going to have to start doing these 1-by-1 due to COVERS error messages when i hit submit.
Fialho vs. VanCamp - VanCamp just hasn't impressed me on the mid-level cards. His game is look for Td's and then hunt subs which is a style clash with Fialho who is more of a "stand and bang" type. Fialho is a huge step-up in competition for VanCamp. Early Lean on Fialho. He's like a 3-1 fave and for good reason. Might even be safe to bet a finish here,but i don't have those odds yet. Parlay piece as well
Newson vs. Garcia - Speaking of "Stand and Bang", i don't expect this one to go the distance. Early Lean - NOT gtd
Carnelossi vs. Godinez - Both women are strong and solid grapplers. Godinez is -200 which is a little steep to me. Might be a bit of value in Carnelossi
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
going to have to start doing these 1-by-1 due to COVERS error messages when i hit submit.
Fialho vs. VanCamp - VanCamp just hasn't impressed me on the mid-level cards. His game is look for Td's and then hunt subs which is a style clash with Fialho who is more of a "stand and bang" type. Fialho is a huge step-up in competition for VanCamp. Early Lean on Fialho. He's like a 3-1 fave and for good reason. Might even be safe to bet a finish here,but i don't have those odds yet. Parlay piece as well
Newson vs. Garcia - Speaking of "Stand and Bang", i don't expect this one to go the distance. Early Lean - NOT gtd
Carnelossi vs. Godinez - Both women are strong and solid grapplers. Godinez is -200 which is a little steep to me. Might be a bit of value in Carnelossi
Rodriguez vs. Vergara - I really like Kleydson Rodrigues, he is very well rounded and fights hard the entire time, solid gas tank. Vergara looked great on DWCS, but then got beat up by Ode Osbourne in a fight where he also missed weight. Early Lean - Rodrigues by UD
Cortez vs. Gatto - Both women trying to elevate their status in UFC. Good matchmaking here. Both women can grapple, although i give a slight edge to Cortez due to her strength. Both women can strike, although i think Gatto is a bit more technical. Tough fight to call but Cortez always looks bigger than her opponents at fight time and i can see a scenario where she drags Gatto down and wins the control time battle. Gatto has a decent submission game though too so Cortez has to be careful.
Trinaldo vs. Roberts - Trinaldo is 43 years old but still fighting well and has never been KO'd. He has been subbed a few times, but i don't think Danny Roberts wants this fight on the mat. Roberts OTOH has been KO'd 3 times in his career. I expect this to be a striking contest. It's a pick em on the odds...total toss-up imo.
Rodriguez vs. Vergara - I really like Kleydson Rodrigues, he is very well rounded and fights hard the entire time, solid gas tank. Vergara looked great on DWCS, but then got beat up by Ode Osbourne in a fight where he also missed weight. Early Lean - Rodrigues by UD
Cortez vs. Gatto - Both women trying to elevate their status in UFC. Good matchmaking here. Both women can grapple, although i give a slight edge to Cortez due to her strength. Both women can strike, although i think Gatto is a bit more technical. Tough fight to call but Cortez always looks bigger than her opponents at fight time and i can see a scenario where she drags Gatto down and wins the control time battle. Gatto has a decent submission game though too so Cortez has to be careful.
Trinaldo vs. Roberts - Trinaldo is 43 years old but still fighting well and has never been KO'd. He has been subbed a few times, but i don't think Danny Roberts wants this fight on the mat. Roberts OTOH has been KO'd 3 times in his career. I expect this to be a striking contest. It's a pick em on the odds...total toss-up imo.
Ivanov vs. Rogerio de Lima - Ivanov is ridiculously tough, only time he's been finished was when he was subbed by Volkov in Bellator 8 years ago. 22 heavyweight fights and has never KO'd and most of those have been in top tier companies. Ivanov got cracked many times by Derrick Lewis and still kept walking forward...that's insane. De Lima has been subbed several time but never KO'd. I don't think either fighter has to worry about takedowns here, but there could be stretches where both fighters are up against the cage. De Lima likes to utilize leg kicks, but has to be on the lookout for haymakers on the return. Ivanov is a slight favorite. Early Lean - Ivanov by decision...i think Ivanov will get sick of those leg kicks and try to pin De Lima up against the cage to wear down and pound on him.
