Posted:
#1
2011 MLB Record:
18 - 13 @ 58% for +3.98 Units
Mon, 04/18
#1: Cincinnati Reds -165
Last game of this 4-game series against the Pirates, who have won 2 of the first 3 in this one. We have a big pitching advantage for the Reds in this one. Wood has an ERA of 3.86 on the season but his FIP is an impressive 2.85. As good as he's been, his +1.01 E-F variance indicates that he is bound to get even better as the season goes on. Wood has a 7.71 K/9 ratio and 3.20 K/BB, indicating that he overpowers hitters, and against this Pittsburgh lineup I expect similar results. Wood faced the Pirates once last year and held them to 1 hit in 16 AB's. I wouldn't be surprised of a similar output tonight as Pittsburgh is scoring 2.5 rpg and batting .160 against lefty starters this year.
Correia, is a very over-valued pitcher. His 3.15 K/9 ratio and 1.40 K/BB are some of the worst in the league. Even though his ERA is 2.70, his FIP of 3.76 indicates an E-F variance of -1.06, thus regression to the negative is in order. Couple that with a very lucky BABIP of .235 and an xFIP north of 5.0, and we have a pitcher that is bound to regress in a very major way. This Reds lineup is batting .324 lifetime off Correia, with an OBP of .387 and OPS of .857. In 9 home games so far this year, Reds are averaging 7.0 rpg, while batting .323 with an OBP of .389. Something tells me that Correia regression in 'stats' will come sooner, rather than later.
Pirates are 3-8 in their last 11 against a lefty starter and 0-4 following a win. Add in the fact that the Reds are 13-5 (72%) in their last 18 meetings with the Pirates at home, and I'll gladly lay the -165 odds, which translates to 62% winning.
#2: San Francisco Giants -120
A couple of factors in this one. Statistically, Lincecum is a better pitcher than Rogers. Where he really differentiates is that this season he has a sick 5.50 K/BB ratio compared to only 1.80 K/BB for Rogers, who walks 3.46 batters per 9 innings. Rogers threw 106 pitches in his last outing. We have to remember that he was a middle reliever last year, thus not used to throwing this many pitches on a regular basis. How will he perform today? Well, in his first start of the season, Rogers pitched 7.1 innings, gave up 4 hits and only 1 ER. He had 7K's to 1 BB in that one. Fact is though, he did it against Pittsburgh Pirates, so his performance needs to be discounted somewhat. In his next outing, against the Mets, he threw 5.2 innings, gave up 7 hits, and 3 ER's. He walked 4 and only had 2 K's. in that one. His strike % went from 66% in the first game to a 'below-average', 59% in game 2. I anticipate he struggles tonight. I know the Giants are traveling for this one, but with Lincecum on the mound it shouldn't be a factor. In his last 2 outings against Colorado he has given up 7 hits and 2 ER's in 16 innings pitched. His K/BB ratio in those two games: 18 to 1. Now facing Rockies' 5th starter and at these short-odds, I have to make a play here.
#3: Chicago White Sox +110
I expected Edwin Jackson to come out a bit sluggish in his last outing after throwing 119 pitches in the game before. That said, I expect him to rebound tonight. Jackson has an FIP of 2.31 (12th best) and xFIP of 2.49 (4th best) this year. His E-F of +.58 and an unlucky BABIP o f .313 indicates that he can only get better statistically. With a ridiculous 11.57 K/9 ratio and going up against a Rays team that is #4 in most strike-outs in AL, I expect to see a dominant performance from Jackson tonight. Throw in the fact that the current Rays hitters are batting .191 off him with an OBP of .285 and OPS of .511, and I like Jackson's chances even better.
Jackson will be opposed by David Price tonight, who had an FIp of 3.69 (#57) and xFIP of 4.59 (#97) this season. His BABIP of .273 indicates that he's been somewhat lucky this year, and with a GB% of only 38%, I expect those numbers to regress to the negative going forward. Current Sox lineup is batting .305 with an OBP of .387 and OPS of .899 off him. Particularly Paul Konerko (6 for 12 with 1 HR and 5 RBI) and Alex Rios (7 for 11 with 2 HR's, 2 2B; 1 3B and 6 RBI) have had a lot of success off him. I know Sox are on a losing streak, but in 5 road games this year, they've averaged 8 rpg while batting .314 with OBP of .363. Maybe going on the road is exactly what this team needs.
I know that the Rays have taken 3 of 4 from Minnesota over the weekend. But it's important to note that 2 of those victories happened due to 2 improbable come-backs. First one was due to them scoring 2 runs in the bottom of the 10th on a walk-off HR. The second victory was due to the Rays scoring 3 runs in the last 2 innings, ending in a walk-off single. The hero in both of those games? Johnny Damon of course. Well, he hasn't been able to 'squeeze' anything with his hand after getting hit on it yesterday. Not sure if he'll be able to play, but even if he is, how effective will he be? This lineup is already missing Longoria and Ramirez, and without Damon, I don't see them being much of a thread here, even against this 'explosive' (not in a good way) White Sox bullpen. I like Chicago snap their losing streak on the road tonight.
Good luck!
