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50-38 &#x2B;20.5 Bader &#x2B;210 over DavisVery similar fighters. Bader loses to superior strikers (Lyoto, Glover) while Phil loses to fighters who he can&#x27;t take down (Rashad, Rumble). What&#x27;s the difference? Phil has better striking defense while Bader has more power. In a fight that will be exclusively on the feet, this favors the guy that will have a more likely chance to stumble his opponent, and that&#x27;s Ryan.Not Mousasi inside distance -125 over HendoI fully expect this to be a Mousasi decision. But I appreciate the chance to bet on Hendo&#x27;s durability and chance to land that H-Bomb at basically even odds against anyone not at the highest top 10 p4p fighters that ever lived.Sultan Aliev -105 over Kenny RobertsonAmerican wrestlers with limited striking abilities have the worst match-ups with strong strikers with good takedown defense. That&#x27;s Aliev. If you&#x27;re a striking based fighter from Russia, you don&#x27;t make it to the UFC without great takedown defense, because Russia is better than us in wrestling.Mirsad Bektic inside distance &#x2B;110 over Paul RedmondMirsad is better in all areas, a better athlete and a stronger fighter. Bektic likes to finish and Redmond loses in the finish. I may have a few more. Good luck!

OnTheO · Answer

50-38 &#x2B;20.5 Bader &#x2B;210 over DavisVery similar fighters. Bader loses to superior strikers (Lyoto, Glover) while Phil loses to fighters who he can&#x27;t take down (Rashad, Rumble). What&#x27;s the difference? Phil has better striking defense while Bader has more power. In a fight that will be exclusively on the feet, this favors the guy that will have a more likely chance to stumble his opponent, and that&#x27;s Ryan.Not Mousasi inside distance -125 over HendoI fully expect this to be a Mousasi decision. But I appreciate the chance to bet on Hendo&#x27;s durability and chance to land that H-Bomb at basically even odds against anyone not at the highest top 10 p4p fighters that ever lived.Sultan Aliev -105 over Kenny RobertsonAmerican wrestlers with limited striking abilities have the worst match-ups with strong strikers with good takedown defense. That&#x27;s Aliev. If you&#x27;re a striking based fighter from Russia, you don&#x27;t make it to the UFC without great takedown defense, because Russia is better than us in wrestling.Mirsad Bektic inside distance &#x2B;110 over Paul RedmondMirsad is better in all areas, a better athlete and a stronger fighter. Bektic likes to finish and Redmond loses in the finish. I may have a few more. Good luck!

Ferrari29 · Answer

Hey O, my Davis(10) vs. your Bader(5). A friendly wager!!!!

sawman · Answer

Nice thoughts.

Ferrari29 · Answer

you like that sawman!!!!! btw oilers or flames??????

OnTheO · Answer

For sure! My write-up was gonna be - "I&#x27;m just fading Ferrari."

OnTheO · Answer

Thanks! Good luck this week.

Ferrari29 · Answer

LMFAO, love it. I just read Patrick Wyman&#x27;s write up. Either I&#x27;m way off or adding a stack!!!

MMAwizard · Answer

&#xD;&#xA;fu**ing hilarious

MMAwizard · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by OnTheO] 50-38 &#x2B;20.5 &#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;Bader &#x2B;210 over Davis&#xD;&#xA;Very similar fighters. Bader loses to superior strikers (Lyoto, Glover) while Phil loses to fighters who he can&#x27;t take down (Rashad, Rumble). What&#x27;s the difference? Phil has better striking defense while Bader has more power. In a fight that will be exclusively on the feet, this favors the guy that will have a more likely chance to stumble his opponent, and that&#x27;s Ryan.&#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;[/Quote]&#xD;&#xA;thanks for your taught on previous tread, so I will try to help you in return. Don&#x27;t bet on bader... bader his no rashad or rumble, not even close&#xD;&#xA; The footwork of davis his way better than bader and overall striking too,.but even better, he controls distance very well.        Yes power goes to bader but davis has not shown a tendency to get hurt,  phil won the stand up battle with Machida, a thing I think bader could not do even if he solely focused on striking for 3 years straight. &#xD;&#xA;I don&#x27;t write this to be right or wrong, I am just trying to give you my opinion to help you make a more enlighten decision

