Just some thoughts, nothing concrete until fight night
Cosce vs. "Blood Diamond" - real name is Mike something, he didn't do anything memorable in his debut aside from getting beat up and finished in a couple minutes. Orion wasn't impressive in his last fight either almost 1 year to the date of this one, but it felt like ages ago. Orion looked really bad on the feet and tired out after he was the one initiating the clinch for the entire fight before getting finished in Round 2. No Lean - popular sentiment is that this fight sees a finish, but after last week i can't trust that. Don't trust either fighter.
Negumereanu vs. Potieria - Potieria has decent power and a decent reach. He likes to throw these sort of looping hooks. Negumereanu has a solid chin and has a distinct wrestling advantage. Lean - Negumereanu ML
Kim vs. Edwards - Striker vs. striker. Lean - Joselyne Edwards ML - Think her kicks will be the difference, but not a strong lean at all
Morales vs. Fugitt - total mismatch and the odds show it. Morales has real power and Fugitt just isn't on his level. Lean - Morales is the pick, but not sure how i'm going about this, maybe a parlay piece with Morales ITD
Garcia vs. Klose - Good fight, i'm a fan of Rafa and think he will bring the fight to Klose who can be gun shy at times. Lean - Rafa Garcia ML
Mayes vs. Abdelwahab - interesting one. I went back to watch some of Mayes fights and one in particular was Rodrigo Nascimento where Mayes was taken down and beaten on the ground. Abdelwahab is an olympic wrestler who likes to swing a bit to open up takedowns. He isn't looking for subs on the mat, but is happy with the control time. Lean - Abdelwahab ML - I like Abdelwahab but the odds keep swinging to indicate Mayes is getting some love. I also kind of like this to go distance. I don't think Abdelwahab finishes Mayes, just spends the match trying to bring him down and control on top. Abdelwahad seems like he has a real cement-head. I envision this fights sees alot of time up against the cage.
Dober vs. Alves - Dober is the rightful favorite, but i like an angle here. Lean - Alves by sub +1100 - I don't feel as strongly about this as Kevin Holland or Matt Schnell sub plays, but Alves has a really tight guillotine squeeze, he won his DWCS fight by jumping guard into a guillotine. 4 out of 11 Dober losses have come from submission ( 1 from guillotine).
.....imo the last fight was a total fluke, Nunes for whatever reason just started brawling and apparently had a lot of stuff going on outside the cage. Lean - Amanda Nunes ML - likely will be the last leg of whatever parlay i come up with
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