Continuing to work on tomorrow's card. Found a great example of a line that doesn't make sense to me.
Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins. M. Stroman vs J Luzardo.
Stroman got beat up a bit in his last outing but has been pitching very well most of the season. Luzardo is average at best with a 6.14 ERA last 3 outings and 1.77 WHIP.
But the line is only Cubs -124, Marlins +104.
In my mind, Stroman is much better than Luzardo but the line does not reflect that.
The Cubs are a much better hitting team as well. The Cubs are top 5 in a lot of key batting metrics while Miami is below league average in almost every metric.
But the books are saying that Miami is close to a coin flip in this game.
This might be a game that I will play the F5 to help decrease the variance of the end game. Might be the books are figuring in a weak Cubs BP and seeing a tight end game.
For now, just a lean.
"What is grief? If not love perservering?."
1
Continuing to work on tomorrow's card. Found a great example of a line that doesn't make sense to me.
Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins. M. Stroman vs J Luzardo.
Stroman got beat up a bit in his last outing but has been pitching very well most of the season. Luzardo is average at best with a 6.14 ERA last 3 outings and 1.77 WHIP.
But the line is only Cubs -124, Marlins +104.
In my mind, Stroman is much better than Luzardo but the line does not reflect that.
The Cubs are a much better hitting team as well. The Cubs are top 5 in a lot of key batting metrics while Miami is below league average in almost every metric.
But the books are saying that Miami is close to a coin flip in this game.
This might be a game that I will play the F5 to help decrease the variance of the end game. Might be the books are figuring in a weak Cubs BP and seeing a tight end game.
I texted my buddy during the LV game saying to look at Brewers... that one jumped out.. however I luck has had me on the losing side of the brew betting both sides this season...
I haven't gotten cubs TT yet but I'm going to really look into that tomorrow. Small sample size but a few players hit luz... Bollinger can still be out this game though. Will def be back next
BOL
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I texted my buddy during the LV game saying to look at Brewers... that one jumped out.. however I luck has had me on the losing side of the brew betting both sides this season...
I haven't gotten cubs TT yet but I'm going to really look into that tomorrow. Small sample size but a few players hit luz... Bollinger can still be out this game though. Will def be back next
Cincinnati Reds at Oakland A's. Two bad teams with a couple of bad pitchers starting. Although, there seems to be some confusion as to exactly who is starting for the A's.
Luis Cessa is showing for the Reds on every site I look at.
The A's are showing Kyle Muller on ESPN, Drew Rucinski on Rotowire and Covers is not even showing a starter at this point.
It really almost doesn't matter who starts. I almost want to say just take the OVER whatever it is in this game. But I'm not a huge fan of O/Us in general.
Cessa does appear to be the Reds starter though, so lets take a look at him. As hard as it is.
For the season, 10.25 IP, 31H, 20R, 20ER, 3HR, 8BB and 7Ks. Last 3 outings 14.29ERA and a whopping 2.82 WHIP.
That's about as bad as it gets for a starter in MLB these days.
Whoever the A's starter is, he won't be nearly that bad. But he won't be great either.
Strong lean to the over but fading Cessa is almost an auto play until further notice. As a formality, this is not a locked in play until the A's lock in their starter.
"What is grief? If not love perservering?."
1
Another very interesting game.
Cincinnati Reds at Oakland A's. Two bad teams with a couple of bad pitchers starting. Although, there seems to be some confusion as to exactly who is starting for the A's.
Luis Cessa is showing for the Reds on every site I look at.
The A's are showing Kyle Muller on ESPN, Drew Rucinski on Rotowire and Covers is not even showing a starter at this point.
It really almost doesn't matter who starts. I almost want to say just take the OVER whatever it is in this game. But I'm not a huge fan of O/Us in general.
Cessa does appear to be the Reds starter though, so lets take a look at him. As hard as it is.
For the season, 10.25 IP, 31H, 20R, 20ER, 3HR, 8BB and 7Ks. Last 3 outings 14.29ERA and a whopping 2.82 WHIP.
That's about as bad as it gets for a starter in MLB these days.
Whoever the A's starter is, he won't be nearly that bad. But he won't be great either.
Strong lean to the over but fading Cessa is almost an auto play until further notice. As a formality, this is not a locked in play until the A's lock in their starter.
Ok, it appears that Kyle Muller will be the A's starter. His line this year so far 23.2IP, 35H, 19R, 19ER, 3H, 13BB and 17Ks. 7.23 ERA and 2.03 WHIP.
As you can see, he is worse than Cessa in some areas. Those 13 walks are just crazy.
The only reason Cessa doesn't have a walk number like him is that batters get hits before he can walk them.