18 - 13 @ 58% for +3.98 Units
Mon, 04/18
#1: Cincinnati Reds -165
Last game of this 4-game series against the Pirates, who have won 2 of the first 3 in this one. We have a big pitching advantage for the Reds in this one. Wood has an ERA of 3.86 on the season but his FIP is an impressive 2.85. As good as he's been, his +1.01 E-F variance indicates that he is bound to get even better as the season goes on. Wood has a 7.71 K/9 ratio and 3.20 K/BB, indicating that he overpowers hitters, and against this Pittsburgh lineup I expect similar results. Wood faced the Pirates once last year and held them to 1 hit in 16 AB's. I wouldn't be surprised of a similar output tonight as Pittsburgh is scoring 2.5 rpg and batting .160 against lefty starters this year.
Correia, is a very over-valued pitcher. His 3.15 K/9 ratio and 1.40 K/BB are some of the worst in the league. Even though his ERA is 2.70, his FIP of 3.76 indicates an E-F variance of -1.06, thus regression to the negative is in order. Couple that with a very lucky BABIP of .235 and an xFIP north of 5.0, and we have a pitcher that is bound to regress in a very major way. This Reds lineup is batting .324 lifetime off Correia, with an OBP of .387 and OPS of .857. In 9 home games so far this year, Reds are averaging 7.0 rpg, while batting .323 with an OBP of .389. Something tells me that Correia regression in 'stats' will come sooner, rather than later.
Pirates are 3-8 in their last 11 against a lefty starter and 0-4 following a win. Add in the fact that the Reds are 13-5 (72%) in their last 18 meetings with the Pirates at home, and I'll gladly lay the -165 odds, which translates to 62% winning.
#2: San Francisco Giants -120
A couple of factors in this one. Statistically, Lincecum is a better pitcher than Rogers. Where he really differentiates is that this season he has a sick 5.50 K/BB ratio compared to only 1.80 K/BB for Rogers, who walks 3.46 batters per 9 innings. Rogers threw 106 pitches in his last outing. We have to remember that he was a middle reliever last year, thus not used to throwing this many pitches on a regular basis. How will he perform today? Well, in his first start of the season, Rogers pitched 7.1 innings, gave up 4 hits and only 1 ER. He had 7K's to 1 BB in that one. Fact is though, he did it against Pittsburgh Pirates, so his performance needs to be discounted somewhat. In his next outing, against the Mets, he threw 5.2 innings, gave up 7 hits, and 3 ER's. He walked 4 and only had 2 K's. in that one. His strike % went from 66% in the first game to a 'below-average', 59% in game 2. I anticipate he struggles tonight. I know the Giants are traveling for this one, but with Lincecum on the mound it shouldn't be a factor. In his last 2 outings against Colorado he has given up 7 hits and 2 ER's in 16 innings pitched. His K/BB ratio in those two games: 18 to 1. Now facing Rockies' 5th starter and at these short-odds, I have to make a play here.
#3: Chicago White Sox +110
I expected Edwin Jackson to come out a bit sluggish in his last outing after throwing 119 pitches in the game before. That said, I expect him to rebound tonight. Jackson has an FIP of 2.31 (12th best) and xFIP of 2.49 (4th best) this year. His E-F of +.58 and an unlucky BABIP o f .313 indicates that he can only get better statistically. With a ridiculous 11.57 K/9 ratio and going up against a Rays team that is #4 in most strike-outs in AL, I expect to see a dominant performance from Jackson tonight. Throw in the fact that the current Rays hitters are batting .191 off him with an OBP of .285 and OPS of .511, and I like Jackson's chances even better.
Jackson will be opposed by David Price tonight, who had an FIp of 3.69 (#57) and xFIP of 4.59 (#97) this season. His BABIP of .273 indicates that he's been somewhat lucky this year, and with a GB% of only 38%, I expect those numbers to regress to the negative going forward. Current Sox lineup is batting .305 with an OBP of .387 and OPS of .899 off him. Particularly Paul Konerko (6 for 12 with 1 HR and 5 RBI) and Alex Rios (7 for 11 with 2 HR's, 2 2B; 1 3B and 6 RBI) have had a lot of success off him. I know Sox are on a losing streak, but in 5 road games this year, they've averaged 8 rpg while batting .314 with OBP of .363. Maybe going on the road is exactly what this team needs.
I know that the Rays have taken 3 of 4 from Minnesota over the weekend. But it's important to note that 2 of those victories happened due to 2 improbable come-backs. First one was due to them scoring 2 runs in the bottom of the 10th on a walk-off HR. The second victory was due to the Rays scoring 3 runs in the last 2 innings, ending in a walk-off single. The hero in both of those games? Johnny Damon of course. Well, he hasn't been able to 'squeeze' anything with his hand after getting hit on it yesterday. Not sure if he'll be able to play, but even if he is, how effective will he be? This lineup is already missing Longoria and Ramirez, and without Damon, I don't see them being much of a thread here, even against this 'explosive' (not in a good way) White Sox bullpen. I like Chicago snap their losing streak on the road tonight.
Good luck!
_________________
'10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130
'10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600
'10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800
'10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400
'10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400
'10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200
'10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400
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'TOTAL: 200-136 @ 60% for +$52,330
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