UFC Fight Night 78 Money Makers

Still trying to get last weekend's Ronda Rousey KO loss out of my head. Can't believe she lost. Some of the worst gameplanning and mid-round coaching I've seen in a while from a champion. Not only was Rousey humbled, but so was I in the way that I bet her. I was so confident, I didn't hedge at all or bother to worry about the huge line movement leading up to the fight. Lesson learned. I was going to have one of the most profitable days I had ever had and then it was all over in an instant. Moving on from that, just wanted to rant one more time lol. And one more thing, to the guys that were kind enough to drop in and wish me luck last time, I appreciate it. Naturally after having one of the worst nights I've had and lost a lot of money, the last thing I needed was a couple of trolls coming out of the woodwork with the and   icons lol. I'll never understand why people enjoy seeing other people lose money when I thought the purpose of forums like this were to generate good discussion and help each other out. After all, aren't we all here to win money and beat the books together? Anyways, I'm intelligent enough to know that there are always going to be those types of people that find joy when other people lose. You just have to have tough skin and ignore it. Moving on!

Tonight's UFC card is a joke compared to the fights that were on the PPV last week. The last 3 fights on the card are probably the safest ones to bet, while the rest of the card is literally a crap shoot. I'm not even going to pretend to act like I've heard of some of these guys. The UFC is trying really hard to build up some hype in the Mexico area and this another one of their attempts to gain some more fans with that demographic. Lots of pickem fights that I'm going to simply pass on since I have no clue. I'll stick with what I know.

I think Cejudo is probably the safest bet on the board tonight. If he wins this, he is likely in line for a title shot with Mighty Mouse, so I expect him to take care of business. Formiga is a good fighter but this is just an awful style matchup for him. Cejudo's superior wrestling and the pace that he pushes, will be too much. I expect this to be a very clear, unanimous 30-27 decision. Formiga's only chance it to maybe catch Cejudo's back in a scramble and lock up a submission, but I don't see it happening.

I also like Lamas against Sanchez, but my God, this fight scares the crap out of me. Sanchez has done this to me so many times. Loses a clear decision but somehow the judges give it to him. Sanchez is notorious for losing rounds and then going all out in the final 10 seconds to make it appear like he did more in that round than he actually accomplished. And somehow the judges seem to buy it. Time and time again. His last fight against Pearson (I bet on Pearson) was one of the biggest robbery decisions I have ever witnessed. I typed something similar to this prior to that fight and still bet it anyways. And my worst fear still came true lol. So here I am, in the same position, knowing that Lamas is likely better than Sanchez everywhere, but I just don't know if I trust the judges in Mexico. I also heard reports today that Sanchez is back up to 171 pounds after his cut down to 145 yesterday. Yes, that's right. He somehow put on 26 pounds in about 24 hours. No idea how that is possible but it appears to be true. One of the reasons I liked Lamas so much is because Sanchez was dropping all the way down to 145 and I felt that would affect his chin and durability. Not sure what to think now. The line has dropped from -700 down to -450 over the past few weeks. I'm still going to play Lamas but I am proceeding with caution. 5Dimes offers a prop where if the fight goes to the scorecards, the bet is a push. I don't use that option often, but I feel like this might be the perfect scenario for it at -360. I could also throw a little something on Sanchez by Decision at +725 or Sanchez by KO/TKO at +950. Something to think about.

Finally, I like Gastelum over Magny tonight. My biggest concern was Gastelum's weight cut and it didn't appear to be an issue this time. If he takes his diet seriously, he is a force to be reckoned with. It appears he has himself in order for this fight and I think this is a good matchup for him. Magny is always a tough out but I don't necessarily buy in to his record. He has fought a lot of mediocre to below-average fighters. I don't think he will be able to use his range that well in this fight as I see Gastelum getting inside and hitting him, potentially clinching him up against the fence and taking him down. We saw Magny look like a fish out of water against Maia once it hit the floor and while Gastelum is no Maia on the mat, he can still hold his own and has good top control. The biggest question is probably what happens if this fight goes into the 4th and 5th rounds. Will Gastelum gas out? I feel confident that Gastelum is either going to have finished Magny by then, or he is going to be up 3 rounds to 0 and Magny is going to need a finish. Gastelum is a pressure fighter and I don't think Magny is going to be able to keep him at range when Gastelum charges forward. Props to Magny for taking another fight on short notice and he's certainly proved me wrong before, but I think Gastelum has the potential to be a stud for a long time in this division and Magny isn't on his level.

Again, my unit scale for my best are 1-10. I'm obviously in the hole from my 1st event, but I will not be chasing. There are UFC events every weekend pretty much from now until 2016. I'm going to bide my time and try to dig myself out of this hole slowly. Good luck on your plays tonight!


10 Unit Play
H. Cejudo + K. Gastelum (-185)

5 Unit Play
H. Cejudo + R. Lamas + K. Gastelum (-110)

3 Unit Play
H. Cejudo + A. Fili (-130)

1 Unit Plays
H. Cejudo + E. Marin (-120)
B. Fabinski + K. Gastleum (-110)
H. Cejudo + K. Gastelum/N. Magny Under 5 Rounds (-110)
H. Cejudo/J. Formiga Over 3 Rounds + K. Gastelum (-115)


2015 Record: 0-8 (-39.45 units)

good luck Money!!!!!!!!!

