Ufc Cerrone vs Cowboy post your thoughts.

1.Will the fight be one sided w/ little danger, evenly matched?

2.Weakness of each fighter

3.Cons of each fighter

4.How will the fighter win?

5.Over/under?

Evenly matched. No advantage. Over 1.5 or full 3 rounds would be okay bet depending on the line. No bet on either.

Conclusion. Both have no method to victory. Murphy may be stronger and can edge a decision GNP. Both will go to the ground. Over 1.5 (90%). or goes the distance (75%)

1. One sided for Hamilton

2. Weakness on Shamil for his complete lack of ground game (7 months ago) , did not lock down a leg to hold in half guard, effortless pass to full guard for his opponent . Lost to +250 odds opponent. Bad takedown defence. Overall lack of knowledge grabbing the fence with no reason, losing a point. Throwing a weak front kick and getting taken down. No game plan. 

 If Hamilton gets taken down in an awkward position he does not explode out or defend so well. 

3. Shamil is a slightly better boxer. decent jab. Solid chin

 Hamilton has a good ground game, solid chin. Excellent at timing takedowns.

4.Hamilton has good wrestling and will hold him down GnP wear him out. Shamil can end the fight by KO on ground not as likely. 

5. Over 1.5, goes to decision, Hamilton (85%)

1.Garcia one sided (65%)

2. Sean Strickland stands very straight up and down from time to time will not move much with back against fence. Boxing is below average. No threat of KO on feet, ground or submission. Will try to run out clock.

Difficult to take down Garcia. 

Garcia has bad cardio from matchup around 6 months ago (because of how much muscle he has). Loads up on punches one or two at a time full strength. No real threat of KO unless he catches two punches flush. 

3. Sean has better cardio. He is good at going for take downs when people throw flurries (Garcia doesnt flurry). Will be about even in stand up. Sean will choose to pick select shots against Garcia and move around the cage. 

Garcia has great takedown technique using his strength as an advantage. Will see a lot of takedowns racking up points. Holds onto positions on the ground. Doesnt stay in the pocket so he doesnt lose points. 

 4. Garcia wins by either KO by catching Stickland in round 1 or early in second. Garcia decision by takedowns and getting more control and damage on the ground and feet. 

1. Marion Reneau (70%) 

2. Weakness of Reneau is she is not as strong physically and as good as Ashlee as a wrestler. 

Ashlee does not respond well when she is in a submission to defend it correctly. There are many different submissions Reneau (brown belt BJJ) can throw her way that Ashlee may not know how to get out of. Ashlee last fight ended in bulldog choke where she didnt defend the wrists or correct position to reduce pressure (the choke was perfectly applied by a stronger opponent). 

Both have somewhat weak chins. Should be more of an issue for Ashlee, Reneau being the much better striking. Ashlee never ended a fight first or second round.

3. Marion has a Brown belt in BJJ. Has shown she can pull off armbars and triangles with good control and pressure. Better striking. Good movement and will attempt to move a lot preventing the clinches. Taken down Ashlee is not a threat and can be submitted in the realm of BJJ. 

Ashlee holds down opponent and wins points, avoid striking.

4. Three outcomes. Marion by submission (armbar) or decision. Ashlee wins if she avoids the striking by holding her down. Over 1.5 or goes the distance. Bet both submission + over (hedge the bet sub or over) or just Marion ML + Sub small bet (optional)

5. Over 1.5 or goes the distance. 

Trevor has subpar boxing. Doesnt check kicks, has an over exaggerated boxing style that is not good for mma. Lack of good movement. Weak chin. KO'ed 4 times, decision lost once, submission loss once. 

Leonardo has no video recording of his wins. He seems like he could be in the low to middle tier of unranked fighters. Has a few armbars and rear naked so he does have a ground game. Has only 2 KO's so his fighting style is more on the ground. 

Would take Leonardo on a small bet if he is an underdog.

Too close to call. 

1.Oluwale (60%) Still a lot of Oluwale game that may not have improved or we even know about.

Close match up, Sarafian has a solid chin. Oluwale not as strong a chin. Oluwale showed decent defence on the ground vs uriah hall, a very tough fight for a first UFC match. 

Oluwale has power and throws fast shot in flurries. Disregards his defence by throwing with 100 percent strength. 

Fight will be a exciting one with two fighters that will look to engage. Fight may go to the ground periodically, but Sarafian is not exceptional on the ground. Oluwale did not scramble to get back to his feet and hopefully he learned from his last fight. 

Joe Riggs has the advantage in this fight if he can take down Chris repeatedly. Not confident placing my bet on either fighter. Depending on the odds it may be a good bet. Over 1.5. 

1.Bermudez (70%)

Few holes in Dennis game. Tatsuya is no technical or aggresive enough to exploit.

3. Tatsuya is jack of all trades. Can wrestle, has multiple submissions he goes to.

Dennis is a better striker, he is not exceptional although he has a good jab and is quick. Will win the wrestling defence and scrambles. 

4. Tatsuya by rear naked. Dennis decision or KO. Dennis will dictate pace, when he wins the wrestling scrambles he can coast to decision.

Lineker vs Garbrandt  

Lineker KO or decision

Thatch wins decision. Siyar shows weakness wrestling and cardio. 

Derek Brunson by decision or KO

Cerrone by decision or KO

garbrandt by decision 60 percent. over 2.5.

 At +300 garbrandt decision is a decent bet. Will look to counter and avoid flurries. When they are both neutral stance garbrandt works well timing his counters. Lineker throws wildly, lots of openings as garbrandt is good counter puncher which gives him confidence trading in the pocket.

Not the most solid bet as Lineker is a threat on the feet. Both have good chins. 

Rated by strength

I think most likely outcome is ITD or no bet.

Bermudez + garcia 

garbrandt over 2.5