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8/11 - MLB Breakdown Sheets

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Posted: #26
Thanks for the breakdowns silly..will you be updating the pitcher stats on redsox game...
 
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Posted: #27
Quote Originally Posted by whisperman:

Thanks for the breakdowns silly..will you be updating the pitcher stats on redsox game...

Already took care of it.  Had very little affect on the projection.
 
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Posted: #28
Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:


Both of those plays intrigue me.


I was bummed to see that the Dodgers ended straight on the actual ML with your sheets as I really like Blanton today
 
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Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:


Already took care of it.  Had very little affect on the projection.


You have Doubront listed as red sox pitcher..believe it should be Morales..
 
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Posted: #30
Just saw the change..thanks..
 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by aaustinova67:

Looks good silly....thanks for the info!

Came in here to evaluate the Royals chances tomorrow....

I like em

back on board I see 
 
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Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by guil0000:



I was bummed to see that the Dodgers ended straight on the actual ML with your sheets as I really like Blanton today

Me too.  I may end up sacrificing value to play the Dodgers.  Blanton has been pitching very well lately.
 
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Posted: #33
What are your top leans so far?
 
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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by WinSeeker:

What are your top leans so far?

Not much I like at the moment.  Too early to say.  After a few days in a row of great cards, I think today's is mostly crap.
 
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Posted: #35
is the boston/cleveland under worth a shot tonight? 
 
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by Jmt908:

is the boston/cleveland under worth a shot tonight? 

I looked at it because the numbers seem good on paper.  But I rank Morales #112 and McCallister #98 over the last 30 days.  Also the Red Sox have a lot of lefties that can take advantage of McCallister.  Upon further consideration I think my model underestimated the total here and the true line is closer to what the oddsmakers set at 8.5.  Lean under but probably a pass unless it gets to 9 (which I don't think it will).
 
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Posted: #37
S1lly - keep in mind the weather is very cold and raw in Cleveland today - I am 5 minutes from the stadium!

Question - what is your read of today's Yanks/Jays game?  I am leaning NYY ML, TT O NYY, and O 9.5?  Do you like any of those leans?
 
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Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by swooshman24:

S1lly - keep in mind the weather is very cold and raw in Cleveland today - I am 5 minutes from the stadium!

Question - what is your read of today's Yanks/Jays game?  I am leaning NYY ML, TT O NYY, and O 9.5?  Do you like any of those leans?

I would lean that way on all of those.  I do think the line is pretty accurate and you won't have much room for error.  I also get worried betting against desperate teams at home.  Nova hasn't pitched well enough lately to get me to like the Yankees here (#110 over last 30 days).  Laffey has been worse though coming in at (#135).  This is out of approximately 160 pitchers that went more than 9 innings during this span so these rankings are quite poor.  The over might be the best play on that list.
 
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Posted: #39
It's rare but I'll have to disagree with silly on that over lean.  The Yanks haven't seen Laffey in 4 years so there's an unfamiliarity element in Laffey's favor.  Nova has gotten lit  up his last 2 games but his historical numbers against the Jays are solid and this current Toronto team is worse than most.  Toronto is batting under .200 the last 6 games against righties. 

If that doesn't convince you, 9.5 is begging for over money, vegas is getting tons of over bettors, and the line is sitting solid at 9.5.

I'm not even sure I'd take the Yanks today considering they're on the road and have a pitching disadvantage. 
 
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Posted: #40
afternoon sir  lets cap these game right today, feel a big - profitable weekend ahead of us...was considering an action wager on russia women's basketball to beat austraila at noon to have the final Russia vs USA because we all know USA will beat france lol. not sure yet though.
 
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Posted: #41
Hmm the weather does look cold and windy in Cleveland and Progressive field is already on the pitcher-friendly side.  McCallister already faced the Sox this year and had an impressive 8-0 K/BB but he also gave up the most fly balls of the season as well as 8 hits in 7 innings.  This worries me about McCallister though:

5 times McCallister faced a top 10-ranked offense this year (@BOS, DET, LAA, DET, MIN)

In 27.1 innings, he's given up 39 Hits, 6 HR, 23 Runs, but has an amazing 26-4 K/BB ratio.  I don't think he's figured out how to work through an order yet.  He seems to just try and beat everyone with strikeouts and that's not how to beat good hitting teams.  You want weak contact against a good hitting team, especially when the defense behind you ranks #27 in the league.  Of the 23 runs the Tribe gave up in these starts only 13 were considered earned.
 
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Posted: #42

My fucking Avi

 

Just caught some morning puss though

Hit em hard

 

 

 
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Posted: #43
Quote Originally Posted by Pasteur:

It's rare but I'll have to disagree with silly on that over lean.  The Yanks haven't seen Laffey in 4 years so there's an unfamiliarity element in Laffey's favor.  Nova has gotten lit  up his last 2 games but his historical numbers against the Jays are solid and this current Toronto team is worse than most.  Toronto is batting under .200 the last 6 games against righties. 

If that doesn't convince you, 9.5 is begging for over money, vegas is getting tons of over bettors, and the line is sitting solid at 9.5.

I'm not even sure I'd take the Yanks today considering they're on the road and have a pitching disadvantage. 

Good insight.  I'm not touching the game as I think the total is pretty close to fair value.  My model has it at 9.3 and I think that's about right.
 
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Posted: #44
Quote Originally Posted by LEBRONNN:

afternoon sir  lets cap these game right today, feel a big - profitable weekend ahead of us...was considering an action wager on russia women's basketball to beat austraila at noon to have the final Russia vs USA because we all know USA will beat france lol. not sure yet though.

I haven't placed one bet on the Olympics and I don't plan to.  Good luck though.
 
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Posted: #45
The last time the jays won they had the exact same linup there sporting today gettin 12 hits and a 6-5 win over oakland seems like the jays might be a good dog play, but i lean more on the bluejays team total since the last time nova pitched the yankees gave him a lead and he gave it right back. (+2 i think) on top of that
 
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Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by amd:

My fucking Avi

 

Just caught some morning puss though

Hit em hard

 

 


The "morning puss" emoticon, I always wondered what    was for.
 
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Posted: #47
lmfaooo
 
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Posted: #48
It's only good insight if I'm right lol  Betting an under in a NYY/TOR doesn't exactly make me feel warm n fuzzy inside

Tough card today.  Out of STL or KC, which would you feel more comfortable betting on? 
 
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Posted: #49
Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:


I would lean that way on all of those.  I do think the line is pretty accurate and you won't have much room for error.  I also get worried betting against desperate teams at home.  Nova hasn't pitched well enough lately to get me to like the Yankees here (#110 over last 30 days).  Laffey has been worse though coming in at (#135).  This is out of approximately 160 pitchers that went more than 9 innings during this span so these rankings are quite poor.  The over might be the best play on that list.
Jays couldn't hit me if I was pitching today.    And I only throw around 85 and I'm not a pitcher.  Well.. in college I did anyway.  I'd be lucky to break 80 now 
 
 
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Posted: #50
Quote Originally Posted by Pasteur:

It's only good insight if I'm right lol  Betting an under in a NYY/TOR doesn't exactly make me feel warm n fuzzy inside

Tough card today.  Out of STL or KC, which would you feel more comfortable betting on? 

Tough question.  
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