Royval vs. Schnell - Fireworks!!! always fireworks when Royval is involved. Schnell the more technical striker, Royval uses his length to touch you and look for TD's and then search submissions. Schnell has shown the ability to scramble on the mat and work submission too. Royval being around -250 is too rich considering he gets a bit reckless. Early Lean - Under 2.5 rounds (-130)
Ivanov vs. Rogerio de Lima - Ivanov is ridiculously tough, only time he's been finished was when he was subbed by Volkov in Bellator 8 years ago. 22 heavyweight fights and has never KO'd and most of those have been in top tier companies. Ivanov got cracked many times by Derrick Lewis and still kept walking forward...that's insane. De Lima has been subbed several time but never KO'd. I don't think either fighter has to worry about takedowns here, but there could be stretches where both fighters are up against the cage. De Lima likes to utilize leg kicks, but has to be on the lookout for haymakers on the return. Ivanov is a slight favorite. Early Lean - Ivanov by decision...i think Ivanov will get sick of those leg kicks and try to pin De Lima up against the cage to wear down and pound on him.
Royval vs. Schnell - Fireworks!!! always fireworks when Royval is involved. Schnell the more technical striker, Royval uses his length to touch you and look for TD's and then search submissions. Schnell has shown the ability to scramble on the mat and work submission too. Royval being around -250 is too rich considering he gets a bit reckless. Early Lean - Under 2.5 rounds (-130)
Dumont vs. Chiasson - Dumont has that 'junk in her trunk' and uses it to her advantage with her grappling earning her control time. Dumont should stick with that gameplan because Chiasson is more of a striker and is tall and lengthy so Dumont doesn't want to fight at a distance. I think Dumont gets the win here, but at -250 i just can't lay that number.
Brown vs. Khaos - I'd really like to see Randy Brown vs. Kevin Holland at some point, they are so alike in every way. Brown will want to keep this fight at distance and use his length. Khaos has lots of power in his hands but will need to get on the inside and could be able to do so with his blitzing attacks he is prone to do. I'm shocked the 'to go distance' prop is about a pick em. Early Lean - Fight NOT go the distance
That's it for prelims...Main card tomorrow
Dumont vs. Chiasson - Dumont has that 'junk in her trunk' and uses it to her advantage with her grappling earning her control time. Dumont should stick with that gameplan because Chiasson is more of a striker and is tall and lengthy so Dumont doesn't want to fight at a distance. I think Dumont gets the win here, but at -250 i just can't lay that number.
Brown vs. Khaos - I'd really like to see Randy Brown vs. Kevin Holland at some point, they are so alike in every way. Brown will want to keep this fight at distance and use his length. Khaos has lots of power in his hands but will need to get on the inside and could be able to do so with his blitzing attacks he is prone to do. I'm shocked the 'to go distance' prop is about a pick em. Early Lean - Fight NOT go the distance
Cerrone vs. Lauzon - As a fan of Cowboy, i really hope this is his last fight. I thought Dana White had already cut him, but i guess they want one last hurrah on a big show. I hope it's the last fight because Cerrone has been a shell of himself ever since his loss to Tony Ferguson a few years ago (more on Ferguson later). Lauzon hasn't fought in 3 years and looked similar to how Cerrone looks now, when we last saw him. Neither of these guys should be in a cage fighting anymore after the damage they have taken in their respected careers. Both men have a lot of pride and i think they will stand and trade strikes. Cerrone is a slight favorite, but i can't pick a winner here. Early Lean - Joe Lauzon by TKO/KO (+600) & Cowboy by TKO/KO (+270) I think somebody wilts from the damage early...might as well add Lauzon by KO/TKO in 1st round (+1500)
Cerrone vs. Lauzon - As a fan of Cowboy, i really hope this is his last fight. I thought Dana White had already cut him, but i guess they want one last hurrah on a big show. I hope it's the last fight because Cerrone has been a shell of himself ever since his loss to Tony Ferguson a few years ago (more on Ferguson later). Lauzon hasn't fought in 3 years and looked similar to how Cerrone looks now, when we last saw him. Neither of these guys should be in a cage fighting anymore after the damage they have taken in their respected careers. Both men have a lot of pride and i think they will stand and trade strikes. Cerrone is a slight favorite, but i can't pick a winner here. Early Lean - Joe Lauzon by TKO/KO (+600) & Cowboy by TKO/KO (+270) I think somebody wilts from the damage early...might as well add Lauzon by KO/TKO in 1st round (+1500)
St. Preux vs. Shogun - Is this an old-timer's PPV? Rua looked old and slow in his last fight against Paul Craig and OSP hasn't looked much better. Both fighters have been involved a lot of finishes. I've seen OSP as high as -260 fave no lean here as i can't lay those odds on OSP, but i expect him to win.
