(23-8) +65.07 units in 5 days

5 days without a losing day.  I can say this as I don't have a single superstitious bone in my body.

Sports gambling is a pure numbers game.  That is how the books treat it and how you should treat it.

One of the most difficult things we must do is remove emotion, impulsivity and irrational fear from our capping.

The only thing we really have to fear is variance.  No matter how good anyone is or how hot they are, variance can beat you down hard.

We manage variance by spreading out risk, not wagering too much on any one game using our 1%-3% general rule per wager and always looking for ONLY +EV wagers.

EV = Expected Value = Expectation of Winning.

We only want wagers where our EV is HIGHER than the juice or vigorish that the books charge us to make a wager.  For example.

— Bettors taking juice of -105 need to win 51.2% of their bets to profit long term.

— Bettors taking juice of -110 need to win 52.4% of their bets to profit long term.

— Bettors taking juice of -120 need to win 54.6% of their bets to profit long term.

— Bettors taking juice of -130 need to win 56.5% of their bets to profit long term.

In football, where most wagers are set at -110 on the juice, you have to win the wager more than 52.4% of the time to be a winning player.

In baseball, where you can have dogs of over +200 and run lines and alternate lines that pay in the +300 and up ranges, you can have an actual LOSING record on your Wins/Losses and still be a profitable player long term.

This is why when anyone posts a Win/Loss record in baseball without posting their units, it's basically a waste of time for you as an observer. 

You don't get the information you need to evaluate their performance. 

Indeed, gamblers in baseball who only post wins and losses with no units, must be held in more than slight suspicion as they might be wanting to hide losses.

Starting my nightly research into the Saturday card.

There will surely be some we will need to lock in tonight,  my friends.

Thanks for sharing! Keep up the great work 

how about taking a 200pct free play bonus with a 30x rollover? 

@AdVictoriam

 Looking forward to your insight on tomorrow’s board. Keep killing it I’m riding the hot hand my guy I’m with you 

@buffer

 Not exactly sure what your question is.

Are you asking my opinion of an offer that has been made to you?  If so, a 30X rollover is a ridiculously bad offer to you for only a 200% match of your deposit.

The books know that it's almost impossible to make a 30x rollover without losing your deposited balance.  Probably 99% of players fail at that goal.

If I were you, I would take a lower bonus match with a lower rollover.

If you are making an offer to me, I must politely decline.

Don't look now, but this Chicago White Sox team is pretty bad. 9 game losing streak in progress.

Calvin Faucher will be the "starter" tomorrow for the Devil Rays but Yonny Chirinos is scheduled to get the bulk of the innings if all goes according to plan.

Yonny Chirinos had Tommy John surgery a couple of years back and they have slowly brought him along through rehab.

Yonny looked really sharp in his one start this year.  I don't see the White Sox holding up.  The losing streak extends to an even 10 games.

Lance Lynn going for the White Sox.  He is not the same as in previous years.  Bit of a fade of him in all of this too.

Locking this one in tonight as I expect it to move up and not down.  RL as well.

Tampa Bay Devil Rays ML -143  3 units

Tampa Bay Devil Rays RL -1.5 +115 for 3 units

Might have found a real diamond in the rough here.

Arizona at Colorado.  T. Henry vs N. Davis.  A couple of young pitchers.

Madison Bumgarner was released by Arizona which let them bring up T. Henry from AAA.

Mr. Henry doesn't exactly have a great record facing major league hitting.  Mr. Davis, on the other hand, has looked pretty good.

In Colorado's thin air, an OVER is almost always the default, but I am liking the value on the Rockies here at -104.

Definitely worth an overnight play as I think the Rockies will eventually be favored in this game.

Colorado Rockies ML -104 for 3 units.

Always interesting when MLB decides to have a game in Mexico City.

The San Francisco Giants take on the San Diego Padres in the high altitude arena.  Balls fly farther and more homers are hit there.  Similar to the Rockies location.

Manaea vs Musgrove.  2 very similar pitchers as far as metrics are concerned.

But the Padres are dead last in batting average in the league and bottom 7 or worse in a lot of other batting metrics.

The Giants are much better across the board at hitting.

There is a lot of value represented in this line of the Giants at +152 on the ML.  It won't be that good tomorrow.

Locking it in tonight.

San Francisco Giants ML +152 for 3 units.

