UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez

YTD 57-77 +2.70 units 

Looking to keep things going again this weekend. 

As always, will have insight & picks as the week goes on 

GL ALL 

Jung vs Nzechukwu 

First fight of the night. Both guys coming into this fight on a solid winning streak, and will look to keep things going. Jung is a technical fighter who will look to grind out victories. He has clean striking but not a ton of power, and he is a solid wrestler. In his last fight earlier this year, he took William Knight down 8 times and controlled him and won a decision. Nzechukwu has legit power, and that is normally what he uses to secure victories. He is a long fighter who will look too throw big punches and always marching forward. His take down defense is solid, around 80% so that could play a factor in this fight. Problem with Nzechukwu is that he finds himself down on rounds early, and needing a knockout late in the fight for the win. That will eventually cost you fights. If Nzechukwu can keep it standing I give him the edge in this fight, but I have a hard time backing him too win this fight. I will most likely pass on this one, unless I see something later in the week. 

Diakiese vs Alves 

This should be a decent match up. Diakiese is making his return after a year layoff. He is a very good kick boxer with solid power. He likes to work his kicks and body shots into his game plan early too work his opponent down. He is a very durable fighter who rarely gets finished. He does have some issues getting back too his feet against solid wrestlers, but I don't think that will be a huge issue here. He has also fought really good competition since joining the UFC, so he will come prepared. Alves is coming into this fight after losing his debut back in May. Alves has good speed and solid power. He is always looking for the finish, standing or on the ground. He is the more dangerous fighter of the two, but I give Diakiese the edge in in overall skill set. Alves has shown he can fade as the fight goes on, and I think that will be the X factor in this fight. I lean Diakiese in this fight. 

Casey vs Jojua 

First ladies fight of the night. Casey looking too get back on track after losing her last two. Her striking is OK as is her grappling. She has fought the better competition of the two fighter's so she will be the more experienced fighter. She is solid when she is in top control, but when she finds herself on the bottom, she doesn't offer much. Jojua coming off a bad doctors stoppage a year ago, also looking too get back on track. She is an average striker, who will look too throw big counter punches. She is dangerous when she finds herself on the ground, but weird enough, she doesn't have the best offensive take downs. She is always marching forward, but her defense isn't great and finds herself getting hit more often than not. I think these odds are a little too wide, but Jojua hasn't shown me enough too back her on the ML. I will most likely pass on this fight. 

Woodson vs Anglin 

Opposite styles here. Woodson is the better striker of the two, and that's what he will lean on in this fight. He has a massive 8 inch reach advantage, and I think he will use it well in this fight. He does have solid take down defense and he will absolutely need that here. Anglin is coming off a KO loss a couple months ago. He is a solid striker who will look too work in body shots and eventually work in some take downs. His strength is his ground game, and if he gets on top, his top control & ground & pound is dangerous. Will he be able too close the distance on Woodson and drag him too the ground? That's the money question. Like the first few fight's I will most likely pass on this. 

Baeza vs Williams 

This should be a fun fight. Baeza is a technical fighter with a solid overall skill set. He has shown improvements in all his fights. He is a solid striker, has good kicks too manage range and slow his opponent down. His ground game is good & is very capable of getting the fight too the ground. He uses his movement and speed well too keep his opponents off balance and always thinking. Williams on the other hand is a big power puncher with legit knockout ability. He also has solid kicks. What will his take down defense look like? Will Baeza be content on standing and striking, or will he mix things up and look to get this too the ground? I lean Baeza with more ways of winning, but I cant ignore the power of Williams. Again, I'm finding it hard too find value in all these fights so far. I will monitor these lines as the weeks goes on. 

Calvillo vs Lee 

Interesting fight here. Very quick turnaround for Calvillo , who just lost over a month ago by TKO. Rare too see a fighter turnaround that quick after a TKO. Calvillo is a well rounded fighter, but she doesn't excel in one area. She is an average striker, has decent grappling & solid take downs. When she finds herself on top, she can outpoint her opponent. Her power isn't really a threat and her lack of speed & athleticism limits what she can do. Lee is riding a 1 fight win streak coming into this fight. She is the better striker of the two ladies, and her grappling has gotten better in each fight. She is very tough, and I think if she can defend the early take downs from Calvillo she will find some success in her striking. I lean Lee at +110. 