St. Preux vs. Shogun - Is this an old-timer's PPV? Rua looked old and slow in his last fight against Paul Craig and OSP hasn't looked much better. Both fighters have been involved a lot of finishes. I've seen OSP as high as -260 fave no lean here as i can't lay those odds on OSP, but i expect him to win.
Ferguson vs. Chandler - Ferguson has also been a shell of himself ever since the beating he took from Justin Gaethje. Chandler is someone who's damage over the years ought to catch up to him soon. His last fight, also against Gaethje, was another all-out war only he took less than half the damage Ferguson did when he went almost 5 rounds with Gaethje. Ferguson has been out-grappled in his last 2 bouts. Chandler has grappling/wrestling ability, but haven't seen it used much in UFC. Chandler is a 4 to 1 fave and while i agree it's likely he gets the nod, i can't lay those odds. i don't really see any other plays with this fight worth going for. may put some pocket change to El Cuccuy just for fun
Ferguson vs. Chandler - Ferguson has also been a shell of himself ever since the beating he took from Justin Gaethje. Chandler is someone who's damage over the years ought to catch up to him soon. His last fight, also against Gaethje, was another all-out war only he took less than half the damage Ferguson did when he went almost 5 rounds with Gaethje. Ferguson has been out-grappled in his last 2 bouts. Chandler has grappling/wrestling ability, but haven't seen it used much in UFC. Chandler is a 4 to 1 fave and while i agree it's likely he gets the nod, i can't lay those odds. i don't really see any other plays with this fight worth going for. may put some pocket change to El Cuccuy just for fun
Rose Namajunas vs. Carla Esparza - Namajunas is the champ coming off a close decision win over Weili Zhang. Rose is very well-rounded, but her striking is very crisp and she has great balance and footwork in setting up her shots. She is a decent grappler and if the fight goes to the mat, her BJJ is is very strong. Esparza is pretty one dimensional, but her wrestling takedowns are top notch. Problem with her getting TD's is that she doesn't control her opponent on the ground most of the time. These girls fought years ago on TUF and Esparza dominated with TD's that Namajunas kept walking into, Esparza will look to replicate that same gameplan. Rose was 21 years old in that fight and is much more mature at this stage in her career. She should take a page out of her rival Joanna Jedrzejczyk play-book and rely less on kicks so Esparza cannot grab a leg, and also keep both feet planted and be ready to sprawl when Esparza shoots. If Namajunas cans stuff the TD's and keep this on the feet, than Esparza is no match in the striking department. Early Lean - Rose Namajunas by KO/TKO in 4th/5th round.....This time Namajunas stops Esparza's only point of attack, and when your shooting TD's and coming up empty it's exhausting physically and mentally. Rose's striking will end the night for her tired opponent.
