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UFC on FX 8

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Posted: #1
Date: May 18, 2013
Location: Jaragua do Sul, Santa Catarina, Brazil
Venue: Arena Jaragua
Broadcast: FX, FUEL TV, Facebook

MAIN CARD (FX, 9 p.m. ET)
**************************************************
Vitor Belfort vs. Luke Rockhold
Chris Camozzi vs. Ronaldo Souza
Rafael dos Anjos vs. Evan Dunham
Rafael Natal vs. Joao Zeferino

PRELIMINARY CARD (FUEL TV, 6 p.m. ET)
***********************************************************
Hacran Dias vs. Nik Lentz
Mike Rio vs. Francisco Trinaldo
John Cholish vs. Gleison Tibau
Michel Prazeres vs. Paulo Thiago
Yuri Alcantara vs. Iliarde Santos
Roger Hollett vs. Fabio Maldonado

PRELIMINARY CARD (Facebook, 4:30 p.m. ET)
******************************************************************
Azamat Gashimov vs. John Lineker
Chris Cariaso vs. Jussier Formiga
Jeremy Larsen vs. Lucas Martins


@whipthecapper

 
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Posted: #2
Jussier Formiga
================
Grappler/striker 
counter striker 
avg striker 
contact striker 
strikes to close the distance to att. clinch td
avg punching tech. 
throws various punching combos 
avg kicker 
> avg leg kicks 
throws kicks to the legs/body 
does't really check kicks
weak clinch striker/ mainly looks for td  
< avg head movement 
ok  footwork 
ok clinch td/trip 
ok shoot td 
prefers to shoot for DL td 
clinch tdd ???
shoot sl or dl tdd ???
decent top control 
decent jits 
ok guard passing ability 
> avg gnp 
> avg active guard 
< avg chin 
ok cardio 


Chris Cariaso
==============
southpaw
Striker/grappler 
aggressive
ok striker 
contact striker 
> avg punching tech. 
throws various punch/kick combos
ok kicker 
ok leg kicks 
throws kicks to the legs/body/head 
> avg active clinch striker/good elbows & knees
avg head movement 
avg footwork 
ok clinch td/trip 
rarely shoots for td 
prefers clinch td/trip against the cage 
< avg clinch tdd 
< avg shoot sl or dl tdd 
avg top control 
> avg jits 
< avg guard passing ability 
> avg gnp 
> avg active guard 
decent chin 
decent cardio


for formiga to win he's going to want to take cariaso down and sub him out or grind out a dec.

for cariaso to win he has to keep it standing and out point or KO formiga.

formiga via sub/dec

Confidence Meter:6/10

What the odds Should be:
=========================
Jussier Formiga: -170
Chris Cariaso: +145

 
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Posted: #3
Jussier Formiga
================
Grappler/striker 
counter striker 
avg striker 
contact striker 
strikes to close the distance to att. clinch td
avg punching tech. 
throws various punching combos 
avg kicker 
> avg leg kicks 
throws kicks to the legs/body 
does't really check kicks
weak clinch striker/ mainly looks for td  
< avg head movement 
ok  footwork 
ok clinch td/trip 
ok shoot td 
prefers to shoot for DL td 
clinch tdd ???
shoot sl or dl tdd ???
decent top control 
decent jits 
ok guard passing ability 
> avg gnp 
> avg active guard 
< avg chin 
ok cardio 


Chris Cariaso
==============
southpaw
Striker/grappler 
aggressive
ok striker 
contact striker 
> avg punching tech. 
throws various punch/kick combos
ok kicker 
ok leg kicks 
throws kicks to the legs/body/head 
> avg active clinch striker/good elbows & knees
avg head movement 
avg footwork 
ok clinch td/trip 
rarely shoots for td 
prefers clinch td/trip against the cage 
< avg clinch tdd 
< avg shoot sl or dl tdd 
avg top control 
> avg jits 
< avg guard passing ability 
> avg gnp 
> avg active guard 
decent chin 
decent cardio


for formiga to win he's going to want to take cariaso down and sub him out or grind out a dec.

for cariaso to win he has to keep it standing and out point or KO formiga.

formiga via sub/dec

Confidence Meter:6/10

What the odds Should be:
=========================
Jussier Formiga: -170
Chris Cariaso: +145

 
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Posted: #4
John Lineker
=============
Striker/grappler 
aggressive 
ok striker 
heavy handed 
avg punching tech. 
throws various punching combos
good body puncher
good left hook
avg kicker 
> avg leg kicks 
throws kicks to the legs/body 
> avg striker in the clinch
weak head movement 
< avg footwork
> avg clinch td 
< avg shoot td 
prefers DUH trips in clinch 
< avg clinch tdd 
< avg shoot sl or dl tdd 
> avg top control 
> avg jits 
> avg guard passing ability 
ok gnp 
> avg active guard 
good chin 
avg cardio 


