• Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120)
Matchup: Dodgers @ Mets
Units: 2 Units
Model Edge: +6.7%
Freddie Freeman continues to be one of the most consistent hitters in baseball, posting a .303 AVG and .537 SLG on the season. He’s facing Tylor Megill, a right-hander who has struggled with hard contact this year (42.6% Hard Hit rate, 1.4 HR/9). Freeman owns a .980 OPS vs RHP and a .342 AVG against pitchers who throw 40%+ fastballs — Megill fits that profile. With favorable hitting weather in New York and no wind to suppress power, our model gives Freeman a 52.2% chance to clear 1.5 total bases, which gives us a +6.7% edge at +120 odds. This is a strong 2-unit play.
Matchup: Blue Jays @ Rays
Units: 1 Unit
Model Edge: +3.0%
Bassitt has gone 6+ innings in 5 of his last 7 starts and enters this matchup with a 3.88 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. The Rays have struggled to make consistent contact, ranking 24th in OBP and 22nd in pitches per plate appearance. Tropicana Field is a pitcher-friendly venue, and Tampa Bay’s recent struggles with RISP should allow Bassitt to work deeper into the game. The model projects him to record 18.1 outs on average, giving him a 51.8% chance to go over — a +3.0% edge at +105. This is a disciplined 1-unit play.
Matchup: Phillies @ Athletics
Units: 1 Unit
Model Edge: +2.9%
Wheeler is dominating with a 2.81 xERA and 0.96 WHIP across the season, and he’s been even sharper in his last 4 starts (1.97 ERA). The A’s are among the bottom 5 in team batting average and make weak contact (31st in Hard Hit rate). Wheeler is averaging just 4.8 hits allowed per outing. With a spacious Coliseum park and a low run total, the model shows a 56.4% chance of Wheeler staying under 5.5 hits — a +2.9% edge at -115. This is a value 1-unit play.
Matchup: Brewers @ Pirates
Units: 2 Units
Model Edge: +4.7%
Peralta is punching out 11.8 batters per 9 innings and ranks in the top 10% in swinging strike rate. He’s facing a Pirates team that strikes out 26.1% of the time vs RHP and has struggled with velocity all season. Peralta’s pitch mix lines up extremely well here, especially since 6 of the 9 projected Pirates starters K at least 25% of the time. The model gives Peralta a 57.1% chance to go over, which translates to a 4.7% edge at -110 — a solid 2-unit bet.
Matchup: Yankees @ Rockies
Units: 2 Units
Model Edge: +4.0%
Schmidt has quietly built a 9.7 K/9 season and brings elite command (5.8% walk rate). The Rockies, even at Coors, are striking out 25.6% vs RHP and have the 3rd lowest team OBP. While Coors Field can inflate offense, the Rockies’ current lineup features 5 hitters with a K rate north of 26%. With no significant wind and a favorable umpire behind the plate, the model puts Schmidt’s K probability at 54.0%, which gives us a 4.0% edge at even money. That qualifies as a confident 2-unit play.
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