Vannata has not won a fight in the octagon when his opponent has scored a takedown. He will almost certainly be taken down on Saturday, the only question is how many times.
I am not confident in Lando’s ability to get a finish either considering he hasn’t knocked out an opponent since 2016. I would project Grundy to have a significant advantage on the ground as well. Typically, Lando prioritizes striking from the ground — which judges rarely give credit for — rather than using technique to get up using the fence.
Oddsmakers are expecting this fight to go to a decision at -167 (62.55% implied). I think that’s too high when you take into account Grundy has only gone the distance four times in his fourteen career fights.
I think submission is on the table here and sportsbooks are not giving Grundy much credit for his submission skills on the ground. PointsBet has Grundy via submission at +750 (11.76% implied), which is very tasty when you compare it to the rest of the market.
I think Grundy will land multiple takedowns on Lando and could finish him with a head and arm choke. Admittedly this is not the most likely outcome, so I will only be wagering a half unit on this spot.
Lando is as tough as they come so the most likely outcome is still a decision, but not where the odds are currently. I would play the value of submission down to +625 on Saturday.
The Pick: Mike Grundy ML -130 (1u) | Grundy via submission +750 (.5u) By E.Richter
What’s most interesting about this fight is that it is the third ranked Oliveira facing fourth ranked Chandler as opposed to number one ranked Dustin Poirier facing second ranked Justin Gaethje.
Poirier chose to overlook a title bout with Gaethje in order to make the Conor McGregor trilogy payday which helps clarify why Oliveira is in the fight but how Chandler got in ahead of Justin Gaethje seems unjust.
Chandler arrives fresh off the drubbing of Dan Hooker in his UFC debut. What has not been publicized much is the extreme amount of quarantine etc. Hooker had to perform in order to make that bout. Further, his decision not to pressure Chandler and in fact retreat insured his doom for Chandler, if allowed to pressure and back opponents up is one tough fighter to beat.
Chandler’s basis is world class D1 college wrestling so he’s an unrelenting forward pressure fighter who over the course of his twenty-seven professional fights has learned how to compliment his wrestling with power striking as we witnessed against Hooker.
Chandler’s only UFC bout was Hooker as he was in the Bellator organization prior. As magnificent as Chandler looked in that bout, I believe there’s a healthy dose of recency flavoring this betting line based on that Hooker result. That said, Chandler’s pressure wrestling, his explosive athleticism and his natural striking power make him a serious threat especially early in this bout.
Oliveira enters the octagon Saturday the younger man by four years. He’s two inches taller than Chandler and will sport arm/leg reach advantages of three inches each. Oliveira’s fight foundation is his third-degree black belt in BJJ. Oliveira himself is most dangerous when pressing opponents backward and inflicting damage upon them.
Oliveira not only can compete with Chandler on the mat he can compete with anyone at 155lbs. there. Oliveira’s striking has improved drastically over the course of his career as well his ability to slip strikes and defend. The high level of world class opponents he’s faced force me to believe this fight will be one of the top competitions this year in the UFC.
Oliveira opened -150 and Chandler action has dropped the price to Oliveira -125 which in my view offers opportunity as I regard him more a favorite over Chandler than the opening line did.
In this championship fight Oliveira MUST navigate the first five minutes of the Chandler firestorm as Chandler’s finished opponents seventeen times in his career and of those thirteen were in the first round.
Provided Oliveira can compete into the second round and beyond I believe his confidence will grow as will his ability to walk Chandler backwards. In the later rounds Chandler’s effectiveness explosion and effectiveness wane and it’s late in the fight where Oliveira’s offensive diversity coupled with his physical size/length will begin to take over this bout.
By Gamblou
Brazilian Jacare’ Souza was one of the most efficient submission specialists of his era but he’s now forty-one years old and a shell of his former fighting self.
Whether it be Cowboy Cerrone, Daniel Cormier, Stipe Miocic, Tyron Woodley or in this case Souza, examples in the fight game of fighters unable to understand when their game is gone riddles the landscape and has since hand-to-hand competition began.
There are very few Rocky Marciano’s or Khabib Nurmagomedov’s out there which is a crying shame for it is my judgement that Souza is going to get waxed in this match-up.
Jacare’s still capable on the mat but standing he is a plodding, deliberate, telegraphing striker who is unable to evade strike nor throw with any quickness, velocity or pop.
In this fight Jacare’ must sell out to engage his countryman Muniz inside the pocket and in close quarters to clasp, clinch and drag him to the floor if he is to have any chance at competing in this bout. From the floor it’s possible Jacare’ can use intelligence and guile to even the playing field with his opponent.
Muniz is ten years the younger combatant, he’s a southpaw who’s an inch taller than Jacare’. He’ll own a 6” reach advantage with arms, 2” advantage with his legs and he's 2-0 in the UFC and 6-0 in his last six fights.
Muniz will want to manage distance and keep the singular dimensioned Souza on the outside where kicks, strikes and elbows are most effective. Should Jacare’ manage to get this fight to the floor the larger, younger, BJJ black belt Muniz should be able to compete with the wily grizzled veteran long enough to get the fight back standing where Muniz’s physicality will be on display.
Needless to say, a Jacare’ pelt on his mantle would be a dynamic accomplishment for Muniz and he’s motivated to advance his career with a win of any form over a legend in Jacare’ Souza Saturday night. Muniz +100 / By Gamblou
Just a year ago Ferguson, now thirty-seven years old was number one ranked, undefeated in his last twelve bouts and awaiting a showdown with Champion Khabib Nurmagomedov. However, his drubbing at the hands of Justin Gaethje changed the course of his career dynamically.
As I’d predicted then Gaethje laid the hammer on Ferguson and beat him in comprehensive fashion until the referee stopped the fight in the fifth round but not before Gaethje had beaten the breaks and the last remaining fertile years of his career out of Ferguson.
Ferguson then took a fight against Charles Oliveira last December and was beaten soundly in a five-round decision. We’ve witnessed older athlete’s (Welterweight Tyron Woodley for one) fall off the cliff when it comes to the end of a fight career and with a loss Saturday, we may regard Ferguson in similar light.
Ferguson will show up to this bout desperate to regain his lost momentum. Factors in his favor include a slight height advantage with a four-inch reach advantage so it’s logical that Tony works to keep this fight standing for he was exposed on the ground in his last fight and in this one faces a fighter of similar ground capability in Dariush.
Ferguson lands a whopping 5.5 significant strikes per minute but he often chooses to exchange too willingly as evidenced by the fact that he receives four significant strikes per minute in return. Ferguson’s fate will lie in his ability to keep this fight a striking battle.
Beniel Dariush has won four of his last six bouts via finish and he’s done that against top competition in the division. Dariush owns a black belt in Muay Thai and BJJ so he is dangerous anywhere a fight goes and can finish opponents via submission or strikes. Of his twenty wins thirteen have been via finish.
This fight may come down to Dariush’s ability to execute the Oliveira plan and drag Ferguson to the floor for a flogging so a key factor will be Dariush’s pedestrian take down effectiveness (32%) against Ferguson’s take down defense (70%).
In the end I believe the Dariush youth and momentum work in his favor yet I have a difficult time believing that he’ll be able to manage Ferguson to the floor and for that reason I’ll choose to pass on this co main event for now.
Total in this fight: 2.5Rds. Over -170 / By Gamblou
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