UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus

Sayles vs Leavitt

First match up of the night. Grappler vs Striker. Sayles hasn't fought in 2 years, and in that 2 years he dealt with an ACL injury so it will be interesting too see how he looks. He is a striker with good power, and loves to march forward and keep his opponent backing up. He does have 80% take down defense and he will need that in this fight against someone like Leavitt. In comes the the Grappler. Leavitt is a one dimensional fighter who will always look too grapple and work the fight too the ground. His striking is below average, which sometimes causes issues with his take downs setups. I think the path is clear for both guys. If Sayles wants a victory he will have to defend the TD, if Leavitt wants the victory, he will need take downs. I lean Sayles at even money, but those odds aren't good enough for me too pull the trigger. 

Mayes vs Parisian 

Heavyweight battle. Striker vs Striker. Both guys are coming off victories against the same opponent. Mayes is a very powerful puncher, but does have flaws in his technique. He will mix in kicks well, and likes to march forward and put pressure in the face of his opponent. He does throw with intent with each and every shot, so cardio is a real concern as the fight goes on. Parisian is a volume striker. He like Mayes, will look too march forward and throw combinations. He is a durable fighter with a solid chin. If he can survive the initial barrage from Mayes, I think he has the advantage as the fight goes on. I lean Parisian at +175. 

Pennington vs Chiasson 

First ladies fight of the night. Pennington is a well rounded fighter, who has fought the very best opponents in her career. She is a solid striker, but her game plan normally is too tie her opponent up and control them against the cage. She isn't always looking for the take down, but is more then capable of doing so if necessary. Her cardio is a weapon, and has the same pace threw out the fight which makes her style a challenge too fight against. Chiasson is a tall and rangy fighter. She is a solid striker who uses her range well. Her jab is solid, and she uses that well with her range. She does have a 2/1 striking differential, and that has a lot too do with her length. If she can keep her opponent at range, she finds a lot of success, and I think that is the X factor in this fight. If she can keep Pennington off her, and at bay, I think she has more then enough skills too secure a victory. At +165 I lean Chiasson. 

Jourdain vs Ewell 

This should be a fun fight. Jourdain lost his last fight late by submission, but before that he was looking good and I think was winning the fight. He is a fun fighter, with a pressing style and is always looking too throw different attacks at his opponent. He is very tough and can eat shots, and return big ones of his own. He uses his speed and footwork well, and times his shots nicely. Ewell is an athletic fighter with solid boxing. He is very fast and has creative striking. His big negative is his cardio. He tends to fade, and fade early, which has caused issues in past fights. Against someone as active as Jourdain, that could be a real issue. I think Jourdain's movement will have Ewell chasing, and I think that will cause issues for Ewell. I like Jourdain to win inside distance  & under 2.5 rounds in this fight. 

Eubanks vs Gatto 

Both ladies coming off impressive victories this summer. Eubanks is a veteran, with an OK record. She is better then her record says in my opinion, and is a challenge for anyone in this weight class. This is her 2nd fight at 125 pounds, which I think suits her better. She loves too grapple an bully her opponent, and that is normally her path to victory. In comes Gatto who looked great in her UFC debut. She is a young fighter with a lot of potential. She also likes too grapple, but unlike Eubanks, she has solid striking that she uses well too set up take downs. She is good off her back with creative submissions, and is a threat everywhere. I think if she pushes the pace, and doesn't let Eubanks control the exchanges, she wins this fight easily, and at +135 I really like the value in Gatto ML. 

Tafa vs Hunsucker 

Messy heavyweight match up. Hunsucker is a blitzing style fighter, who marches forward and throws wild combinations. His technique is awful and sloppy, and if he want's too stick around the UFC, he will have too change his game plan. Tafa is a tough gritty heavyweight. He has lethal leg kicks and is always looking too chop down his opponent's legs. He does have a great chin, and is very durable. I don't like anything betting wise in this fight, but I can see a more conservative approach from Hunsucker in this match up, so over 1.5 rounds at +175 I think is worth a look.  

Barcelos vs Henry 

This should be another fun fight. Barcelos is a well rounded fighter who is crisp in all areas. He has very good kicks, solid striking and good offensive and defensive wrestling.He has solid hand speed with solid power, and great fight IQ. Henry is making his UFC debut, but is no stranger too MMA. He is a very creative striker who uses all his limbs when fighting. He will mix in elbows, kicks, knees etc. He is always looking too march forward and engage with his opponent. I think he will look too do just that against someone as complete as Barcelos. He will look to bait him into a fire fight, and potentially catching him with big shots. I like this fight too end inside the distance at even money. 

