 8 rpg while batting .314 with OBP of .363. Maybe going on the road is exactly what this team needs.
I know that the Rays have taken 3 of 4 from Minnesota over the weekend. But it's important to note that 2 of those victories happened due to 2 improbable come-backs. First one was due to them scoring 2 runs in the bottom of the 10th on a walk-off HR. The second victory was due to the Rays scoring 3 runs in the last 2 innings, ending in a walk-off single. The hero in both of those games? Johnny Damon of course. Well, he hasn't been able to 'squeeze' anything with his hand after getting hit on it yesterday. Not sure if he'll be able to play, but even if he is, how effective will he be? This lineup is already missing Longoria and Ramirez, and without Damon, I don't see them being much of a thread here, even against this 'explosive' (not in a good way) White Sox bullpen. I like Chicago snap their losing streak on the road tonight.
Good luck!
_________________
'10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130
'10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600
'10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800
'10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400
'10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400
'10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200
'10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400
--------------------------------------------------------------
'TOTAL: 200-136 @ 60% for +$52,330
......... heres to hoping edwin can right the ship versus his former team
0
Posted:
#75
Quote Originally Posted by vision23x:
I keep asking this question but is 60% really that good? I mean it's slightly better than a coin flip but in 3 months he's peaked at 60%... meaning there's no guarantee that he'll continue at this mediocre pace.
I keep asking this question but is 60% really that good? I mean it's slightly better than a coin flip but in 3 months he's peaked at 60%... meaning there's no guarantee that he'll continue at this mediocre pace.
i have an
how about you stop bitching if your gonna tail(which it's obvious you are) and pick games yourself?
0
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