Azamat Gashimov (lacked footy)
==============================
Striker/grappler 
aggressive
> avg striker 
contact striker 
> avg punching tech.
throws various punch/kick combos 
ok kicker 
ok leg kicks 
throws kicks to the legs/body/head 
clinch activity  ???
ok head movement 
ok footwork 
ok clinch td/trip 
ok shoot td 
prefers to shoot for td ???
< avg clinch tdd ???
shoot sl or dl tdd ???
> avg top control 
ok jits 
> avg guard passing ability 
ok gnp 
ok active guard 
suspect chin 
> avg cardio ???


with the lack of footy on aza its difficult to access his current skill level, but from what i seen he's definitley the more well rounded fighter out of the 2. 

i see aza taking down lineker off a Double and making him tap early. 

confidence meter:6/10

What the odds Should be:
=========================

azamat gashimov: -150
john lineker: +125
 
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Posted: #5
Fabio Maldonado
=================
Striker/grappler 
aggressive
decent striker 
contact striker 
good jab & body shots
decent punching tech. 
throws various punching combos 
weak kicker 
< avg leg kicks 
rarely throws kicks 
good active striker in the clinch  
weak head movement 
< avg footwork 
ok clinch td/trip 
rarely shoots for td 
prefers DUH trips in the clinch  
< avg clinch tdd 
< avg shoot sl or dl tdd 
avg top control 
avg jits 
< avg guard passing ability 
> avg gnp 
avg active guard 
good chin 
ok cardio 


Roger Hollett
=============
Striker/grappler 
counter striker 
> avg striker 
power > contact 
ok punching tech. 
heavy handed 
throws a 1-2 at most/mostly single strikes
< avg kicker 
avg leg kicks 
throws kicks to the legs or body
rarely throws kicks
< avg striker in the clinch 
weak head movement 
weak footwork 
< avg clinch td 
weak shoot td 
rarely goes for td 
weak clinch tdd 
weak shoot sl or dl tdd 
avg top control 
< avg jits 
< avg guard passing ability 
avg gnp 
weak guard 
> avg chin 
< avg cardio 


boxer vs boxer. hollett needs to ko fabio. fabio need to out point or ko roger.

fabio via ko 3rd round or decision

confidence meter: 7/10

what the odds should be
=========================
fabio -300 
roger +250

 
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Posted: #6
Hacran Dias
==============
Grappler/striker 
tentative counter striker 
avg striker 
contact striker 
avg punching tech. 
throws a 1-2 at most 
< avg kicker 
avg leg kicks 
throws kicks to the legs/body
rarely kicks 
avg striker in the clinch/mainly looks for td  
> avg head movement 
avg footwork 
decent clinch td/trip 
ok shoot td 
prefers clinch trips 
> avg clinch tdd 
avg shoot sl or dl tdd 
ok top control 
ok jits 
ok guard passing ability 
ok gnp 
guard ???
> avg chin/untested  ???
ok cardio 


Nick Lentz
===========
Striker/grappler 
aggressive 
ok striker 
contact striker 
ok punching tech. 
throws various punch/kick combos 
> avg kicker 
> avg leg kicks 
throws kicks to the legs/body/head 
> avg active striker in the clinch   
< avg head movement 
> avg footwork 
decent clinch td/trip
ok shoot td 
prefers tds from the clinch 
< avg clinch tdd 
avg shoot sl or dl tdd 
decent top control 
> avg jits 
> avg guard passing ability 
decent  gnp 
> avg active guard/ active striker 
avg chin 
> avg cardio 


tough fight to call.

dias has no striking and wants to take this fight to the ground where he's he can use his jits to grind out a decision most likely.
lentz will i presume want to keep this fight standing since he is the better striker. lentz is a good wrestler and can also take dias down and work his GnP.

though lentz is the more well-rounded fighter i'll take my chance with dias finding a way to get lents to the mat and grinding out a "w".