Moises vs Alvarez 

This is another interesting match up. Moises coming off that loss to Islam back in July will look for a quick turnaround and get back on track. He is a technical striker with very good kicks. He uses his kicks to manage range and set up take downs against his opponent. Once on the ground, he is very comfortable and is always dangerous when hes on top. I think in this fight he has the clear advantage in the striking, so he Might want too keep this fight standing. Alvarez riding a 3 fight win streak will look too keep it rolling. Alvarez is very big for the division. He is an average striker and has OK kicks also. His last two victories were both by submission. What is interesting about Joel is he doesn't initiate take downs, but will welcome them against, and is very comfortable scrambling & working from bottom position. I lean Moises as I think he has the clear striking advantage, and think he will be aware of the threat from Alvarez on the ground. I will wait for weigh ins too make a decision on this fight. 

FYI 

Alvarez has missed weight for his second straight fight. Fight will continue at catch weight. 

Jojua also missed weight. Fight will continue at catch weight. 

Yadong vs Arce 

This should be a fun fight. Very close match up. Yadong is a very good striker with solid power & volume. He is very quick and creative in his striking exchanges. He is hittable, and is willing too stand in the pocket in order to return big shots back. He has shown vulnerable too takedowns, but once on the ground he is very capable of getting back up so I don't see that being an issue in this fight. Arce another technical striker with good power. He is very good offensively, and defensively he uses his movement to avoid shots and return shots of his own. He has good cardio and with that comes volume. This should be a fun fight. I lean Yadong slightly, but at at +125 I see value in this fight ending inside the distance. 

Spencer vs Letson 

Lopsided match up. Spencer needs a win, and this is a good match up for her. Letson returns after a 3 year layoff. Apparently she's been dealing with injuries and weight issues. How will she look? I'm not sure, but I see Spencer coming out and looking for a finish. She needs a win after 2 consecutive losses, and I think she will use this match up too get back on track. Her two wins in the UFC both came by stoppage. At +200 I think Spencer inside distance has big time value. 

Rothwell vs De Lima 

Co main event. Interesting matchup. Rothwell coming off that submission victory earlier this year. His style of fighting is marching forward and pressing his opponent against the cage. He uses his size and strength too do so, and is always looking too grind his opponent down. He has a very durable chin, and is very hard too finish. He is vulnerable in the striking game if you can keep your distance and pick your shots. I think De Lima has too do just that if he wants too win this fight. De Lima coming off a decision victory. He has good power and solid kicks. I think he will need those kicks in this fight to maintain distance and pick apart Rothwell and stay off the fence.  If he can defend Rothwell's take downs and fence work, I think De Lima wins with his speed and striking combo. I'm not fully convinced he can do that, so I might pass on this fight.  

Holloway vs Rodriguez 

Lopsided odds. At -600 Holloway is the clear cut favorite & for good reason. One of the best strikers in the UFC, Rodriguez will have his hands full. Holloway is very smooth with his movement, and throws shots from all over and always has his opponent thinking. He hits his opponent at a 7/4 clip, and as the fight goes on his opponents really start too feel the damage. He also has solid take down defense. His level of competition is incredible and at only 29, feels likes he's been around forever. Rodriguez game plan should and most likely will be fighting a crazy fight. He will need to be creative and take chances in order too catch Max. He hasn't fought in 2 years which could be an issue with his timing. At + money I like Max too finish Rodriguez. 

Prelims, 

Jung wins by decision +175 - 1 unit to win 1.75 units

Lee ML +115 - 2 units to win 2.30 units 

Main Card, 

Yadong/Arce fight to go distance (NO) +130 - 1 unit to win 1.30 units 

Spencer wins inside distance +200 - 0.5 units to win 1 unit 

Parlay, 

Jung ML/Spencer ML/ De Lima ML/ Holloway ML 

+515 - 1 unit to win 5.15 units 

@paletta007

 Nicely done! GL this weekend

@The_Fist

Great insight

@murbani

  Hope it helped 

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