This UFC Fight Night doesn't have a lot of name recognition to it ... a bunch of borderline UFC quality fighters trying to break into the organization. As such, I don't much about any of these lower tier fighters and fighters coming out of smaller organizations.
I do know that I won't lay -400 or more odds on any woman not name Valentina and surprisingly there are two woman fights that lopsided on this card. Easy pass for me as I don't know the favorite that well and I for sure don't know anything about the dog, except what their records show.
Ok here are the picks:
3 star max play:
Luque -170: The main event. Luque can win in so many ways KO or Submission. 21 wins and 19 of those are finishes. Contrast Belal's got 20 wins and 15 of them are decisions. Belal doesn't have enough power in his striking to KO Luque and he doesn't have a Submission game. Belal just likes to wrestle and maintain top control. His wrestling quality isn't strong enough to hold Luque down.
2 star play:
Andre Fialho +135 over Baeza. I like taking plus money dogs when fights are a close pickem type. Fialho can bang and has a chin. This should be a firefight.
Jordan Leavitt +120 over Ogden: The Monkey King has a goofy nickname, so that is a check in his box. But also he has more UFC fight experience. He is a dog, which I think is great value. He is very un-assuming nice guy persona, which like a Ryan Hall, means deep down they are skilled fighters and very dangerous on the ground grappling. Give me this plus money shot all day.
1 star play:
Istela Nunes -220 over Sam Hughes: Eh ... I can't say I have a lot of reasons for this pick. I just needed to find another fight to sweat for a 1 star play. So I'm going with the best looking lady in this match and for my eye, that is Nunes.
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
This UFC Fight Night doesn't have a lot of name recognition to it ... a bunch of borderline UFC quality fighters trying to break into the organization. As such, I don't much about any of these lower tier fighters and fighters coming out of smaller organizations.
I do know that I won't lay -400 or more odds on any woman not name Valentina and surprisingly there are two woman fights that lopsided on this card. Easy pass for me as I don't know the favorite that well and I for sure don't know anything about the dog, except what their records show.
Ok here are the picks:
3 star max play:
Luque -170: The main event. Luque can win in so many ways KO or Submission. 21 wins and 19 of those are finishes. Contrast Belal's got 20 wins and 15 of them are decisions. Belal doesn't have enough power in his striking to KO Luque and he doesn't have a Submission game. Belal just likes to wrestle and maintain top control. His wrestling quality isn't strong enough to hold Luque down.
2 star play:
Andre Fialho +135 over Baeza. I like taking plus money dogs when fights are a close pickem type. Fialho can bang and has a chin. This should be a firefight.
Jordan Leavitt +120 over Ogden: The Monkey King has a goofy nickname, so that is a check in his box. But also he has more UFC fight experience. He is a dog, which I think is great value. He is very un-assuming nice guy persona, which like a Ryan Hall, means deep down they are skilled fighters and very dangerous on the ground grappling. Give me this plus money shot all day.
1 star play:
Istela Nunes -220 over Sam Hughes: Eh ... I can't say I have a lot of reasons for this pick. I just needed to find another fight to sweat for a 1 star play. So I'm going with the best looking lady in this match and for my eye, that is Nunes.
Well I was dead wrong on my 3 star play. Belal had a gameplan and he executed it well. Super boring fighting style on his side, but it is still a W. I can't see that dancing nonsense work against a Colby, Khamzat, Usman. But then again, surely he'll come up with a different strategy for those guys.
So 2 wins and 2 losses. 3 star and 1 star plays lost, but my two 2 star plays won. It helps that the two 2 stars were underdog plays.
This card was a tough card for me to cap. On to next week.
Well I was dead wrong on my 3 star play. Belal had a gameplan and he executed it well. Super boring fighting style on his side, but it is still a W. I can't see that dancing nonsense work against a Colby, Khamzat, Usman. But then again, surely he'll come up with a different strategy for those guys.
So 2 wins and 2 losses. 3 star and 1 star plays lost, but my two 2 star plays won. It helps that the two 2 stars were underdog plays.
This card was a tough card for me to cap. On to next week.
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