Looking over team defensive stats this evening.  The worst teams in baseball defensively are the Chicago White Sox and the Oakland A's.

They are on their own island.

Given that I like the Devil Rays on multiple levels, I am going to add on 2 more units to both the ML and RL for the Devil Rays tonight.

Adding.

Tampa Bay Devil Rays ML -143 and RL +115, 2 more units on both of them.

Keep up the good work $tud.

@AdVictoriam

  awesome stuff man 

Great job ! Appreciate your insight 

@AdVictoriam

 Hey Advictoriam! Thanks for all you do to help out the forum! When you bet on a juice line of -140,Do you bet to win or risk? Thx

Hey bud, would appreciate your insight on bluejays -1.5?

@shortdog32

 Not exactly sure I get your question totally, but when I bet on a -140, I have cappped the game to win at least 60% of the time or more.

The risk is worth it only if we can beat the juice.

If the game is a coin flip, its a bad EV to wager on at -140.

Hope this helps!

@Peanutzz

 Flexen vs Gausman.

Mr. Flexen had a couple of nice starts to the year but it appears the league has figured him out over his last 3.  13.14 ERA with a whopping 2.51 WHIP.

Mr. Gausman, on the other hand, has a "decent" 4.58 ERA with a sparkling 0.86 WHIP in his last 3. 

The line on this game opened at -185 and has now run to Toronto -245.  Playing the RL at -130 for -1.5 is a decent option. 

This game is on my lean list.  I may or may not play it depending on other information that I develop this morning.

@AdVictoriam

 Ok..if my unit bet was 100 and the line is -140..That means I bet 140 to win 100 or I would bet 100 flat to win about 60

@shortdog32

 Ah.  Thanks for the clarification.  I get you now.

Still a bit early and I'm waking up. 

The determination about which way to wager on the game you present is pretty much about bankroll management.

If your intent is to risk 1% of your bankroll and that 1% = $140, then you would wager $140 to win $100.

If your intent to risk 1% of your bankroll is a risk of $100, then you would wager the $100 to win around $60 as you say.

Not a rhetorical question here.

How much do you hate losing?  Do you hate it bad enough to put in the time, the work, the effort to stop losing?

Most people don't.

Straight up, most people are lazy in most areas of their lives.

When you watch them, you can easily and quickly determine what really matters to them.

The things that matter to them, they put time, energy and effort into those things because they don't want to lose.

Casual effort.  Lazy effort.  In a hobby like sports gambling can be very expensive.

The books know that most people are lazy, impulsive, reactionary.  Not deliberate, well thought out and non emotional.

They use it to their advantage and make multi billions off of human nature every year.

They can be beat.  But once they find out that YOU are not one of the 95%+ who are lazy losers, they drop you like a hot potato, they limit you or they stiff you.

I have been hit with all of those in my gambling career.  Caribbean books in the 70's, 80's and 90's were infamous for stiffing people, shutting down and just opening up again under a new name like a revolving door.

The big books today usually won't stiff you completely, but they will cut your limits to where you can't hurt them much.

It takes dedication to figure out how to get around their games.  They are watching and analyzing ever wager you make.

But beating them at their own game has a level of satisfaction that keeps me smiling inside all day long.

Take it seriously.  Be one of the 5% who has winner problems.  Not the 95% who has loser problems.

Learn to absolute hate losing.  Even one game.  Find out the "why" behind every loss. 

You will learn more from the losses than the winners.

Vic.

@AdVictoriam

 Rays pitcher change. Any concerns ???

when I bet this morning. Yonny start . Now Faucer start. Thanks in advance 

@PerfectStorm

 Take another look at post #6, my friend.

Nothing has changed.

@AdVictoriam

 I see.  
just my book said pitcher change.  

Looking at the early game today.  Baltimore O's at Detroit Tigers.  D. Kremer vs E. Rodgriguez. 

Kremer has had a lot of ups and downs this year and has given out 7 HRs this year.  A brisk home run clip for sure.

E. Rodgriquez has been very good with a 0.62 ERA and 0.62 WHIP over his last 3 games.  That is elite level pitching.

Seems to be a no brainer here to take the Detroit Tigers.

One other tidbit, the Tigers -1.5 RL is -162.

The books are looking for a one run game it seems to me.  I will take the live dog here.

Detroit Tigers ML -107 for 3 units.