Dias via Decision
i like the > 2.5 rds
confidence meter: 5/10


what the odds should be
========================

dias -130
lents -110
 
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Mike Rio
=========
Grappler/striker  
tentative counter striker
avg striker 
contact striker 
ok punching tech. 
throws a 1-2 or 1-2-1 at most 
weak kicker 
< avg leg kicks 
throws kicks to the legs/body/head 
rarely kicks 
< avg striker in the clinch   
< avg head movement 
< avg footwork 
decent clinch td 
good shoot td 
prefers to shoot for a DL td 
avg clinch tdd 
avg shoot sl or dl tdd 
ok top control 
ok jits 
avg guard passing ability 
ok gnp 
> avg active guard 
< avg chin 
> avg cardio 


Francisco Trinaldo
===================
southpaw
Striker/grappler 
aggressive 
> avg striker 
power > contact strikes
heavy handed 
weak punching tech. 
throws various punching combos  
avg kicker 
< avg leg kicks 
throws kicks to the legs/body/head 
rarely kicks
< avg striker in the clinch 
> avg head movement 
ok footwork 
ok clinch td 
< avg shoot td 
prefers clinch tds against the cage 
< avg clinch tdd 
weak shoot sl or dl tdd 
> avg top control 
ok jits 
ok guard passing ability 
decent gnp 
avg active  guard 
avg chin 
< avg cardio 


rio via dec
confidence meter: 4/10 

what the odds should be
=======================
rio +145
trinaldo -180
 
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Posted: #9
Yuri Alcantara
===============
southpaw
Striker/grappler 
aggressive
ok striker 
contact striker 
< avg punching tech. 
throws throws a 1-2 or a 1-2 kick
ok kicker 
ok leg kicks 
throws kicks to the legs/body/head 
avg striker in the clinch 
< avg head movement 
avg footwork 
ok clinch td 
avg shoot td/rarely shoots 
prefers clinch td/trips  
weak clinch tdd 
avg shoot sl or dl tdd 
ok top control 
decent jits 
decent guard passing ability 
good gnp 
> avg active guard 
good chin 
avg cardio 


Iliarde Santos
===============
Grappler/striker 
counter striker 
avg striker 
power > contact strikes 
< avg punching tech. 
throws a 1-2 at most 
< avg kicker 
avg leg kicks 
throws kicks to the legs/body 
weak striker in the clinch   
avg head movement 
< avg footwork 
avg clinch td 
decent shoot td 
pulls guard
prefers to shoot for a SL td 
< avg clinch tdd 
weak shoot sl or dl tdd 
ok top control 
ok jits 
avg guard passing ability 
> avg gnp 
avg active guard 
< avg chin 
avg cardio 


yuri will be the superior fighter in this fight. the only way i see santos coming out on top is if he  manages to get yuri to the mat via his decent single leg.
i expect to see yuri keep it standing though and most likely via KO/tko of santos. i wouldn't be surprised seeing yuri win via decision.

confidence meter: 7.5/10

what the odds should be
=======================
yuri alcantara -275
iliarde santos +225
 
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Evan Dunham
============
southpaw
Striker/grappler 
aggressive 
decent striker 
contact striker 
decent punching tech. 
throws various punch combos/good 1-2 mainly 
> avg kicker 
ok leg kicks 
throws kicks to the legs/body/head 
avg striker in the clinch   
> avg head movement 
ok footwork 
ok clinch td 
decent shoot td 
prefers to shoot for a DL td  
> avg clinch tdd 
avg shoot sl or dl tdd 
ok top control 
ok jits 
> avg guard passing ability 
decent gnp 
ok active guard 
ok chin 
decent cardio 

Rafael Dos Anjos
================
southpaw
Striker/grappler
aggressive
decent striker 
contact striker
avg punching tech.
throws punch/kick combos
decent kicker 
good leg kicks
throws kicks to the legs/body/head
avg clinch strikes/ good knees 
decent head movement 
good footwork 
good clinch td 
decent shoot td
prefers to shoot for a DL td against the cage 
> avg clinch tdd 
ok shoot sl or dl tdd
ok top control
good jits
good guard passing ability
decent gnp
ok active guard
> avg chin
good cardio 


dunham win by popping that 1-2, avoiding td's, and maybe even landing a surprise takedown of his own for the decision.

Rafael is going to need to mix it up, but most importantly get dunham to the mat and keep him there.

Rafael Dos Anjos via Decision

confidence meter: 6.5/10

what the odds should be
========================
RDA -220
Dunham +165
 
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Posted: #11
Luke Rockhold
=============
southpaw
Striker/grappler 
aggressive 
good striker 
contact striker 
heavy handed 
good punching tech. 
throws various punch/kick combos 
good kicker 
ok leg kicks 
throws kicks to the legs/body/head 
ok striker in the clinch/ good knees   
ok head movement 
avg footwork 
> avg clinch td 
shoot td 
rarely goes for any tds 
ok clinch tdd 
decent shoot sl or dl tdd 
> avg top control 
> avg jits 
avg guard passing ability 
decent gnp 
> avg guard 
ok chin 
good cardio 


Vitor Beltfort
==============
southpaw
Striker/grappler 
counter striker 
decent striker 
contact striker 
good punching tech. 
heavy handed 
throws various punching combos
ok kicker 
ok leg kicks 
throws kicks to the legs/body/head 
< avg striker in the clinch   
> avg head movement 
avg footwork 
> avg clinch td 
avg shoot td 
pulls guard 
prefers to pull guard 
weak clinch tdd 
< avg shoot sl or dl tdd 
> avg top control 
ok jits 
< avg guard passing ability
> avg gnp 
> avg active guard/ good sweeps 
< avg chin 
avg cardio 


this will be a stand up fight that will not make through 5 rounds.

the only way i see vitor winning is via ko/tko. vitor has poor td ability and loves to pull guard, for what reason i don't know because his guard is s***. vitor definitley has the power and quick hands to stop luke but will have to be less tentative with his strikes.

luke is on another level striking wise and i think he'll knock vitor out early in this fight.