All parlays again and one fighter in almost every bet! Man you like living dangerously, lol.

Dont sleep on Magny...The guy improves more and more every fight and is alot better than the odds suggest. IMO he is more well rounded than Gastelum aside from his wrestling..

looking good so far, J-money, take it to the house

This card is not the best card for betting in my opinion. You have a lot of fights that are pickems and low odds, sure, but there's reason for that. A lot of these guys are unknowns, guys from Latin TUF, guys I've never heard of, let alone trust. I'm not making my wagers just to have some action, I am betting on what I'm most confident in. Cejudo is the safest bet on the card in my honest opinion. Sure, I'd love to have more of my bets be straight up bets or have some of my parlays be spread around better, but I didn't see a more efficient way to do that on this card. Every card is unique and I approach each one differently, based on what angles I see. I could have played someone like Fili straight up at -220 or I could parlay him with Cejudo and lower the juice. I chose to lower the juice because I'm much more confident that Cejudo wins than I am of laying -220 on Fili. Anything can happen, it's MMA. I found that out the hard way last weekend with Rousey. But I have found that my approach works best for me over the long run. I wouldn't still be gambling or decided to start posting in this forum if I haven't been successful.

My plays are typically a lot easier for a reader on here to tag along and follow if they wanted to as well. Whereas your strategy would be insanely difficult for someone on here to tail. You play a ton of props, play both sides of a fight, and spread your investment out over 20+ plays to try to limit your risk. I have no problem with that strategy, but it seems like a majority of your plays would be difficult for a reader on here to follow along with. My goal is to post my plays, as well as try to identify which fighters I like or whether or not I think a fight is likely to go the distance or not. At least with that information, people can maybe use it to help them come to their own conclusion on the fights and figure out how they want to bet them. Hopefully I don't pay for it again tonight with Cejudo like I did last weekend with Rousey, but I'm confident Cejudo fights smart and gets the W. Good luck on your plays, although I really don't want to see Diego get away with another robbery. If he wins, I sure hope it's just a legit KO or something. I don't think I can take another judging screwjob lol

Definitely not sleeping on Magny. In fact, I like Magny as a fighter and I think he has done a great job of staying fit enough to fight on short notice so often, as well as beating the opponents put in front of him. I just don't think he's really been test yet. And the one semi-test he had with an aging Maia, he failed miserably. Gastelum is not without his flaws either, but I think the ceiling is much higher for Gastelum and as long as his weight is on point, he's going to be tough to beat. We'll certainly find out tonight, but i think Gastelum finishes him at some point. I don't think Magny does well when his opponent pressures him in his face and closes the distance like Gastelum likely will. Good luck with whatever you decide to do.

thanks man! Unfortunately, I won't be able to relax much until the night is basically over, so I've still got a little more waiting to go lol. Hoping things end on a positive note tonight instead of how last weekend went. Still have nightmares

10 Unit Play
H. Cejudo + K. Gastelum (-185)

5 Unit Play
H. Cejudo + R. Lamas + K. Gastelum (-110)

3 Unit Play
H. Cejudo + A. Fili (-130)

1 Unit Plays
H. Cejudo + E. Marin (-120)
B. Fabinski + K. Gastleum (-110)
H. Cejudo + K. Gastelum/N. Magny Under 5 Rounds (-110)
H. Cejudo/J. Formiga Over 3 Rounds + K. Gastelum (-115)


Overall Tonight: 1-6 (-25.55 units)

2015 Record: 1-14 (-65 units)


Well, just like last week when I was super confident in Mark Hunt winning, I was correct again this week with Cejudo. Unfortunately for the 2nd week in a row, the other person I trusted let me down immensely and ruined the party. I have to give some respect to Magny, he looked much improved from his last fight. I am a bit disappointed in the decision though. Putting bias aside, I don't know how a single judge didn't give Gastelum a 10-8 round in the 4th. Gastelum should have finished Magny off but instead allowed him too much time to recover. The fight likely came down to the 3rd round, in which I thought Gastelum slightly edged it out. It was close though. I at least thought it would be a draw at worst. What do you have to do to get a 10-8 round these days? I also never seem to be on the right side of a major decision when I need it. Thought I squeaked it out but it's another devastating Saturday night for the 2nd weekend in a row. Instead of a 5-2 night, it ends up 1-6. Boy, I really picked the worst time to start posting on here lol. Probably is always the case with the "new guy." Congrats to the Magny backers

Keep at it, the decisions will come Jmoney!

thanks man. Still pretty embarrassing to start out posting a 1-14 record. Hard to be taken too seriously with a record like that lol. It's never fun to put together a long write-up and all of it means nothing when you don't profit. Back at it again next weekend.

Who gives a shyt how you bet, it's your money!!!!!!!!!! There isn't no gambling gods in here. I understand your strategy, I just wouldn't wheel 2 guys that i'm not sure of. Anyways hang tough and keep posting because I seem to have 2 out of every 3 guys in your parlays, lol.