Posted:
#1
Early UFC card overseas today and I won't be around for most of the
fights. Not much time, so here is some quick half-baked analysis on my
bets. Breese is the hometown boy who has a huge size and power
advantage. He's the biggest favorite on the card for a reason. As long
as he avoids a crazy sub form Nakamura, he should take care of business
within the first round or two. The most likely scenario is Breese by
TKO/KO, so that will be my biggest bet. If Nakamura were to somehow pull
off the upset, it's like because he caught Breese being careless and
locked in a sub. Regardless, I don't think the fight goes the distance,
so that will be a popular parlay leg of mine. Some books may not offer
that option, but 5Dimes does. I think Allen takes care of Meza in a
clear cut, unanimous decision, if it goes that far. And finally,
Rivera/Pickett should turn into a slugfest, even though Picket could
have an advantage if he tried to take the fight to the ground. He won't
though. He's going to start trading punches with a guy that stood there
in a war with Lineker. I don't think Pickett can knock Rivera out. As I
mentioned above, I don't think he takes him down either. So that means
the only way I see Rivera losing is by some sort of controversial split
decision or something like that. Pickett is another hometown boy after
all. So I'll be utilizing the 5Dimes option of my bet being cancelled
if the fight hits the scorecards. The rest of the fights involve unknown
guys or matchups that are too questionable for me to confidently post a
bet on. I've included my general thoughts below on each fight in case
there are some action junkies out there who want some opinions on the
other fights. Good luck on your plays!
UFC Fight Night 84
10 Unit Play
T. Breese TKO/KO (-190)
5 Unit Play
A. Allen + T. Breese/K. Nakamura Under 3 Rounds (-165)
3 Unit Play
F. Rivera (Scorecards = No Action) + T. Breese/K. Nakamura Under 3 Rounds (-130)
General Fight Thoughts/Predictions (Not Bets)
A. Silva TKO/KO (Small play on Silva ITD at -120 might be worth a look, but too many unknowns)
Mousasi Dec (Should be a pretty close fight, with a good chance it goes to decision)
Breese TKO/KO (Breese should overwhelm Nakamura as long as he avoids a crazy sub)
Rivera TKO/KO (Picket will get sucked into a brawl with a guy who traded shots w/ Lineker)
Amirkhani Sub (Good subs if it this hits the ground)
Grant Sub (Slick subs and good on the ground)
Askham Dec (Almost made a bet on Askham, but I got nervous. Still probably wins)
Allen Dec (Better mostly everywhere and Meza doesn't scare me)
Jotko Dec (Close fight, probably goes to the judges, but better off passing)
Parke Dec (I think this fight goes to a decision either way, but maybe Parke steals it)
Danho TKO/KO (Nice size advantage here and I think he can put Omielanczuk away early)
Packalen Dec (Don't know much about these fighters, so pass)
Teymur Dec (Don't know much about these fighters, so pass)
2016 Record: 20-15 (+21.25 units)
*All plays are made on a scale of 1-10 units
UFC Fight Night 84
10 Unit Play
T. Breese TKO/KO (-190)
5 Unit Play
A. Allen + T. Breese/K. Nakamura Under 3 Rounds (-165)
3 Unit Play
F. Rivera (Scorecards = No Action) + T. Breese/K. Nakamura Under 3 Rounds (-130)
General Fight Thoughts/Predictions (Not Bets)
A. Silva TKO/KO (Small play on Silva ITD at -120 might be worth a look, but too many unknowns)
Mousasi Dec (Should be a pretty close fight, with a good chance it goes to decision)
Breese TKO/KO (Breese should overwhelm Nakamura as long as he avoids a crazy sub)
Rivera TKO/KO (Picket will get sucked into a brawl with a guy who traded shots w/ Lineker)
Amirkhani Sub (Good subs if it this hits the ground)
Grant Sub (Slick subs and good on the ground)
Askham Dec (Almost made a bet on Askham, but I got nervous. Still probably wins)
Allen Dec (Better mostly everywhere and Meza doesn't scare me)
Jotko Dec (Close fight, probably goes to the judges, but better off passing)
Parke Dec (I think this fight goes to a decision either way, but maybe Parke steals it)
Danho TKO/KO (Nice size advantage here and I think he can put Omielanczuk away early)
Packalen Dec (Don't know much about these fighters, so pass)
Teymur Dec (Don't know much about these fighters, so pass)
2016 Record: 20-15 (+21.25 units)
*All plays are made on a scale of 1-10 units
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