Posted:
#1
Another rare Sunday UFC event later this afternoon taking place on Fox
Sports 1. A lot of the fights have changed due to injury/illness/etc.,
so there are several short notice replacements. This is probably one of
the worse set of prelims I've seen on a UFC card in quite some time.
Mother of God. You WILL be disappointed if you watch. However, there are
a few fighters worth betting on in the first 7 fights. The majority of
my bets will come from the main card however. Here's a quick rundown of
who I'm on and why:
Cerrone/Oliverira: Cowboy vs. Cowboy. There are lots of puns and lame jokes I'd love to utilize here but I'll save you all of that nonsense. Oliveira takes this fight on short notice but that's nothing new to him, so I don't see that being much of a factor. Cerrone is coming off a quick TKO loss to Dos Anjos not too long ago, and he's moving up a weight class for this fight as well. You have to question Cerrone's motivation/mindset here. He put together such a long winning streak to get that title shot, and it was over in less than a minute. Pretty hard to just turn around a month later and have that same fire. He's also not having to do his normal weight cut for this fight, so again, the motivation to train and diet properly leading up to this fight is a bit of a concern. He will also be at a reach disadvantage for a change, which he normally doesn't have to deal with. All that being said, the types of fighters that have given Cerrone the most trouble in the past, are the ones that close the distance and apply pressure right into the face of Cerrone. Oliveira, to me, just isn't that type of aggressive guy. I think his reach may cause Cerrone to have his notoriously slow start in the 1st round or so, but once Cerrone gets a feel for that length and gets into a little bit of a rhythm, I think he will start to pick Oliveira apart a bit on the feet. Cerrone is the much more technical and diverse striker, and I'd say Cerrone has the edge if this fight goes to the mat as well (though I'm not sure it will). In conclusion, I'm concerned about Cerrone's drive and desire here, with the short turnaround, a different weight class, and a title shot in his rearview mirror. I would not be shocked if we see a worse version of Donald here. However, I just don't think Oliveira is the fighter to exploit any of these weaknesses if they are present, and I like getting Cerrone at -275. I think we have a competitive fight on the feet early, until Cerrone starts to find his range in the 2nd and maybe 3rd round. I think he eventually catches Oliverira with a head kick that wobbles him, knocks him down, and Cerrone locks up a rear-naked choke. My prediction is Cerrone by Sub in Round 3.
Brunson/Carneiro: Brunson comes into this fight as the largest favorite on the card. I'm not sure I would necessarily deem him over a 4:1 favorite here, but I obviously see the advantages he holds here. He has the better standup and also has the defensive wrestling to try to keep this on the feet. He could choose to take Carneiro down and grind him out, but he will want to be cautious of Carneiro's ground game here. Brunson does have a tendency to leave his chin out there to be hit, but I don't see Carneiro as the fighter to exploit this. I think Brunson will pay for this poor technique as he faces higher level fighters, but I think he should be OK in this matchup. I see Brunson attempting to keep the fight standing for a while, perhaps working up against the fence in the clinch with some heavy knees, and maybe even trying to take Carneiro down and wear him out. I think Brunson has the chance to clip Carneiro on the feet at some point, but it's also likely that we just see Brunson grind out a dominant decision victory. My prediction is Brunson by unanimous decision, with the slight possibility of a KO.
Garbrandt/Mendes: Oh how I wish Lineker was still fighting Cody on this card. What a fun war that would have been for however long it lasted. Instead we get a short notice replacement in Mendes. Cody has a significant advantage on the feet here and as long as he doesn't get sucked into Mendes' world on the ground, I think this ends in an early finish for Garbrandt. Cody is a great prospect and has a great killer instinct. I think his abilities on the ground will be sufficient enough to ward off any submission attempts from Mendes here. This is my favorite pick on the card and I predict that Garbrandt will get the finish at some point. My official prediction is Garbrandt by TKO/KO in Round 1/2.
Bermudez/Kawajiri: Bermudez is coming off a brutal TKO loss to Jeremy Stephens in his last fight, in which Bermudez was on the way to winning a decision. A flying knee out of nowhere and it was over for Dennis. He has a tendency to get clipped in his fights, but he generally has a pretty quick recovery. Kawajiri is older than Bermudez here and Dennis should have decisive advantages across the board in pace, quickness, and cardio. I think this fight will likely be competitive early on, but the pace that Bermudez puts on Kawajiri will begin to wear him down, and eventually allow Dennis to snag a late finish or a unanimous decision. My prediction is Bermudez by unanimous decision.
Sarafian/Bamgbose: Not much to analyze here. Bamgbose is a phsycial freak with zero skills off his back. I personally think Bamgbose goes out there and knocks Sarafian into next Wednesday. However, if he isn't able to do so, Sarafian probably takes Bamgbose down and submits him. Either way, I think we see a finish here, so I'm going to utilize this fight "Not Going 3 Rounds" as a parlay leg option. 5Dimes offers this type of prop, so if you're unable to utilize that, you may want to skip this fight altogether.
Webb/Coy: Again, not too much to say here. Webb and Coy are pretty similar fighters with comparable skill sets. I just think Webb is the younger, better athlete here, and I think that will be enough to get him the win. My prediction is Webb by unanimous decision.
