UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vettori

YTD 47-67 -4.90 units 

Good lineup of fights this weekend 

These early cards suck, but lets try and make some money   

GL as always   

Souza vs Markos 

First fight of the night. Odd match up too start the card. Souza 3-2 since joining the UFC will look to get back in the win column here. Souza is the better striker in this match up, but she is just average. She is heavy when she finds herself on top and has solid ground and pound. Her weakness is when she finds herself on the bottom, with very little technique to get back up or ability to work any submissions from bottom position. Markos on the other hand is on a 4 fight skid. Her last fight was a DQ, but she was getting dominated before that outcome. She is a veteran fighter, with more experience against quality opponents. Her striking is below average and not really a threat. She will look for take downs, but even at that, they aren't very crisp. Like Souza, when she finds herself in bottom position, she has very little to offer in terms of working back up. I think whoever finds the take downs will separate on the scorecards and win this fight. I will most likely pass on this fight, but I lean Markos at + money, with a better chance at getting this to the ground. 

Molina vs Lacerda 

This fight should be exciting. Both fighter's are aggressive and solid strikers. Molina like's to use kicks early and often to slow down his opponent as the fight goes on. Molina doesn't have great power, but his forward pressure and aggressive style makes him a tough opponent for anyone. Lacerda is making his UFC debut. Also a forward pressure fighter, who is always looking for a finish. Lacerda has the edge with his power, and can also work submission nicely if the fight makes it's way to the ground. I like this fight to end inside the distance currently at +110, and I also lean Lacerda at +150. I have no official play yet, but I will monitor these lines closely as the week rolls on. 

Herbert vs Worthy 

Two guys needing a win here. Both guys 0-2 in last two bouts. Worthy coming off two KO losses, and boy were they ugly. Worthy is a power puncher with good counter punches. He will take a punch, but is always looking too return a few punches right back. He is more then capable on the ground, but his last few fights didn't have the chance for that too happen. Herbert is also coming off two stoppage losses & will look to secure his first UFC victory. Herbert is always moving, and never finds himself flat footed. You would think that makes him hard to hit, but the numbers tell you something different. He gets hit, much more then he hits his opponent & that could be trouble against someone like Worthy. Currently sitting around -175, I think that line is way too wide. Could it be because Worthy's two quick knockout losses in his lats two? Maybe. I lean Worthy at + money, but not committing just yet. I think over 1.5 rounds at around evens is also worth a look, as I think these two fighters will feel each other out, knowing they both need a victory BAD. 

Staropoli vs Pickett 

Re booked fight. was originally supposed to happen couple weeks ago. Another set of fighter's who will be looking to get back in the win column. Both fighter's prefer to keep the fight standing, and both fighter's like to fight at range and stay on the outside. Pickett has almost a foot in reach advantage, so if he uses that to his benefit he could find some success.  Staropoli has the clear cardio advantage, as he never slow's no matter how long the fight goes. Weird match up here, but I think Pickett will use his reach, manage his range like he does so already, and if he can mix in some take downs he could put together a win here. At +200, I think Pickett is worth a look.  

Ricci vs Oliveira 

Opposite styles here. Ricci will look to grapple and do work on the ground. Oliveira is a tall lanky fighter, who will look to march forward and throw with power & kicks. Clear grappling advantage goes to Ricci here, and I think it will be on full display. Ricci lost her UFC debut back in June, but that fight was at 125 pounds. She is going back down to 115, where she is more comfortable. I think Ricci will look to finish this fight, and I will look for a prop with value as the week goes on. 

Park vs Rodrigues 

Coin flip odds & I think its correct. Both guys riding 3 fight win streaks and will look to keep it rolling. Park is a complete fighter. Solid jab/striking and has good take downs and he is dangerous when he gets on top. Rodrigues is also a good striker that loves to throw power. His stats will show 100% take down defense so we will see how that holds up. I think Park has the wrestling advantage, and if his past fight's are any indication of what is too come, we know he will shoot and try and mix things up. At even odds I lean Park, but this is a close fight, and the odds makers are spot on.  

I will have some insight/write ups on the main card tomorrow. 

