UFC Sat 5-8-21 Plays

I projected Marina Rodriguez as a 69% favorite in this fight, and I  cannot recommend a moneyline play on either side.

Furthermore, I projected this fight to go the distance 66% of the time (implied odds of -196), so I cannot recommend a bet on the total, although the

I don’t see value in the winning method market, either. The two most likely outcomes are Rodriguez by decision (listed +120, projected +142) and Waterson by decision (listed +275, projected +302). Still, I think Rodriguez is very live to win inside the distance (listed +240, projected +262), and that’s where I would put my money.

I have Rodriguez winning the fight 69% of the time and winning inside the distance 40% of the time, which is how I get to that projected number of +262 (or 27.6%). But if you bump her ITD chances by 5% to 45%, the projection adjusts to +223, and if you make those chances 50%, you’re looking at odds closer to +189.

That’s what’s so difficult about betting any sport: small percentages make all the difference and turn a value bet into a -EV play based on subtle changes.

Typically, I only bet my projected edges. Still, fights are far more difficult to project than a sport like baseball, for instance, and if I feel like I have a strong read on a fight outcome (and if the projection is within a reasonable range), I’m always willing to take a shot.

I would place a . The power discrepancy in this matchup at 125 and this stylistic clash in a small cage is likely undervalued.

The Pick: Marina Rodriguez wins Inside the Distance (+240, 0.25 units)By Zerillo

Adding / Gillespie -157

N.Magny ML +

Adding  Morono +150

@RLeith35

 BOL . Like the breakdown

Seems like a dog day today. 

GL tonight RLeith35! 

@WuKongKing

Bro, he lifted it verbatim off Action Network, then just copied their 'staff' plays

He also gave credit to sean zerillo for it at the end

Lol oh thanks. It was an interesting read nonetheless 

Clown. Clearly gives credit to his source. 

Thanks for sharing Rleith

@jaybucko

If it was clear then why did someone think it was his analysis. look in the mirror bozo

If someone didn't know of AN / Zerillo, the reference makes little sense, it's hardly "Copied from Action Network". Then just copies their plays as his own.