UFC fight night 4/16

These are my predictions for each fight.  I usually end up making a play on every match, but i'll note which plays i recommend or feel strongly about.

Alateng vs. Croom-  Alateng has the more impressive resume and Croom has the height and reach advantage.  Alateng is a pretty technical striker and Croom is pretty much a wildman throwing awkward strikes.  Alateng is a really solid wrestler and i think the second he feels the fight going sideways he will go to that to neutralize Croom's attack.  I like Alateng (-170) by decision. Just see this ending up on the ground in rounds 2-3 with Alateng controlling the action.  Croom has some subs on his resume, but they've come after he's had his opponent hurt, not while defending from bottom.

Hughes vs. Nunes - Hughes is 0-3 in the UFC and hasn't been very impressive to boot.  This may be her final hurrah with the company if she doesn't come out with a win.  Istela Nunes is a talented striker who is 0-1 in the UFC defeated by Ariane Carnelossi whom has a similar style to Sam Hughes.  My issue with Hughes is that she is someone who seems afraid of pulling the trigger on her gameplan and ends up a standing target for her opponent. The price is rising on Nunes and for good reason since i think this is her fight for the taking as whether it's with the striking or grappling i don't see her losing in either area. gimme Nunes (-230) by decision 

Ogden vs. Leavitt - Both men are solid grapplers, but Ogden is clearly better on the feet and even though Ogden has many Sub victories to his resume, most of those started by knocking his opponent down with his striking skills.  It's Ogden's 1st fight in the UFC so he's a bit of an unknown to the casual fan.  Leavitt is 2-1 in UFC, but both his wins came against weak opponents and his loss came against Claudio Puelles whom just flat out-wrestled him.  Ogden is the better all-around fighter, but Leavitt is dangerous on the ground, so Ogden can't get lazy if the fight ends up there.  I've got Ogden (-138) by stoppage

GL this weekend 

Barnett vs. Buday - Heavyweight action,  Barnett is a fan favorite after his last win vs. a retiring Gian villante.  Buday is entering his 1st fight in UFC since winning his DWCS debut by 1st round KO.  Barnett is 5' 9" and comes in at the HW limit of 265 lbs.  He carries tremendous weight for a fighter his height and he also throws lots of flashy roundhouse kicks and strikes that take a great deal of energy.  Buday comes in at the same weight but stands at 6'4" and employs a bit of a mauling style.  He likes to push his opponent up against the cage and lay on them to tire them out and then go after subs or rain down strikes.  This is a bit of an easy decision for me, i like Buday (-240) by 3rd rd KO/TKO as long as he doesn't get caught by some extravagent roundhouse, i think this is a case of the bigger guy weighing down the smaller guy until he gasses and can't defend himself

Garcia vs. Ronson-  I have no feel for this fight at all and don't know what to expect and will be likely making something to eat while this takes place.  It's a pick em fight and gun to my head i'd go Rafa Garcia strictly because Ronson is coming down in weight and hasn't fought in a while after being popped for roids.

Klose vs. Jenkins - Jenkins is a guy who will throw crazy strikes, but tire himself out and can get out-wrestled easily.  Klose has some really nice wins on his resume and even his loss against Beniel Dariush (who is a legit title contender) came after he had Dariush rocked, but rushed in and got caught with a punch to seal his fate.  Jenkins is an unpredictable fighter, but Klose is much more well rounded and it's likely Klose smothers him and beats him down in the 2nd half of the fight.  He hasn't fought in 2 years, but this feels like a gimme fight for Klose (-720) by Ko/TKO in 2nd round

Lansberg vs. Kianzad - i think Kianzad by decision but at (-420) i can't lay those odds on her and i don't feel strongly enough to bet her by decision (-160) either as i think it will a competitive fight.  This is likely another fight i won't make any kind of play on.

Clark vs. Knight - Both of these fighters are/were Light HW's, but this fight is taking place at HW.  Knight weighed in at 251 lbs, Clark is 223 lbs so it's a major difference in weight.  Clark reminds me of Sam Hughes, a fighter who tends to became a spectator in their own fight.  At even weight, i would expect Knight to stalk Clark down and get a TKO.  However, Knight's biggest weakness has been his gas tank and now he's at 251 and is carrying more muscle than ever and i'm afraid he will tire out even quicker.  I thought the odds were backwards when i first saw the matchup, but now i kind of get it.  I like Clark (-170) by decision just due to the fact i think Knight gasses out after 1 round.  Still not a strong play at all

Lazzez vs. Loosa - Loosa comes in as a late replacement against a pretty solid opponent in Lazzez.  Loosa just had a fight a week ago, a full 3 rounds with plenty of grappling. If he had a full camp i would probably back Loosa as the underdog.  Another fight i don't care for, but i'll go with Lazzez by decision.