In Miller's 5 starts, 3 of the 5 went 10 runs or over. In Cessa's 5 starts, 4 of the 5 went over 10 runs and I mean WAY over.
Now, Cessa did have a "decent" outing last time out going 4.2IP and only giving up 2 runs. An aberration in my view.
I just can't see a way to avoid playing the OVER in this game. As I have said before, not a huge fan of the O/U wager. But picking a side here is close to a coin flip.
If I was a POW or POM hype guy, I would be tempted to make this one of those. But I'm not that guy. LOL.
I will, however, make it a 5 unit play.
Line opened at O8 -115. Now 08.5 -115.
Cincinnati Red/Oakland A's OVER 8.5 -115 for 5 glorious units.
"What is grief? If not love perservering?."
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Ok, it appears that Kyle Muller will be the A's starter. His line this year so far 23.2IP, 35H, 19R, 19ER, 3H, 13BB and 17Ks. 7.23 ERA and 2.03 WHIP.
As you can see, he is worse than Cessa in some areas. Those 13 walks are just crazy.
The only reason Cessa doesn't have a walk number like him is that batters get hits before he can walk them.
In Miller's 5 starts, 3 of the 5 went 10 runs or over. In Cessa's 5 starts, 4 of the 5 went over 10 runs and I mean WAY over.
Now, Cessa did have a "decent" outing last time out going 4.2IP and only giving up 2 runs. An aberration in my view.
I just can't see a way to avoid playing the OVER in this game. As I have said before, not a huge fan of the O/U wager. But picking a side here is close to a coin flip.
If I was a POW or POM hype guy, I would be tempted to make this one of those. But I'm not that guy. LOL.
I will, however, make it a 5 unit play.
Line opened at O8 -115. Now 08.5 -115.
Cincinnati Red/Oakland A's OVER 8.5 -115 for 5 glorious units.
It's dropped from the -145 I locked in last night to -138 on my book.
I wouldn't be worried until if/when it gets below the opening line of around -134.
But, even if that happens, I'm not getting off of the play.
I've learned over the years that unless something dramatic happens like a huge pitching change pre game due to injury, its just best to let these things ride.
"What is grief? If not love perservering?."
1
@Cuno144
It's dropped from the -145 I locked in last night to -138 on my book.
I wouldn't be worried until if/when it gets below the opening line of around -134.
But, even if that happens, I'm not getting off of the play.
I've learned over the years that unless something dramatic happens like a huge pitching change pre game due to injury, its just best to let these things ride.
The golden rule in bankroll management is to preserve your bankroll. It's more important to protect bankroll than win games.
What I mean by that is, when you are losing you must DECREASE the size of your wagers and become more selective. Play fewer games.
This runs against the grain of most "gamblers". The fallacy thinking becomes "All I have to do is win one game and I can get it all back.".
The definition of "chasing bad money".
Good runs never end and bad runs are just one win away from turning everything around.
Both are deceptions and can drain your pockets.
If you find you are regularly reloading your accounts, discipline yourself and understand that you have not earned the right to just throw money at something and see what sticks.
1% to 3% of bankroll on any one play should be your range. And yes, even if you are playing with your "life bankroll", you need to set an actual bankroll. Set it at whatever number you want. $100, $1000, $5000, $10,000.
But 1% to 3% should be your range if you have been undisciplined in the past and constantly reloading your account.
Once you build it up, you can move up to 5% and maybe 10% on a play at some point.
But not right now.
Treat this hobby seriously. If you don't, it's a money pit.
"What is grief? If not love perservering?."
0
Bankroll management.
What exactly does that mean to you?
The golden rule in bankroll management is to preserve your bankroll. It's more important to protect bankroll than win games.
What I mean by that is, when you are losing you must DECREASE the size of your wagers and become more selective. Play fewer games.
This runs against the grain of most "gamblers". The fallacy thinking becomes "All I have to do is win one game and I can get it all back.".
The definition of "chasing bad money".
Good runs never end and bad runs are just one win away from turning everything around.
Both are deceptions and can drain your pockets.
If you find you are regularly reloading your accounts, discipline yourself and understand that you have not earned the right to just throw money at something and see what sticks.
1% to 3% of bankroll on any one play should be your range. And yes, even if you are playing with your "life bankroll", you need to set an actual bankroll. Set it at whatever number you want. $100, $1000, $5000, $10,000.
But 1% to 3% should be your range if you have been undisciplined in the past and constantly reloading your account.
Once you build it up, you can move up to 5% and maybe 10% on a play at some point.
But not right now.
Treat this hobby seriously. If you don't, it's a money pit.
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keep crushing it dude! 
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