(23-8) +65.07 units in 5 days

@AdVictoriam

Dude, you’re the man. Just to clarify - you’ve got 10 total units on the Rays? 

u can read, right?

Game 1 Pittsburgh at the NATS.  R. Hill vs P. Corbin.

Patrick Corbin is on the downside of his career.  Almost every metric is worse year over year and as this season wears on he will start to show it more.

Here early in the season, we can still get a nice discounted price with the Pirates at -140.  Later in the year, this game will probably run -160 to -180 in the same spots.

Mr. Hill has been very good with a 2.12 ERA and 1.41 WHIP with 14 strikeouts in 17 innings over his last three outings.

I have a ton of action but I'm still adding this game.

Pittsburgh Pirates ML -140 for 3 units.

Edit:  Line jumped to -145 as I put the wager in so that is the final real wager.

@Mangowoman

 Yes Sir.

Started with 3 on the ML and RL and added 2 more on the ML and RL.

10 total units.

@AdVictoriam

Looks like ATL/Mets game has been canceled

The Pitt/Nats  is spot on,in fact too obvious that I am spooked to take Pittsburgh.lol

As u should be spooked

It's Nats or no play today they will not get swept

@JFelty

 Agreed,I took Nats @+120.

Good luck to everyone

@JFelty

 What is this based on?

The idea that a team "should not get swept"?

I've never understood this thinking.  Is it based on some empirical metric or stat?  Or just a gut thing?

In my warped mind, each game should stand or fall on its own.  The fact a team has lost games before should have no real bearing on the next game outcome.

Help me out here.

Pitching change for the Bjays - its not flexxin anymore, its mcgee

Gamblers still aren’t respecting the Pirates. Until they do the Pirates can continue to cover 

@AdVictoriam

 I like the second game better tbh bro

Do you place an emphasis on trends? Example one team or pitcher seems to own another team or history of teams winning at certain venues etc? 

@Cuno144

 Very good catch there my friend!

This makes a Toronto win almost a sure thing.  Of course, nothing in baseball is an absolute guarantee, but this is a highly probably winner for the Blue Jays.

This pitcher is a decent AAA guy, but should get beat up at the big league level.

@AdVictoriam I do believe the numbers favor not getting swept.But that is not why I took the Nats,just going with my gut.

Great write ups.

Good luck!

@buffer

 Some trends I value much more than others but I do respect most of them as a general rule.

The most valuable trends are the ones that are most recent in a time frame aspect.

For example, I value the last 3 starts for a pitcher more than I value his season numbers.  This becomes more valuable as the season lengthens.

Also, you can't ignore head to head matchup trends in both teams and pitching.  Some teams just dominate another team in any given season.

One of the least watched trends that I watch is home/away team records.  Some teams love home cooking while others love to get out of town.  Vastly underrated.

Looked over the Seattle/Toronto game just to make sure I wasn't missing anything.  I might be but it's too good to pass up.

Toronto Blue Jays RL -1.5 -140  3 units

K.C Royals at the Minnesota Twins.  Keller vs Ober.

Pretty good pitching mismatch here with Ober the superior pitcher in most metrics.  The line reflects this with Twins ML -242.

But this is a game I am going to not play.

I know, that sounds very unusual for today.

It's strictly a gut call on my part.  Well, that and the Royals do play much better on the road than at home going 1-12 at home and 5-9 on the road.

The Royals came back from a huge deficit yesterday and had shots to win that game.

Good to finally find out I DON"T have to play.

@AdVictoriam

Now the million dollar question do you watch the games you bet on?  

@buffer

A million dollar question!  The pressure is huge!

The answer is yes for baseball.  And it's not that way with other sports typically.

Baseball presents opportunities for information if you watch the games.

You don't have to watch every minute but you do need to watch pitchers to see what is going on with them.

They are the single most important determiner of wins/losses in baseball and deserve special attention.

I am selective though.  Not every game needs to be watched.

I am watching Patrick Corbin today as I do need information on him.

Speaking of watching games.

Rich Hill should have been taken out after the 5th inning.

The NATS are starting to hone in on him.

Always wonder why managers can't see what we can see.

agree but we cant be managers and gamblers otherwise we would be known as the pete rose status but with his age and high pitch count he should have not pitched furthermore

I had something happen that I need to warn you all about.

On the Cincy/A's game yesterday where I had the OVER 8.5, I somehow missed there was a pitching change prior to the game starting.

Unlike a straight wager where you can pick listed pitchers and if a pitching change occurs your wager is automatically canceled, a totals wager is always for listed pitchers.

You can't pick the game to be action only.  It defaults to listed pitchers.

So if there is a pitching change prior to the game starting, your wager is voided.  This cost me 5 units yesterday because my wager was voided and I didn't re list it with the new pitcher.

Very key rule to be aware of and I believe most books operate with this rule on totals wagers.

It is totally a sketchy and bad thing by the books to help them and not the gambler.

You can list either action or listed pitchers for a straight bet, but not for a totals bet?  What legitimate reason could there be for that?

The answer is that is helps them and not us.

Never forget, they are in this to take your money any way they can.  Even if they have to bend the rules.