forty9ersfan80 · Answer

gustaffson is a great fighter with a awesome chin. He impressed me in the jon jones fight but i think he is overvalued in this fight. His big weakness is his defense and the speed and power of anthony johnson will be a problem. I think johnson knocks him out.

OnTheO · Answer

I know Bader is the most controversial pick, I just think phil is better in his striking defense while Bader is better in his offensive striking. Bader gets tagged up by powerful strikers because he defends shots with his head, but I think he can catch Phil. Even if he can&#x27;t finish him, if he can catch him early, I think it drastically changes phil when he gets tagged early (Rumble). Without Phil&#x27;s ability to have a safety valve (takedown), I just think Ryan has a very good chance. I&#x27;ve been wrong before though!

forty9ersfan80 · Answer

I like the mousasi inside distance pick and agree with your reasoning.

MMAwizard · Answer

&#xD;&#xA;well at least if you wait till fight time I think you will have a great line. I took phil has soon has it came out because I knew it would drop very low.

OnTheO · Answer

Alright guys, in order from favorite to least.

Bektic/Redmond does not go to decision* -160 2 to win 1.2

Aliev -160 over Robertson 2 to win 1.2

Not Mousasi Inside Distance -160 1.6 to win 1

Taisumov Inside Distance over Christodoulou -130 1.3 to win 1

Bader +210 over Davis 1 to win 2.1

*Changed from original bet of Bektic ITD, which is now listed at -130. It's worth the extra 30 cents because Redmond does have a nasty toe hold. Redmond missed weight and looked horrible in the weigh-in, so I imagine he has one round for that technique.

As always, good luck!

sawman · Answer

Redmond did look brutal. I definitely thought to fade him when seeing that

ParlayJoe17 · Answer

I tried to hammer Bektic ITD but could only get 100 at 5d, but did get it at +110. Gustaffson, Aliev, and Musoke are my biggest plays - bet those early and got good lines. The Hendo not getting finished prop has really moved - I prob should still take it, but it's not quite as appealing at -160. I kind of like Bader as a dog, but will probably lay off - been burned too many times by him. He just doesn't seem to have a very high fight IQ. I copied the Taisumov finish too.. -130 seems pretty good when he is like -800 to win the fight.

Pretty pumped for this card - thanks for posting your pix on here. Seeing your record and analysis makes me feel pretty confident when tailing.

OnTheO · Answer

^^ Thanks, man. And good luck with your picks tonight!

Ferrari29 · Answer

good luck tonite O

whipton · Answer

BOL home slice

MMAwizard · Answer

..................................................................................................................................................................................Watch Bloodsport.... the white guy wins in the end

OnTheO · Answer

Wow, high caliber HWs are hard to come by. Imagine what Cain, Werdum, Hunt, JDS, etc would do to these guys.

MMAwizard · Answer

disgusting .. he could have finished redmond so easily, but decided not too. i hate fighters like that. each time they spend 15 seconds on the feet he rocked redmond but has soon has he had him hurt, he brought him on the ground.... this guy his not a finisher, not in the pro leagues anyway

OnTheO · Answer

Yeah, definitely learned a bit about Mirsad in that fight. A lot of these up and coming big prospects want to really impress with their styles, but I think Mirsad is looking for the straightest line to a win. Not the most exciting fight, but GSP had some of the same critique. OTOH, Taisumov looked like a beast.

str8edgejedi · Answer

brutal loss on that ITD Bektic pick. Bektic should have had a KO. best of luck on the rest of your card bro

OnTheO · Answer

It happens. I sure wish I would win them all though!Good luck to you too.

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