UFC on Fox 18 Money Makers

UFC on Fox 18

It's an early afternoon start time for the UFC on Fox event, with a couple of decent fights mixed in there. While looking thru the entire card, there are a LOT of fights between guys that I either simply don't trust or the circumstances surrounding their match-up make it a toss-up. I try to steer clear completely of betting on those types of fights these days and only look for once where I feel confident or I think there is tremendous value. In this case, I really like Anthony Johnson to KO Ryan Bader. I'm sure a lot of people have taken a strong stance either way on this fight. Either they believe Johnson will knock Bader out within the first 2 rounds, or Bader will weather the early storm and taken Johnson into deep waters, hoping to tire him out and make him quit. Basically, trying to emulate Daniel Cormier's plan that was successful. However, even though Bader and Cormier have similar fighting styles, lets not put Bader's wrestling credentials, clinching, and striking up there with Cormier. One of the things that made Cormier successful in the Rumble fight was his ability to take a HUGE shot early from Johnson and still be able to survive. Bader's chin is suspect in my opinion. Cormier was able to weather the storm, get inside a bit,a and take Rumble down. Bader doesn't have that same type of style. He likes to shoot for double-legs and he leaves his chin up while coming in. I personally think Rumble stuffs any takedown attempts and hits him with something big in the first 2 rounds to knock him out. This will be a large play for me and I will be sprinkling Johnson in a few parlays. However, I think that if for some reason Johnson weren't able to get that killshot early, Bader does have a chance in the later rounds to take out Rumble if Rumble gasses and quits (like he's been known to do). So in that case, I don't see this fight going a full 5 rounds. I will be utilizing that prop in several parlays as well, because I think we get a stoppage regardless of who wins.

Some quick points on the other fights I'm playing: Yes, Northcutt is still extremely green and I wouldn't be surprised if he somehow lost this fight, but with the odds all the way down to -260, I have to take a stab. The UFC wouldn't have brought in Barbarena as a late notice replacement if they were terribly concerned he would take out their golden boy. Barbarena is a tough, gritty type of fighter, but Northcutt will have obvious advantages in speed and athleticism, especially as the fight goes on and Barabarena tires. That said, I'm still looking for the best opportunity to fade Northcutt in a future bought. I did the same thing with Paige VanZant. Sooner or later, he's going to get matched up with someone who will exploit his weaknesses. I'm just not sure Barbarena is that guy. So I'll take a stab at those odds. Ortiz/Reis should be a competitive scrap, but I think Ortiz is the better striker, keeps a nice pace with high volume, and is just a little better everywhere. Finally, Caceres hasn't looked his best lately, but this seems like a clear match-up to help get him back on track. Probably keeps it standing and throws a decent amount of volume, and I wouldn't be surprised if he got it to the ground in a scramble or some sort of trip and took Fullen's back at some point for a sub. Just my thoughts. Nothing too exciting, but I think those fights are the ones that I feel most confident in. Follow along or play some of the fighters any way you feel like. Parlay them with basketball or even throw in Djokovic over Murray in the Australian Open Finals that takes place overnight. Good luck!

10 Unit Play
A. Johnson ITD (-190)

5 Unit Plays
S. Northcutt + A. Johnson (-105)
D. Ortiz + A. Johnson/R. Bader Under 5 Rounds (-130)
A. Caceres + A. Johnson/R. Bader Under 5 Rounds (-150)
L. Makashvili + A. Johnson/R. Bader Under 5 Rounds (-160)


2016 Record: 5-4 (+11.2 units)

*All plays are made on a scale of 1-10 units

Johnson/Northcutt all day. Great lines...let's make some $

BOL

10 Unit Play
A. Johnson ITD (-190)

5 Unit Plays
S. Northcutt + A. Johnson (-105)
D. Ortiz + A. Johnson/R. Bader Under 5 Rounds (-130)
A. Caceres + A. Johnson/R. Bader Under 5 Rounds (-150)
L. Makashvili + A. Johnson/R. Bader Under 5 Rounds (-160) *Push*/


Overall Tonight: 3-2 (+4.25 units)

2016 Record: 8-6 (+15.45 units)

*All plays are made on a scale of 1-10 units


Doesn't get much easier than that in terms of hitting my biggest play. Somewhat of a silly decision on Bader's part to just fly across the octagon right off the bat in a poor attempt at a takedown. Once Rumble spun around to his back and maintained his position, it was only a matter of time before he unloaded a few bombs. Bader looked like a lifeless corpse as Rumble got up and walked away. Such a scary monster in that division. I can't wait for Bones/DC and then hopefully Bones/Rumble.

As far as the rest of the card went, a point deduction from Makashvili turned that play into basically a single leg play, so the units were calculated accordingly there (essentially 5 units to win 1 unit). Caceres took care of business in a "get-back-on-track" fight. Ortiz simply got outclassed by Reis, where I didn't think that would be the case. Reis looked really good tonight and I give him all of the credit. Bad pick there. And Northcutt finally hit that wall I was afraid of. I honestly didn't think it would be this fight though. He looked good early, but Barbarena is a tough dude and weathered the storm. Sage still looks like he has a ton of work to do on the ground. As Rogan said, I've never seen someone tap from an arm-triangle in halfguard. It was an insta-tap too. Northcutt looked like he had never been in that position before or faced adversity and panicked. Those were all questions I was waiting to see be answered at some point. Just didn't think Barbarena was the guy to do it on short notice. Awesome somersault by Barbarena after the fight too lol. I still thought it was worth a shot at -260 after the big line drop. The UFC just couldn't help themselves and have really rushed him along. He's got a ton of potential though.

Overall, I thought the card kind of sucked. Some boring fights. Glad to have made some money overall though. See you guys next weekend!

Overlooked the amount of training it takes to defend these attacks, or even realize you are being set up for various chokes, armbars, leg locks. Especially in clinch, against BJJ, and wrestlers, way too much for him to learn in a year. 

Decent night Money!!!!!!!!!! Sometimes we have too grind out a few wins. Loved the somersault, hated the interview!!!!!!!!!!! And yes alot of boring fights and alot of fighters to bet against in the future.

@j-money

Johnson ITD and under 5 in that fight looked like winners to me. Bruce LeeRoy also a winner, hmm

Are you in the right forum? Did you watch any of the fights? Do you know who Anthony Johnson is? It sounds like the answer to all 3 of those questions has to be a definitive "NO" Pretty sure I recapped my record for the event and went 3-2, hitting my max play, and walking way with 4+ units. Did you not see Johnson pound out Bader in about a minute and a half?

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Yea, what he said . You just joined Covers and have 1 other post entitled "John Groce head coach Illinois"  In it, you state "Hey, does anyone know if this guy is mentally retarded? Thanks."

Sounds like you're not all there....