FYI 

Chiasson missed weight by 2.5 pounds 

Eubanks missed weight by 1.5 pounds 

Tafa missed weight by 1 pound 

Meerschaert vs Stoltzfus

Weird match up. Meerschaert was struggling before winning his last two fights VIA submission. His knock has been his chin, but in his last fight he was rocked a couple times but stayed in the fight. Will it hold up again? I guess we will see, I'm not fully sold. He is always looking too get the fight too the ground and work his submissions, and that is his clear path to victory again in this match up. Stoltzfus still looking for his first UFC win. He is 0-2 so far. He is an OK striker, but does have legit power. He is decent off his back, so if he does find himself on the ground, it will be interesting too see how he responds against someone as dangerous as Meerschaert. I think if he can defend the take downs early, He can touch up Meerschaert and will have the clear advantage in the stand up. I lean Stoltzfus at +180 but Im not sure sure If i want to bet that just yet. 

Elkins vs Swanson 

First fight on the main card, and this should be a fun one. Elkins is a grinder. That is his strength. He will look too tire his opponent out with his gritty style. He is always marching forward throwing big shots, and will mix in take downs nicely. He isn't the most technical fighter, but makes it up with his toughness and non stop style. If he does get on top, he does have heavy top pressure and the ability too finish his opponent. Swanson is coming into this fight after that quick KO loss against Giga. Before that loss he was on a nice 2 fight win streak. He is a brawler who has been in all sorts of fights in his career. He is a creative striker with power & great fight IQ. The only thing holding Cub back at this stage, would be his age. Can he hold up against someone like Elkins? I love the value with Elkins, but I'm not backing a side in this fight. I like this fight too end inside distance at even money. 

Gamrot vs Ferreira 

This should be another fun fight. Gamrot is a complete fighter with a great set of skills. He has great wrestling, solid striking with good volume and solid power. He is very creative with his attacks and is dangerous just about everywhere. His speed is a strength, and always has his opponent guessing his next move. Ferreira is a high level grappler who is dangerous when he can get on top. His take down accuracy isn't great at around 27%. His striking has improved & does posses solid power but that isn't his strength's. I think Gamrot is better in all areas and should dominated this fight. I'm not sure If I want too take him inside the distance at +200 or take him ML in a parlay.  

Simon vs Assuncao 

Wild odds on this fight. Sure Assuncao hasn't fought in over a year, and riding a 3 fight losing streak, but Simon at -300 is wild. Assuncao is a veteran who has fought the very best fighters over his career, beating a lot of those guys. He is a well rounded fighter, who started as a grappler, but has solid enough striking too hold his own. He is aging and has a lot of question marks, but against someone as aggressive as Simon, he could find some opportunities in this fight. Simon comes into this fight riding a 3 fight win streak, and he's looked impressive in that span. He is a high energy fighter with great wrestling. His cardio and non stop style is his biggest asset. He is always marching forward, and loves too get in the face of his opponent. I actually think his high pace style could get make him vulnerable against someone with the experience of Assuncao. I will most likely pass on this fight, but I might sprinkle a little on Assunca ML. 

Lemos vs Hill 

Interesting fight here. The powerful Lemos will look to keep things rolling here. Her last two wins were 1st round KO's, and she will look for another finish in this fight. She is big for the weight class, and uses her size and strength well. She manages range well, and that is very dangerous for her opponent, especially with her power. She does have 100% take down accuracy, although she isn't looking for take downs often. In comes the average Angela Hill. She exchanges wins & losses, and is just an OK fighter. Her strength is her fight IQ, and knowing what to do, and when to do it, & she will need that in this fight. I think Lemos will come out firing, so Hill's only chance is too survive the early barrage, and hope too tire Lemos out as the fight goes on. I lean Lemos inside the distance, but I will most likely pass on this fight. 

Thompson vs Muhammad 

Co Main event. Tricky match up. Thompson is a karate style fighter, with a wide stance and solid movement. He is a solid striker with fast hands and OK power. His last fight was concerning as he was taken down a bunch of times against Burns, and against someone like Muhammad, that could be a real problem. I think he will be fully aware of the take down ability of Muhammad, and will look to use his movement & kicks too keep Muhammad at bay. In comes Muhammad who is a non stop wrestler. He is always looking for the take down, and that is always his game plan. He has shown improved striking, but his clear advantage in most of his match ups, is his wrestling, no different in this fight. I lean Thompson by decision at + money. 

Lewis vs Daukaus 

No breakdown on this fight. I lean Daukaus, but I cant bet against the 1 punch power of Lewis, against Daukaus who is primarily a striker. Pass. 

Prelim picks, 

Parisian ML +170 - 1 unit to win 1.7 units 

Chiasson ML +140 - 1 unit to win 1.4 units 

Jourdain/Ewell under 2.5 rounds +115 - 1 unit to win 1.15 units 

Gatto ML +135 - 2 units to win 2.70 units 

Tafa/Hunsucker over 1.5 rounds +175 - 1 unit to win 1.75 units 

Stoltzfus wins inside distance +450 - 0.5 units to win 2.25 units 

Main Card picks, 

Assuncao ML +240 - 0.5 units to win 1.20 units 

Thompson by decision +105 - 1 unit to win 1.05 units 

Parlay, 

Jourdain ML/ Gamrot ML +126 - 1.5 units to win 1.89 units 

Enjoy the holidays