UFC Vegas 115

Little to no face value in this card but hopefully we get some violence. BOL this weekend gents

Chris Duncan ML -150 

Duncan inside the distance +115   KO/TKO +175  - first main event for Duncan against his fellow gym member at ATT Moicano. I really like Chris here not only to win but to find a finish, and most likely early on. Moicano's strength is his grappling so lean KO/TKO for the finish

Abdul Rahkman Yahkyaev R1 -225 / U1.5 rounds -450 

Took the R1 at -175 and U1.5 at -325 earlier in the week. This line has gotten steamed hard but this is as close to a given as you can get in MMA. Yahk is one of the better prospects in the sport, I expect a brutal early finish. Got a sub last fight but lean KO/TKO at +100 here

Tommy "Gunz" McMillen ITD / Round 1/2 finish 

Lot of people will hate on Tommy Gunz due to his persona and some of the outlandish stuff he says, but the kid can fight. Have been following him since his amateur days; This is an absolute setup of a fight. Tommy will dominate and get the finish round 1, I actually lean KO/TKO at +300 and have a play on that as well. 

Jose Delano ML - 250 

One of the best prospects off last year's DWCS; Delano should take care of business here. Value on the KO/TKO at +325 but the ML is the better play imo

Guilherme Pat ML +100 / KO/TKO +210

Another DWCS grad here, I really like Pat to outstrike and probably hurt Thomas Peterson pretty bad here. Pat has as astronomical striking advantage and as long as he doesn't get taken down and held repeatedly, I really like his chances to win this fight. In my opinion, pretty linear Pat and under being correlated and Peterson and over correlation IMO. 

Alessando Costa ML -375   Inside distance +100  U2.5 rounds -115

Costa is going to absolutely style on his opponent here. Stewart Nichol is one of the worst guys on the entire roster, only hard part here is narrowing down whether or not Osta is going to take the back and choke him out or get the KO/TKO standing. I lean KO and have played that prop but the U2.5 rounds and ITD for Costa are strong plays

Azamat Bekoev ML - 550  ITD / KO/TKO +135

Azamat is going to abuse Tresean Gore here. Round 1/2 finish and specifically R1 KO/TKO. Value in U1.5 rounds at +165

Tabatha Ricci ML +100

Really good value on Baby Shark Tabatha Ricci here. Nearly 7 years younger than her opponent, i like Ricci to keep it standing and pull ahead against Virna here. Tabatha's past losses have been against girls who outstrike her, which Virna has zero shot of. This fight probably goes over 2.5 as well

Lando Vanatta ML -210 

This is a really bizarre fight and would not go heavy on it by any means. That being said, I will take the vet Lando Vanatta to win here and there's a ton of value on the finish for Lando as well, specifically late. Lando by submission +375 and rounds 2/3 finish are both worth looks and I will have small plays on both. Both guys are coming off extended layoffs so this really is a caution tape fight if I've ever seen one

Kai Kamaka ML -150

IMO a ton of value on the vet Kamaka here. I'm really surprised this line is as tight as it is, Dakota Hope may end up being a pretty good prospect but I'd be really surprised if he were to beat Kamaka here. A short notice 5 day prep for both guys, but with Kamaka living and training in Las Vegas locally, I see that playing into his favor. Especially considering that this is kamaka's 2nd ufc run now whereas it will be Hope'd debut on the big stage. Give me Kamaka all day here to start the card off

Melissa Gatto ML +105

Really like Gatto here. Should be a pretty competitive fight but Melissa possesses almost all of the finishing equity in this fight, I really would not be surprised to see her get a finish here. Small play at best on ITD but I do like the dog in this women's fight to fight for our money

Totals:

Yahkyaev/Ribeiro U1.5 -420

McMillen U1.5 -130

Costa/Nichol U2.5 +100

Looks like Bekoev was on the wrong side of the abuse