AL BREAKDOWN 5-3-13

AL BREAKDOWN 5-3-13

8.5 TWINS@CLE- Solid starting pitching (Hernandez 2.35, 1.17 in 15 innings) could be offset by CLE .321, 8.50 r/9 in L10 vs. LHP, and MIN good history (Florimon Dozier Parmalee) against Masterson. 1^st 5 over might be a play. Both bullpens are hot at the moment.

8 NYY @ OAK- Here we have a nice OVER vs. OVER situation- Combined OVER of 9-1 in L5. OAK OVER of 24-5 on the season. The number has been at 8 or 8.5 in 9 of OAK L10, and in those games the Over is 9-1. Tonight’s is set at 8. Though Sabathia has proven to throw 8 quality innings on a regular basis, and Moss, Donaldson, and Cespedes are a combined 1-18 against him, Sabathia has still given up 5 HR in his L2 starts. AJ Griffin started the year with 3 straight gems but has now cooled (11 ER in 11 IP in L2.)

7.5 SEA @ TOR- Bluejays bullpen 6.75 L5. There’s usually one top to bottom lopsided pitching match- up. M’s bullpen 2.50 L5 and Felix Hernandez is on fire. Romero finished 2012 strong but is a complete question mark.  Ackley, Bay and Montero all have an OPS over 1.000 against Romero. Morse seems to be back in stride as well.

9 BOS @ TEX- BOS is batting .282, 6.32 r/9 and TEX is batting .276, 4.50 vs. LHP in L10. OVER is 7-2-1 in BOS L10. Bullpen ERA L10: BOS 5.54 and TEX 5.11. Beltre, Cruz and Kinsler have had success against Dubront in a small sample size of 16 combined AB. For the record, Ortiz, Pedroia, and Ellsburry are a combined 7-33 with 1 HR vs. Holland.

7.5 KC @ CHW- It’s not much of a factor, however UNDER has cashed in 7 straight meetings including 3 this year. OVER is 7-1-1 in KC L9. Bullpens: CHW 6.12 and KC 1.36 in L10. Guthrie has pitched well however the pattern of ER in April was 1-4-2-4-0-… fill in the blank.  Axlerod has posted 3 straight QS. CHW current line- up has 6 HR in 174 AB and is batting .201 vs. Guthrie in Career (Konerko and Dunn are 11-64, 3 HR.) There’s a jam of conflicting info however, 7.5 still seems low to me.

8 DET @ HOU- DET bullpen has finally logged some quality innings (1.72 in L5 and 3.00 in L10,) however are coming off a 14 inning game last night. HOU is batting .224, 3.28 in L10 vs RHP and Fister has pitched well (2.38, 1.03 this year.)  Parlaying Fister to win with the Over is 4-1 thus far. Parlaying HOU to lose with the Over is 5-2-1 in L8 (7 games at NYY and BOS) Fielder is 5-19, 1HR vs. Norris and Chris Carter is 2-5 1HR vs. Fister. There is very limited history other than that.

8.5 BAL @ LAA- Vargas owns a 7.21 ERA in 16 IP at night. Both pens have been shaky in L5 (BAL 4.91, LAA 6.10.) BAL vs. LHP .200, 2.41r/9 and LAA vs. RHP .225, 3.42 r/9 in L10. Chris Davis, Adam Jones, and Matt Wieters are a combined 11-44, 0 HR, 2 RBI against Vargas.