Bet's wont be official until after weigh ins as usual   

Negemereanu vs Villanueva 

Two really tough opponents here. Negemereanu is a very tough fighter with solid striking. He can also bully his way to the ground if he finds himself in trouble and needing too. He is always looking to finish his opponent, and is never out of a fight. Villanueva also a solid striker, but that's about it. No real other options for him. He like Negemereanu is also very tough. He went up to heavyweight, but that didn't go so well, so he's back down to Light Heavyweight, which in my opinion, is still undersized. I think Negemereanu gets the victory here, but I will not be betting a side. I will look into over rounds here, as I think both guys are very tough, and should last a bit in this fight. Will monitor the round lines as the week rolls on. 

Trinaldo vs Grant 

Interesting Match up here. 43 year old Trinaldo comes into this fight as the slight favorite & I think its deserved. The more complete fighter, Trinaldo is solid all around. Yes he is 43, but no he doesn't fight or look like it. He possesses good power, ability to wrestle and grapple. Will his age finally start to show? We will see. Grant is a tall and long fighter. He likes to fight at range and control distance against his opponent. He also has really god take down defense. He does seem to fade as the fight goes on, and that could be a factor here. I think Trinaldo being the shorter fighter, will look to get inside the pocket, and frustrate Grant and grind out a victory. I lean Trinaldo. 

Choi vs Caceres  

This should be a fun fight. Both solid fighters. Caceres is underrated, odds makers have him sitting at +240 which I think carry's some value. Caceres is a solid fighter, who is well versed in all areas. He is only 33 years old, but has a ton of fight's and experience under his belt. He is riding a 4 fight win streak, and will look to keep it rolling against a very difficult opponent. Choi riding a 3 fight win streak, will look to keep his momentum going. He is a very crisp striker, who works in his take downs very nicely. He isn't looking for submissions, but will look to damage his opponent while on top, and wear his opponent down. I like the value in Caceres, but I cant commit in betting against the up and coming Choi. I will most likely sit back and watch how these guys go at it. 

Clark vs Edwards 

I missed the boat on the ML bet here. Earlier in the week Clark was sitting around -135/-140, now sitting around -170. I love Clark in this match up. She is coming back after a year layoff so that isn't ideal, but I think she picks up right where she left off. She is a very solid striker with good power. She will look to put her opponents away and fights with intent. She can also grapple her opponents and work the fight to the ground when she needs to. Edwards likes to fight at range and control her opponents with a barge of kicks. Her weakness is when she lets her opponent inside the pocket, which I think Clark will be aware of. I'm not ready to lay -170 on a ML, but I will see if I can find another way to back Clark in this match up. 

Dawson vs Glenn 

Lopsided match up according to the odds, and I think its just that. Dawson coming off a TKO finish with 1 second left in his last fight. The clear cut favorite will look to keep his UFC unbeaten streak alive. Dawson has a great ground game and is a fantastic wrestler. He averages just over 4 take downs per fight, and I think that continues here. His style is relentless, and I think that will be on full display here. Glenn won his last fight earlier this year after a 3 year layoff, and it was a quick fight. Glenn has legit power, and is dangerous early in fights, and I think Dawson will be aware of that. I think Glenn's forward pressing style will play right into Dawson's game plan, which will be to get this fight to the ground. Can't seem to find any value in this fight. 

Costa vs Vettori 

Main event. I have no idea what to expect here. Marvin should grapple, and wrestle. But he has shown in his previous fight's, he is willing to stand and strike, even though he is at a disadvantage, and that could be a mistake against Costa. Marvin is a capable striker, with a great chin, but if he plays with fire against Costa for too long, he could find himself in a world of trouble. I lean Marvin, knowing he has more path's to a victory, and I assume he comes prepared. With all the weight uncertainty I will sit this out and just enjoy hopefully a great fight. 

All fighter's made weight  

Good luck this weekend paletta!

Costa is ridiculous...that dude knew a month ago he wasn't making weight lol

@The_Fist

I hope Marvin KOs him.  

GL this weekend 

Prelims, 

Molina/Lacerda fight to go distance (NO) +100 - 1 unit to win 1 unit 

Worthy/Herbert over 1.5 rounds -120 - 1 unit to win 0.83 units 

Pickett ML +200 - 0.5 units to win 1 unit 

Ricci wins inside distance +137 - 1 unit to win 1.37 units 

Main Card, 

Negumereanu/Villanueva over 1.5 rounds -138 - 1.5 units to win 1.09 units 

Parlay, 

Ricci ML/Trinaldo ML/Clark ML/ Dawson ML +333 - 1 unit to win 3.33 units