Murphy/Faszholz: It's a chick fight. Beware. My prediction is Murphy by unanimous decision.
Reneau/Smith: Another chick fight. Beware once more! My prediction is Reneau by submission in Round 2.
Cerrone/Oliverira: Cowboy vs. Cowboy. There are lots of puns and lame jokes I'd love to utilize here but I'll save you all of that nonsense. Oliveira takes this fight on short notice but that's nothing new to him, so I don't see that being much of a factor. Cerrone is coming off a quick TKO loss to Dos Anjos not too long ago, and he's moving up a weight class for this fight as well. You have to question Cerrone's motivation/mindset here. He put together such a long winning streak to get that title shot, and it was over in less than a minute. Pretty hard to just turn around a month later and have that same fire. He's also not having to do his normal weight cut for this fight, so again, the motivation to train and diet properly leading up to this fight is a bit of a concern. He will also be at a reach disadvantage for a change, which he normally doesn't have to deal with. All that being said, the types of fighters that have given Cerrone the most trouble in the past, are the ones that close the distance and apply pressure right into the face of Cerrone. Oliveira, to me, just isn't that type of aggressive guy. I think his reach may cause Cerrone to have his notoriously slow start in the 1st round or so, but once Cerrone gets a feel for that length and gets into a little bit of a rhythm, I think he will start to pick Oliveira apart a bit on the feet. Cerrone is the much more technical and diverse striker, and I'd say Cerrone has the edge if this fight goes to the mat as well (though I'm not sure it will). In conclusion, I'm concerned about Cerrone's drive and desire here, with the short turnaround, a different weight class, and a title shot in his rearview mirror. I would not be shocked if we see a worse version of Donald here. However, I just don't think Oliveira is the fighter to exploit any of these weaknesses if they are present, and I like getting Cerrone at -275. I think we have a competitive fight on the feet early, until Cerrone starts to find his range in the 2nd and maybe 3rd round. I think he eventually catches Oliverira with a head kick that wobbles him, knocks him down, and Cerrone locks up a rear-naked choke. My prediction is Cerrone by Sub in Round 3.
Brunson/Carneiro: Brunson comes into this fight as the largest favorite on the card. I'm not sure I would necessarily deem him over a 4:1 favorite here, but I obviously see the advantages he holds here. He has the better standup and also has the defensive wrestling to try to keep this on the feet. He could choose to take Carneiro down and grind him out, but he will want to be cautious of Carneiro's ground game here. Brunson does have a tendency to leave his chin out there to be hit, but I don't see Carneiro as the fighter to exploit this. I think Brunson will pay for this poor technique as he faces higher level fighters, but I think he should be OK in this matchup. I see Brunson attempting to keep the fight standing for a while, perhaps working up against the fence in the clinch with some heavy knees, and maybe even trying to take Carneiro down and wear him out. I think Brunson has the chance to clip Carneiro on the feet at some point, but it's also likely that we just see Brunson grind out a dominant decision victory. My prediction is Brunson by unanimous decision, with the slight possibility of a KO.
Garbrandt/Mendes: Oh how I wish Lineker was still fighting Cody on this card. What a fun war that would have been for however long it lasted. Instead we get a short notice replacement in Mendes. Cody has a significant advantage on the feet here and as long as he doesn't get sucked into Mendes' world on the ground, I think this ends in an early finish for Garbrandt. Cody is a great prospect and has a great killer instinct. I think his abilities on the ground will be sufficient enough to ward off any submission attempts from Mendes here. This is my favorite pick on the card and I predict that Garbrandt will get the finish at some point. My official prediction is Garbrandt by TKO/KO in Round 1/2.
Bermudez/Kawajiri: Bermudez is coming off a brutal TKO loss to Jeremy Stephens in his last fight, in which Bermudez was on the way to winning a decision. A flying knee out of nowhere and it was over for Dennis. He has a tendency to get clipped in his fights, but he generally has a pretty quick recovery. Kawajiri is older than Bermudez here and Dennis should have decisive advantages across the board in pace, quickness, and cardio. I think this fight will likely be competitive early on, but the pace that Bermudez puts on Kawajiri will begin to wear him down, and eventually allow Dennis to snag a late finish or a unanimous decision. My prediction is Bermudez by unanimous decision.
Sarafian/Bamgbose: Not much to analyze here. Bamgbose is a phsycial freak with zero skills off his back. I personally think Bamgbose goes out there and knocks Sarafian into next Wednesday. However, if he isn't able to do so, Sarafian probably takes Bamgbose down and submits him. Either way, I think we see a finish here, so I'm going to utilize this fight "Not Going 3 Rounds" as a parlay leg option. 5Dimes offers this type of prop, so if you're unable to utilize that, you may want to skip this fight altogether.
Webb/Coy: Again, not too much to say here. Webb and Coy are pretty similar fighters with comparable skill sets. I just think Webb is the younger, better athlete here, and I think that will be enough to get him the win. My prediction is Webb by unanimous decision.
Murphy/Faszholz: It's a chick fight. Beware. My prediction is Murphy by unanimous decision.
Reneau/Smith: Another chick fight. Beware once more! My prediction is Reneau by submission in Round 2.
I have Evans-Smith in my wheel, I thought maybe she won but not no 30-27.
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