Sabatini vs. Laramie - This one i feel very strongly about.  Sabatini is a very talented wrestler/grappler going against a guy who has zero takedown defense.  I like Sabatini (-500) by 1st round submission.  Sabatini to win by Sub in rounds 1 or 2 (+210) is a play i've already made and will include different Sabatini props in some parlay's

Silva vs. Wu - I think Silva just pressures Wu and earns a unanimous decision or gets a stoppage.  Wu is yet to impress in any of her UFC fights.  Silva by sub (+300) is my play here, and i may include the sub/dec double chance in parlays.

Fialho vs. Baeza - I feel like this is a bit of toss-up, Fialho is tough as nails and doesn't stop coming forward.  Baeza is the more technical striker and better grappler, but is very capable of being caught and dropped with a clean strike.  This could be a firefight for the 1st round until Baeza tries to grapple and win the fight that way, but idk if he will go that route.  Fialho has decent power and will walk through heavy shots, but can be floored like anyone else if he takes enough clean punches. Still, i'm going with the dog Fialho (+154) just think this fight is too close.  Won't be a heavy bet, just for fun

Borralho vs. Omargadzhiev - a bit odd for two fighters coming off DWCS wins to meet each other in their first UFC fight, but whatever.  Borralho is a guy who looks like a much better fighter than he is.  He had a stong reputation as this Brazilian phenom when he first showed up on DWCS, but was very unimpressive. He came back a year later and once again i thought he was lacking even though he won by finish.  He reminds me a bit of Paulo Costa in that there is this aire of arrogance and phoniness to him, any way if you can't tell, i'm not a big fan of Caio Borralho.  Ghadzi is another undefeated Russian wrestler who has made his way to the UFC.  Gadzhi isn't much different than any other Russian fighter in that he wants to take you down and then beat you down into submission.  I like Omargadzhiev (-140) by 2nd round stoppage

Luque vs. Muhammad - These guys fought years ago where Luque Ko'd him in about a minute, but Muhammad is a much better fighter now.  I don't feel strongly either way, but i do think this is a situation where Luque can wear himself out by going too hard at Muhammad in the opening rounds.  Muhammad has solid wins on his resume, but nothing that jumps out during his 6-0-1 run over the last 3 years.  A win over Luque would definitely give him that notoriety he's been clamoring for.  I likely won't play this until it's fight time, but i like Luque to win in round 1 or 2, and/or Muhammad by dec.

I may not include Drakkar Klose in my wagers after seeing him at weigh-in's today, he looked completely drained and like he was about to keel over and pass out from exhaustion due to the weight cut i'm guessing

strong plays - Buday, Alateng, Nunes, Sabatini ,Omarghadzhiez and Silva

likely plays - Ogden, Clark, Lazzez and Fialho

best of luck to everyone

Paletta

i didn't even get a chance to turn it on before i saw Alateng celebrating

@BigMick87

 What happen in that fight??  I just turned it on.

Nunes might get a stop if Hughes keeps leaking blood

GL tonight Mick!

@murbani

 Alateng caught him solid with the a punch to the side of the head, Croom's legs went out

I live bet hughes +350 after that 2nd round.....Nunes lost her energy somehow

Nunes had a giant energy dump midway through that 2nd round....Hughes just had better cardio

It's crazy because word is that the UFC expected Nunes to win her last fight vs. carnelossi, and fed her Hughes (who they were expecting to cut after tonight) as a rebound fight.  Nunes may be cut after tonight now that she is 0-2 in UFC

@The_Fist

now Ogden is fading smh

through 2 rounds and Barnett is tired, but holding up better than i thought

Of course i got Buday by 3rd round stoppage and Mirgliotta calls a blow to the head!!!!!!    guys get hit in the back of the head all the time and the refs let it go...no i got $ riding on it and it gets caledd WWTTFFFFFFFF!!!!!

damn Borralho making me look like a moron

Just an ok night. Nunes crashed my parlays early on, but the live bet on Hughes earned me my $ back and some.

I'm still bitter over the Buday tech decision, Barnett was folding and Buday screwed up.  Still feel like fighters take shots to the back of the head all the time with no stoppage.

Laramie was much stronger than i anticipated so i lost my Sabatini by sub wager

Either Caio is the real deal or Gadzhi is a can crusher.....i'm going with my assessment of Caio being overrated a horrible read by myself.

Alateng was part of my parlay so no win there, but i went on a nice run from Rafa to Fialho (8 in a row)

Going to sleep, but did what i said i would with the main event.....Luque to win in rds. 1 or 2  and Belal ML