Ya'll squares gon' keep bettin JDS?

Question

I kid, obviously. But seriously, do you guys still like JDS at -190? Wondering if I should take Cain &#x2B;175 now for a medium play or hope for &#x2B;200.

gsprush · Answer

I kid, obviously. But seriously, do you guys still like JDS at -190? Wondering if I should take Cain &#x2B;175 now for a medium play or hope for &#x2B;200.

jonnyg4508 · Answer

I think it is getting to the point where even if you like JDS a lot, it isn't worth that price. I hate betting on HWs period. These are probably the #1 and #2 in the world. Anything can happen and the first fight wasn't really that telling.

I expect JDS to win. But the value has shifted to Cain.

rzagza · Answer

JDS is just too damn good.  I only see a (roided) Overeem and Jon Jones (when he moves up in 2 yrs) as having a decent chance to beat him.  Cain is very good.  JDS is great.  His striking is just too good and there&#x27;s nothing that tells me Cain is going to be able to take him down as often as he&#x27;ll need to to win.

McDoc · Answer

I agree that the odds shift since this opened has eliminated the value on JDS. I'm glad I got him back at -140. However, I'm not convinced that there is significant value on Cain at this price, either. I agree with johnnyg that heavyweights are generally too unpredictable to provide much value. Now that you've reminded me, I might bet on Cain to close out my position and lock in a small profit.

'

At this point, the only bets on this bout that still look good to me are some of the props. JDS in Round 1 (+260) or Round 2 (+450) might be worth considering, if you really like Junior here. Those aren't sharp bets by any measure, but they might be tolerable if you just have to have something riding on this fight.

I do have a lot of trouble seeing this one go 5 rounds. The juice (-520) is painful, but I actually think this is a rare situation in the UFC where the "inside distance" bet does provide a tiny bit of value.

Ya'll squares gon' keep bettin JDS?

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