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2 totals we feel the books are gambling on today

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Posted: #26
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

OK - very interesting.

Couple of quesitons...

In a high juice game, sometimes you see a ML of -250, and a RL of -120.  That is a 130 difference.  Now if the total is 10, you would bet the under?  This example is a yankees regular occurance.

What are your thresholds for doing this?

Doesnt a road teams difference betweent he ML and RL factor differently than a home teams?

Thanks in advance.

We look for games around pick  to -50.  Once you get into bigger favorites the results aren't as good.    Obviously when playing Unders we would like the home team to be favored on the RL and when playing overs we would like the road team favored.   
 
Legend
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Posted: #27
Quote Originally Posted by veronica27:

most people that post on here are mods anyway , or people with multiple user names ..
so you cant necessarily believe anything you read anyway ..
 
for you to oppose me would not be a good thing though bro man ..
dont get me started lil one

I have a statement to make:

I officially oppose you.

Now what happens?  Dope.

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
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Posted: #28
Mistakehitter -
 
I have had a few minutes to think about this, and would really like your reaction to my post above about variance.  I really think that is the issue behind the ratio, and not hte "value of a run".
 
Also, any historical stats would definitely help too.
 
I really enjoy learning and having these types of discussions.
 
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
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Posted: #29
Interesting total play...
 
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Posted: #30
Van, question for you RE: variance.

Let's say O/U is set at 9 today. Pitcher for one team stays the same (controlled variable). Other pitcher is in Situation A, the pitcher is Contreraslike. Inconsistent...could give up 0 through 8 or 5 through 3 innings. Situation B has the other pitcher as a consistent fellow who'll throw a QS mostly every time, but has relatively low potential and will always scatter 3-4 runs per outing.

Which over would you rather take? Just trying to put a thought question to your statement of variance not affecting O/U.
Just wondering. I like these discussions, too. I'm usually a terrible O/U bettor, but through these types of talks (MH, your insight this year has helped me a lot, too), i'm getting better.
 
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Posted: #31
Van.. I think we officially have a douchemoron® of the day...

Have you ever thought of having a contest for douchemoron® of the day.. of course, I'd be willing to help judge said contest!
 
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Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by veronica27:

you are a chump dude

 

mistake hiiter and vanzack came on my thread yesterday with bs and disrespect and here you 2 are again on the same thread .. i would give you some prozac no doubt lil one .

i guess it is a coincidence both of you came on my thread and here you are again working em ..  sad

you may be 2 different people .. it doesn't matter to me .. but the way you came on my thread yesterday with disrespect makes you unworthy .. congrats

DONT GET IT TWISTED , ANYONE WITH A BRAIN CAN READ MY THREAD AND THIS ONE AND SEE WHAT TIME IT IS




GET OVER IT LOSER
 
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Posted: #33
Quote Originally Posted by andy88c:

Van, question for you RE: variance.

Let's say O/U is set at 9 today. Pitcher for one team stays the same (controlled variable). Other pitcher is in Situation A, the pitcher is Contreraslike. Inconsistent...could give up 0 through 8 or 5 through 3 innings. Situation B has the other pitcher as a consistent fellow who'll throw a QS mostly every time, but has relatively low potential and will always scatter 3-4 runs per outing.

Which over would you rather take? Just trying to put a thought question to your statement of variance not affecting O/U.
Just wondering. I like these discussions, too. I'm usually a terrible O/U bettor, but through these types of talks (MH, your insight this year has helped me a lot, too), i'm getting better.

Good question.

I think statistically, you would be the same no matter which pitcher you took.

At first glance, I think it is similar to asking someone if they would rather flip a coin, or spin a roullette wheel.  A coin has 2 outcomes, and a roullette wheel has 38, but assuming we set the prices up right your expected value of either bet should be the same.

This is why averages can be so misleading in statistics.

 

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
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Posted: #34
I'm sorry Vanzack I dont think I can answer that or offer historical data. My main job is handicapping starting pitching and moving money. We're just a group of guys that have seen a correlation in cheap RL and Overs and expensive RL and unders with certain totals.  Thresh holds vary. 
 
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Posted: #35
I'm taking the under 4 1/2 at +100 for the first 5 inn  in kc/cws because I live in kc and see almost every royals game and they cant hit worth a shyt and i think Greinke will be up for this game. He has stated his dislike for  chicago, He saw (his friend) Meche battle inconsitency( location) through five innings yesterday and get the team a win. So, that's my two cents. I know I'm going against the movement, but I'm gambling  
 
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by veronica27:

you came on the thread i posted yesterday telling me what and how i should post .. then you never come back .. i offer feedback and try to enlighten people .. no bs . just straight ..
then i see the person (NAME) that started this thread gives me asshole smart alec feeback on the thread of mine you tryed to orchestrate from yesterday ... i dont give a f either way ..
 
but who are you anyway ?
my name is EJ
i am 41 and have been involved in wagering sports since the late 80s ..

Van is a big money maker at capping especially in the stellar game of NFL. So much so that if I recall correctly he has a 50 ft yacht with big boobied hoes all over docked just outside off west central Africa. Van is a true asset to this forum and you should be honored that he took his time to show up in your thread do you have any friggin idea how much it costs using his satellite on the yacht for internet access to Covers? Damnit man relax.....How long have you been around here anyway?

 

 
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Posted: #37
Jeez MH and VanZack, y'all just love having that back and forth conversation with yourself since you're one person, right?
 
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Posted: #38

 

 
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Posted: #39
All over the Wsox Over 8.5  today...let's hope to start off the day right!!
 
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Posted: #40

So based on your analysis you're on KC and the over?  Is that correct?  I cant quite tell from the posts.

 
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Posted: #41
Greinke 4.81 era daytime, 1.90 era at night
 
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Posted: #42
Very interesting stuff, going to watch this I can definitely use improvement on my totals.
 
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Posted: #43
 
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Posted: #44
With your system wouldnt the Nats Rocks over be a play.
 
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Posted: #45
Sorry I abandoned this thread I haven't been busy all day.  I see we lost the KC OVER.  I also see there were 5 Homeruns and all of them were solo shots.
 
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Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by MistakeHitter:

Sorry I abandoned this thread I haven't been busy all day.  I see we lost the KC OVER.  I also see there were 5 Homeruns and all of them were solo shots.
Freudian
 
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Posted: #47
hey MH, any action on the late games?
 
 
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Posted: #48
Quote Originally Posted by NoCashMcgraff:

hey MH, any action on the late games?
No.  I would like to play SD but we had them for alot of money when they blew it in the 9th against st louis and we haven't forgiven them yet.
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