Demopoulos vs Juarez
Opening fight of 2022. Both ladies coming off losses in their UFC debuts a few months ago. Odds opened at even money, but since has shifted towards Demopoulos which I think is warranted. Demopoulos lost her UFC debut back in late August with a short notice fight at 125 pounds. This fight is back at her natural weight class of 115 which I think benefits her. She is a striker with solid speed and good footwork. She likes to get inside the pocket and use volume strikes to overwhelm her opponent. She isn't a great wrestler, but does have OK offensive grappling. Juarez also lost her debut, but by submission. Like Demopoulos, she is mainly a striker. She does have more power in her hands, but unlike Demopoulos, she likes too use her reach and fight at range. She does have solid kicks, and will use those too manager range. I lean Demopoulos, but I missed the boat at even money odds. If things shift back towards even money I might play her at ML, but will most likely pass on this fight.
Kakhramonov vs Kelleher
Experience vs Prospect. Should be an entertaining fight. Kakhramonov no doubt is a solid prospect with a well rounded set of skills. He won his UFC debut back in August via submission and looked solid. He did show some flaws in that fight, which play into the style of Kelleher, so it will be interesting to see how he handles the experience of Kelleher. He is a solid striker who uses kicks well too manager his range. His jab is a strength, and he does have solid offensive wrestling. In his last fight and some of his fights outside the UFC, he has shown too slow as the fight goes on, and has also shown too give up positions which finds himself in negative situations. Kelleher has loads of experience and is a well rounded fighter. He is a solid striker with an aggressive style who is always looking for finishes. He moved up too 145 for a few fights and didn't fair so well, but is back at 135 where he is much better suited. He is a solid grappler and likes too grind down his opponent, and I think that could give someone like Kakhramonov issues later in the fight. I lean with the experience of Kelleher at + money, but I'm not ready too commit just yet.
Borschev vs Bush
UFC debut for Borschev after an impressive win on the contender series. He is a legit striker with real power. His jab is lethal & has solid kicks. He has shown good cardio in the past, and that will be very important in this fight against someone like Bush who fights with a high output/pace. Bush lost his UFC debut back in April of last year on short notice. He did look solid in that fight, but not enough too earn a result. He is a solid striker with good low kicks. He uses his timing well too set up take downs, and once on top he does have heavy top pressure and control. I think that is the X factor in this fight. Can Bush take down and keep Borschev on the mat? If so I think he will grind out a victory in this match up. I think Borschev will have opportunities early in this fight, but if Bush can survive the early attack, I lean Bush at +165.
Benitez vs Brown
Crazy odds in my opinion. I give Benitez the slight edge, but Benitez sitting at -190 is crazy. I think Brown has a clear path too victory in this match up, & that is wrestle. Brown averages 4 T/Ds per fight and he is not scared too shoot take downs all fight. He does get in trouble when he abandons his wrestling and decides too strike primarily, so if he can stick too his strengths, I think he has a real shot at victory. He is a capable striker, and he is at his best when he uses his pressure to nullify his opponent and get them off balance too set up his take downs. Benitez is 1-3 in his last 4 fights, so I'm not sure if I'm missing something on these odds. He is a solid striker with lethal kicks. He does have good movement, and he uses that movement too keep his opponent off balance, so that is something too keep and eye on in this fight. His take down defense is around 56% so that is another factor too watch in this fight. Can Brown use his aggressive style too pressure Benitez and work this fight too the ground? At these current odds of +150 I will take a chance on Brown. I also like Brown inside distance at +350.
Mcgee vs Brahimaj
Some might remember Brahimaj when his ear fell off back in 2020. He lost that fight, but since then he won his only bout in 2021 with an impressive submission. He is a world class grappler with fantastic take down attempts. All 9 of his professional wins have come VIA submission, and he is a real threat on the ground. He has solid power, but he uses it mainly too set up his take downs. If he can stick too his strengths he should find success in this match up. In comes the veteran Court Mcgee. He has loads of experience and has fought some the the best fighters during his career. He is extremely durable and is always a hard match up for whoever hes going against. He isn't great at one thing, but is well rounded in all areas. I find it hard betting against guys like Mcgee, especially when its a guy who doesn't have a lot of experience on the other end, but at almost even money I like the upside in Ramiz. Another option is Ramiz by decision at +265 odds. I will wait and see how the odds move as the week goes on.
Holmes vs Pickett
Two giants match up here. Holmes making his official UFC debut after a contender series victory back in October. He is taking this fight on short notice, that should be noted. He has a massive reach, but so does Pickett. Holmes likes to use his movement and pick his shots, and will mix in take downs too keep his opponent guessing. He will look too grapple and slow down his opponent when the opportunity presents itself. Similar to Holmes, Pickett is a massive fighter. He does have a negative striking differential of 1-2, but that is mainly because he's a conservative striker and tends too sit back and pick his shots. I think this will be a conservative match up with two fighters with similar styles. I like this fight too go the distance at +130 odds.
Recap 
Prelim picks,
Kelleher/Croom fight goes distance(YES) +120 - 1 unit to win 1.20 units 
Brahimaj wins by decision +250 - 1 unit to win 2.50 units 
Holmes/Pickett fight goes distance(YES) +120 - 1 unit to win 1.20 units
Main card picks,
Brito ML -150 - 2.5 units to win 1.67 units
Borschev/Bush fight goes distance (YES) +150 - 1 unit to win 1.50 units
2-3 -2.1 units
YTD -2.1 units
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