UFC Fight Night 80 Money Makers

Tonight kicks off the 1st of 3 consecutive UFC events in Las Vegas, with UFC 194 on Saturday. I honestly haven't been this excited for a UFC PPV in my entire life. The card is most likely the BEST card from top to bottom that I have ever seen. And no major injuries to any of the main fighters, which always seems to be the case (knock on wood). I'll get to those fights in a few days. Tonight, we start things off with UFC Fight Night 80. The main event is headlined by 2 girls and neither of them are Ronda Rousey. The UFC is hyping the hell out of VanZant and it's mostly because of her looks. She has potential to be a solid fighter one day but she is so inexperienced and not very technical at the moment. I'm going to be making a small play on Namajunas for some extra action but I don't recommend playing either fighter to be honest. If anything, I think it's likely that Namajunas catches PVZ in a sub when Paige leaves an opening, or Paige's pace and cardio take over in the later rounds and PVZ gets the finish at that point. I'll make a play on the fight not lasting 5 full rounds.

Sage Northcutt is another UFC hype-train that is probably getting more attention than he should at the moment. Again, it's mostly because he's only 19 and looks like an Abercrombie model. He made quick work of Trevino in his UFC debut but Trevino sucks. So we don't really know much about how Northcutt's chin, cardio, etc. are. Pfister is probably not skilled enough to really give us much more of an indication in this fight either. Pfister is the toughest guy Northcutt's ever faced and he is durable, but not very skilled anywhere. I don't think Nortchutt deserves such steep odds at this point, but there's definitely no way I can make the case for taking a shot on Pfister. I'll probably use Northcutt in a parlay or two, but definitely won't be depending on him across the board.

There are a lot of other fighters I'm betting on tonight but I don't have much more time to get into each one in-depth. In short, I think Tim Means will destroy Howard and likely get a finish. Sterling gets a stiff test in Eduardo, who has a puncher's chance, but I expect Sterling to get him to the ground and submit him in the 2nd or 3rd round. Sterling just needs to make sure he doesn't stand with Eduardo too long, because I think he is definitely at a disadvantage if they keep the fight standing. Tukhugov has a good style matchup and I think he knocks out Nover. Curran is another chick fighter, so you don't want to rely on someone like her too heavily, but Kagan sucks and Curran should have the better pace and cardio to take a clear decision.

UFC Fight Night 80

10 Unit Play
A. Sterling + T. Means + S. Northcutt (-165)

5 Unit Plays
Z. Tukhugov + A. Sterling + S. Nortchutt (-130)
K. Curran + T. Means (-160)

3 Unit Plays
S. Ponzinibbio + A. Sterling (-120)
A. Sterling + E. Theodorou (-130)
R. Namajunas/P. VanZant Under 5 Rounds (-145)



2015 Record: 7-16 (-54 units)

*All plays are made on a scale of 1-10 units

just my 2 cents Throwing a -1000 into a parlay is never a good idea. Realistically, how much is it really changing the odds on your bet? maybe making a few extra bucks because of it (literally) .. but i dont even think its worth the risk for that messily few points of less juice.

Anyways best of luck, i'm going easy on this card, waiting for the weekend
small plays on Miller , and Northcutt/Pfister under 1.5

I can understand your point, but I don't think you know all of the facts in this particular situation. First off, Nortchutt is -900 on 5Dimes, so slightly less than the -1000 example you used. I debated whether to use Northcutt in a few plays and I weighed the options. Had I taken out Northcutt in my 10 unit parlay, the odds go from -165 to -210. Had I taken out Northcutt in my 5 unit parlay, the odds go from -130 to -200. That's quite a bit more of a difference than "saving a few bucks." Sure, those 2 plays become a bit riskier because I need a 3rd leg to hit in order to cash. But if one of the other fighters in the parlay lose, I don't lose a ton of extra juice there.

Personally, I think Northcutt wins tonight, even if I don't necessarily believe all of the hype quite yet. As always, there are several ways to bet these fights. I could have easily dropped Northcutt from my card and just had my 10 unit play be -210 and my 5 unit play be -200. I chose not to do that. Plus, I only used Northcutt in 2 of my 6 plays. I think either option will end up winning anyways, so it's probably a moot point. Good luck on your plays this weekend

P.S. - I will admit that I made a mistake by adding Rousey into basically every parlay last month. That was a perfect example of where the risk wasn't worth the reward. But the line kept dropping and dropping and I thought it was still too good to pass up. I learned a hard lesson there. But then again, I didn't think Holm was well-versed enough in MMA yet to even have a chance at knocking out Rousey. She made me and a lot of other people eat crow on that one!

UFC Fight Night 80

10 Unit Play
A. Sterling + T. Means + S. Northcutt (-165)

5 Unit Plays
Z. Tukhugov + A. Sterling + S. Nortchutt (-130)
K. Curran + T. Means (-160)

3 Unit Plays
S. Ponzinibbio + A. Sterling (-120)
A. Sterling + E. Theodorou (-130)
R. Namajunas/P. VanZant Under 5 Rounds (-145)



Overall Tonight: 5-1 (+22.1 units)

2015 Record: 12-17 (-31.9 units)

*All plays are made on a scale of 1-10 units


That was much more like the type of outcomes I'm accustomed to. It sucks that I got off to such a rocky start on here, but hopefully I can make up for it and redeem myself in the long run. It's nice to get this 3-night extravaganza started off on the right foot and take some momentum into the weekend. Good luck on your plays this weekend everyone. See ya tomorrow!

Solid Card!  BOL on the rest of the weekend.  Will be curious to see who all you're going with.

nice night J$

Nice night!!!!