UFC on ESPN 8 (Overeem vs Harris)

Rodrigo Nascimento vs Don'Tale Mayes

Mayes -110

If he can stay on his feet, he should win this fight.  I bet him his last two Contender Series fights ITD but I'm just playing it straight up tonight.

Courtney Casey vs Mara Romero Borella

No interest in this fight.  Casey should probably win, but she looked like crap on the scale and she's even moving up 10 lbs.  Not a good sign.  I could see Borella winning a close split decision and ruining a bunch of early parlays.  

Darren Elkins vs Nate Landwehr

Landwehr +110
Landwehr Wins Inside Distance +240
Landwehr Wins in Round 2 +650
Landwehr Wins in Round 3 +1125
Elkins Wins in Round 3 +1800

I'm a big Elkins fan.  The dude has so much heart and has pulled off some big upsets for me in the past.  I know he's fought three killers in his last three fights which were losses, but he still doesn't look the same and lost some of his motor.  I faded Landwehr in his debut against Herbert Burns, but bet Burns by Submission and he landed that big knee to win the fight.  I like Landwehr tonight.  I think he has the striking edge and if he's taken down, won't get held down.  I'm hedging out a bit with Elkins late finish, but I expect Landwehr to win this fight.

Giga Chikadze vs Irwin Rivera

Rivera +315
Rivera Wins Inside Distance +590
Rivera Wins in Round 2 +1450
Rivera Wins in Round 3 +2150

Chikadze slowed down in his past two fights late, losing both 3rd rounds IMO.  Rivera is taking this on short notice and it's his UFC debut, but I'm hoping his cardio is in good shape tonight.  I think the lack of a crowd is most likely a positive for a debut fighter.  He's won his last two fights by 4th round stoppages.  I think the dog money is too good to pass up.  Chikadze is a solid fighter, but laying that much is crazy IMO.

Anthony Hernandez vs Kevin Holland

Hernandez -105
Hernandez Wins Inside Distance +290
Hernandez Wins by Submission +420

Kevin Holland is not a very good fighter.  He beat a jouneyman (Currently 9-7 fighter) by decision as a -1200 favorite on DWCS in 2018.  Then for some reason was fed Thiago Santos on a PPV and got his ass beat.  Then he comes back and beats up John Phillips as a huge -650 favorite.  He's then a big favorite against Meerschaert and was gifted a split decision.  Then he was a big favorite against Di Chirico and was gifted another decision.  Then he fought Brendan Allen this past October and I had a massive bet on Allen and Allen subbed him in the 2nd.  I think Holland is very overrated and Hernandez is underrated.  Holland is 0 threat on the ground and I just don't see him knocking out Hernandez.  If he wins a boring standup decision, then so be it, but I think Hernandez will eventually get him on the ground and submit him, like Allen did.

Matt Brown vs Miguel Baeza

Brown +140
Brown Inside the Distance +275
Brown Wins by Submission +1375


Fuckk it, I'm betting Matt Brown.  Miguel Baeza has never impressed me.  His UFC Debut was against arguably one of the worst fighters in the UFC.  I'm going with experience in this one.

I'll post main card in a bit.  Don't blindly tail these.  Do you own research.

And remember.  If you parlay two favorites in MMA, cancel your accounts and stop betting MMA, because you will lose your money in the long term.  It's scared wagering.  Find a prop and if you can't find a prop you like, lay off the fight.  And if your book doesn't have props for MMA, go find one that does or don't bet MMA.  

Song Yadong vs Marlon Vera

Fight Goes to Decision -115
Yadong Wins by Decision +135
Yadong Wins in Round 3 +1250
Vera Wins in Round 3 +1400

Eryk Anders vs Krzysztof Jotko

Have no opinion on this fight.  Going for a prop.

Anders Wins in Round 3 +1500
Jotko Wins in Round 3 +1550

Dan Ige vs Edson Barboza

Barboza Wins Inside Distance +320
Barboza Wins in Round 2 +800
Barboza Wins in Round 3 +1500


I've been a big Ige fan over his past few fights.  I bet him against Arce in his debut after his DWCS win and he lost a tough one.  He's now won 5 in a row and I have bet him in his last two wins over Aguilar and Bektic.  I knew he had the game plan to beat those guys.  I don't like his chances tonight, however.  I faded Barboza against Khabib, Lee, and Gaethje fights and cleaned up.  But, I think those 3 are killers and Ige is not.  I think Barboza is the better fighter, will be able to keep it standing, and hurt Ige very badly.  

Claudia Gadelha vs Angela Hill

Hill +220
Hill by Decision +325
Hill Wins in Round 2 +1750
Hill Wins in Round 3 +2200

Angela Hill is usually in super close fights, but she has looked great in her last three, all be against weaker competition, but she still stays in fights even when she's losing.  I think Gadelha has had a few fights in a row get cancelled due and not sure where her head is at right now.  I can see this fight going like the Ansaroff fight and Hill edges out a close decision.  I think this could be another parlay killer.  I'm taking the very active Hill.

Alistair Overeem vs Walt Harris

Overeem +135
Overeem Wins by Decision +650
Overeem Wins in Round 4 +1350
Overeem Wins in Round 5 +2050

glad to see one of the regs posting...good luck tonight

Good Luck, Shango 

And ignore those who only show up to track a loss. Some of us still appreciate your contributions

Thanks for posting Papashango! Don't listen to the haters on here and let them run you off or stop you from providing your free insight.

As you stated, don't blindly tail and no one is forcing anybody to play your picks. I've seen it many times on this site that runs off a lot of contributors on here . Good luck tonight

Hernandez what a joke lol

Matt Brown goes down damn