(23-8) +65.07 units in 5 days

DET rl -1.5 +175

@AdVictoriam

 Any thoughts on Orioles/ Tigers Gm 1? 

Looking for an early action

 Thanks I’m advance

GL on your plays today 

Nvm Just as I was posting, I saw your early action play, thanks!

GL @AdVictoriam

 I like the way your thoughts proceeds  

Possibly found another rare OVER play here.

Cubs at Marlins.  C. Killian vs E. Cabrera.

Mr. Killian is a call up from AAA ball due to an injury to Jameson Taillon.  He sports a 7.15 ERA in his AAA season and a 2.03 WHIP.  Not good at all.

Mr. Cabrera has had a rough season to this date. 

The right-hander currently holds a 4.91 ERA and a 1.77 WHIP with a questionable 24:20 K:BB through 22 innings.

The line says the books see this as a close game.  If that is the case, it will be a close game with a lot of runs as both of these guys have holes in their games.

And, the cherry on top.  The books have juiced the OVER heavily.  They expect scoring.  Just a bit sus that the total is only 8.5 but that's ok.

Chicago Cubs/Miami Marlins OVER 8.5 -125 for 3 units.

@KingScorpio

 Actually, I could go for that as well.

Very nice find on your part Sir!

Just posting the line currently at Stations

CHC/MIA total opened at 9 -115 to the under

Have I mentioned that the METS are a bad team?  I'm being facetious, of course.

I've mentioned many time that I have no idea how they are above .500.

And indeed, after a decent start, they have been fading back toward .500 steadily.

Today will be another step on that road downward.

Strider vs McGill today on the pitching matchup.

Mr. Strider has a sparkling 1.42ERA and 0.63 WHIP over his last 3 games while Mr. McGill is 5.79 and 1.71.

Mr. McGill tends to give up home runs with 4 issued in his last 3 games and 5 overall for the year.

Simply put, Strider is elite while McGill is below average so we have a very positive EV in this game.

However, the Braves ML is now -178.  A bit high for my liking but I do like the RL and believe they cover this handily.

Atlanta Braves RL -1.5 -110 for 3 units

As usual, I am liking this card today way too much.  Going to take a break and breathe a bit. Lol.

@KingScorpio

 Hmm.

Pregame has it a bit differently.  They show an open of OVER 8 -120. 

Always wonder how different spots have different opening numbers.  Can be a problem.

I still like the play though.

thanks man

Of course, right when I say I need to tap the brakes, I start looking at Cincy/Oakland.  DOH!

H. Greene vs K. Muller.

Mr. Greene has been pitching VERY well.  In his last outing, he lowered his ERA to 3.52 with a 1.39 WHIP and has an impressive 30:8 K:BB through his first 23 innings this season.

Mr. Muller has not been as good, to be kind.  A 11.08ERA and 2.77 WHIP in his last 3 outings.

I do not see Oakland faring well today.  Hard to his that 100mph+ heater after seeing after an off speed pitch.

Good value here in the RL as well.

Cincinnati Reds ML -155 for 3 units.

Cincinnati Red RL -1.5 +110 for 3 units.

Jeez.  I have got to slow down.

My biggest weakness as a sports gambler is taking too much action.

Especially when I am running good.

At least, I have learned to not jack units up like crazy on these days when I just love the card too much.

Helps control the variance that inevitably will occur.

I preach to you guys to play fewer games and then I do stuff like today.

I really should be ashamed.

It's the old "Do as I say, not as I do."

I hate it when I do that.  But here we are.  And there are likely to be a lot more coming.

@AdVictoriam

 Thanks for your sober, fact based baseball analysis; also, you are to be commended for your stellar BR management counsel. Pleasantries and accolades aside, regarding the Braves game, does the small-sample-size success that many of the Mets hitters have against Strider concern you with the RL play? My analysis of that match is almost identical to yours, but there are a couple Mets hitters that have had success against Strider, again small sample sizes. Thanks again for your input and solid capping.

Another one I might not be able to resist.  Could be because I am still a believer in Zach Plesac.

Cleveland at Boston.  Z. Plesac vs B. Bello.

Could also be because Mr. Bello is just Mr. Bad at pitching.  Last 3 he sports a 9.32ERA with a 2.18 WHIP.  That is bad.

Mr. Plesac in his last 3 has a respectable 3.71ERA and 1.47 WHIP.

So why is the line Boston -136?  This is a very good question that I can't put my finger on.

We have a little time before the game starts so I'm going to dig deeper.  But Boston should not be favored in this game is my strong impression.

Just a lean for now because I have a ton of action out there now.

@b_all_in7

 It does not concern me much, if any.

Strider has dominated in so many ways this season.

If I was to check his splits vs batters with few or no ABs vs him, I would be very surprised to see that category having huge success vs him.

This game, in no small part, is a fade of the METS who somehow continue to be overvalued by both the books and the public in my view.

But Strider is elite.  Have no doubt about that.  And a team heading down has a high probability of failing vs him.

Avid, @m a ole broad having trouble seeing n reading ur plays that I can c r . SF, Cin, Col n Devilrays Thanxs for all the winners $tud.

I want to thank AdVic as I’ve been able to both fade him and take some of his winners with great success. Yesterday I was on Twins RL. As well as Toronto ML. 2 good wins that I decided to fade AdVic. But I was also on his Over on the Reds vs A’s. So it’s all good. Hope to keep fading and riding as I see fit…

@AdVictoriam

 Agreed on all points. I think I will still just lay the chalk on 1st 5 & FG. Thanks again for your grounded baseball insight and disciplined BR management.

@finsterbaby

 Just for you, my dear.  A summary of what I have so far for today.

T.B. Devil Rays ML -143  3 units

T.B. Devil Rays RL -1.5 +115  3 units

Colorado Rockies ML -104  3 units

S.F. Giants ML +152  3 units

T.B. Devil Rays ML -142  2 units

T.B. Devil Rays RL -1.5 +115  2 units

S.F./S.D. UNDER 15 -110  3 units

Detroit Game 1 ML -107  3 units

Cubs/Miami OVER 8.5  -125  3 units

Atlanta Braves RL -1.5  -110  3 units

Cincinnati Reds ML -155  3 units

Cincinnati Reds RL -1.5  +110  3 units

@ElonTrout2

 Well done on those two fades.

However, I will point out that both of those games could have very easily been winners.  Literally one pitch determined the outcome of the cover or not cover in both games.

Please take care in continuing to fade me and be very selective.

It could be a very -EV over the long term.

GL today 

@AdVictoriam

 Good point AdVic. Both were close. But I had a strong feeling I had the narrow advantage. And in fact the Twins were up 8-3 at one point. So it probably shouldn’t have been that close. It was the Royals who were chasing all game.

what a gentleman 

ATL game canceled