Luke Rockhold via KO/TKO 

Confidence Meter: 7/10

What the Odds should be
========================
Luke Rockhold -230
Vitor Belfort +190

 
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Posted: #12
Luke Rockhold -115 ( 5 units for 4.4 units )

Luke Rockhold via TKO +530 ( 0.5 units for 2.6 units )

Parlay ( 2.5 units for 2 units)
======================
Ronald De Souza -525
Rafael Dos Anjos -190



 
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Posted: #13
Luke Rockhold. 
 
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Posted: #14
Luke Rockhold -115 (5 units for 4.4 units)

Luke Rockhold via TKO +530 (0.5 units for 2.6 units)

Mike Rio +250 (0.5 units for 1.2 units)

Hacran Dias +145 (0.5 units for 0.7 units)

Azamat Gashimov +105 (0.5 units 0.5 units)


Parlay ( 2.5 units for 2 units)
================================
Ronaldo Souza -525
Rafael Dos Anjos -190


Parlay (2 units for 1.5 units)
==============================
Yuri Alcantara -385
Fabio Maldonado -260


Parlay (1 unit for 1.7 units)
=============================
Rafael Natal -350
Gleison Tibau -285
Paulo Thiago -180


Parlay (1 unit for 0.9 units)
==============================
Ronaldo Souza -525
Jussier Formiga -160


Hail Mary (0.1 unit for 12.2 units)
===================================
Luke Rockhold -125
Ronaldo Souza -525
Rafael Dos Anjos -190
Mike Rio +250
Hacran Dias +115
Yuri Alcantara -530
Rafael Natal -350
Gleison Tibau -190
Paulo Thiago -180
Fabio Maldonado -260
Azamat Gashimov +110
Jussier Formiga -150

 
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Posted: #15
disregard Rio in the Hail Mary. He's not in involved in that play.
 
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Posted: #16
That is some great work. Thx. Love readin yr breakdowns.
 
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Posted: #17
Never sure what "contact striker" means. Pls advise buddy
 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by sawman:

Never sure what "contact striker" means. Pls advise buddy

its kind of dumb and should actually be revised but the majority of fighter i cap are "contact striker" meaning they're looking to just "make contact" on their strikes and gain "points" not exactly trying to KO their opponent with any of their strikes. 

Some fighters i cap i mark as "power > contact striker" these guys usually have poor technique and throws punches looking to change the fight with one swinging haymaker.

on this card i believe hollette is the only "power > contact striker" and linker maybe.
 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by sawman:

That is some great work. Thx. Love readin yr breakdowns.

thanks bro. probably starting a website/blog soon.
 
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Posted: #20
Luke money flowing: KO prop down to +280 & SU @ -135 

:) 
 
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Posted: #21
Luke money flowing: KO prop down to +280 & SU @ -135 

:) 
 
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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by whipton:


What the Odds should be
========================
Luke Rockhold -230
Vitor Belfort +190


 
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Posted: #23
Parlay (1 unit for 12.1 units)
=====================
RDA
Yuri
Tibau 
Fabio
Souza ITD
Luke ITD

 
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Posted: #24

I have to say, I'm not sharing your same confidence with Rockhold. If it makes it to late in the 2nd, I think he wins for sure, but Vitor has this "magic" about him still that I can't ignore. One thing I've been impressed with is his hand speed that is still REAL fast.

No play yet for me - I think I'd play Vitor already if not for your 5U play

 
 
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Posted: #25
Quote Originally Posted by sawman:

I have to say, I'm not sharing your same confidence with Rockhold. If it makes it to late in the 2nd, I think he wins for sure, but Vitor has this "magic" about him still that I can't ignore. One thing I've been impressed with is his hand speed that is still REAL fast.

No play yet for me - I think I'd play Vitor already if not for your 5U play


lol don't let my play dictate where your money goes, though i do appreciate the love and respect. i haven't been the hottest capper even though i've been nailing > 75 % per event lately. 

i do feel confident about luke. if your not into the play just skip it. easier said then done though.
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