Rose Namajunas vs. Carla Esparza - Namajunas is the champ coming off a close decision win over Weili Zhang. Rose is very well-rounded, but her striking is very crisp and she has great balance and footwork in setting up her shots. She is a decent grappler and if the fight goes to the mat, her BJJ is is very strong. Esparza is pretty one dimensional, but her wrestling takedowns are top notch. Problem with her getting TD's is that she doesn't control her opponent on the ground most of the time. These girls fought years ago on TUF and Esparza dominated with TD's that Namajunas kept walking into, Esparza will look to replicate that same gameplan. Rose was 21 years old in that fight and is much more mature at this stage in her career. She should take a page out of her rival Joanna Jedrzejczyk play-book and rely less on kicks so Esparza cannot grab a leg, and also keep both feet planted and be ready to sprawl when Esparza shoots. If Namajunas cans stuff the TD's and keep this on the feet, than Esparza is no match in the striking department. Early Lean - Rose Namajunas by KO/TKO in 4th/5th round.....This time Namajunas stops Esparza's only point of attack, and when your shooting TD's and coming up empty it's exhausting physically and mentally. Rose's striking will end the night for her tired opponent.
Justin Gaethje vs. Charles Oliveira - The champ Oliveira has won 10 UFC fights in a row and has gotten better in each fight along the way. Once considered "just another guy" starting in 2018 he just kept winning fights until he could no longer be ignored. He is a high level BJJ fighter and is extremely dangerous when the fight hits the mat. Lately he has also shown improvements in his striking ability although isn't elite, just very capable. Gaethje, once a very decorated wrestler, has become an 'elite muay thai striker' who hits like a ton of bricks and is as tough as they come. Gaethje has lethal leg kicks that can break his opponents down. In his title loss to Khabib, i thought he actually won the 1st round and was really hurting him with his leg strikes until Khabib decided enough was enough and took him down and choked him out in like 15 seconds lol. The thing that worries me about Oliveira is his willingness to strike early on in fights against fighters who are better skilled in that area than he is. Oliveira has been in 40 fights in his career and has been finished. He isn't necessarily "chinny" but he can get wobbled and likely will get wobbled if he decides to throw hands with Gaethje. I would hope his plan would be to somehow get the fight to the mat where he can fish for submissions or at least hold onto some control time, so he isn't getting battered in the stand-up. I'm a bit puzzled as to what would happen if these 2 get into any sort of clinch and start to grapple since Gaethje is hailed for his wrestling, yet barely ever uses it in fights. I think Gaethje is going to do all he can to avoid opportunities for Oliveira to take this to the mat. Early Lean - Justin Gaethje by 2nd round KO/TKO....Oliveira's willingness to strike is going to catch up to him and it feels like Gaethje's time to shine with this fight in his backyard.
Early Leans are subject to change
Justin Gaethje vs. Charles Oliveira - The champ Oliveira has won 10 UFC fights in a row and has gotten better in each fight along the way. Once considered "just another guy" starting in 2018 he just kept winning fights until he could no longer be ignored. He is a high level BJJ fighter and is extremely dangerous when the fight hits the mat. Lately he has also shown improvements in his striking ability although isn't elite, just very capable. Gaethje, once a very decorated wrestler, has become an 'elite muay thai striker' who hits like a ton of bricks and is as tough as they come. Gaethje has lethal leg kicks that can break his opponents down. In his title loss to Khabib, i thought he actually won the 1st round and was really hurting him with his leg strikes until Khabib decided enough was enough and took him down and choked him out in like 15 seconds lol. The thing that worries me about Oliveira is his willingness to strike early on in fights against fighters who are better skilled in that area than he is. Oliveira has been in 40 fights in his career and has been finished. He isn't necessarily "chinny" but he can get wobbled and likely will get wobbled if he decides to throw hands with Gaethje. I would hope his plan would be to somehow get the fight to the mat where he can fish for submissions or at least hold onto some control time, so he isn't getting battered in the stand-up. I'm a bit puzzled as to what would happen if these 2 get into any sort of clinch and start to grapple since Gaethje is hailed for his wrestling, yet barely ever uses it in fights. I think Gaethje is going to do all he can to avoid opportunities for Oliveira to take this to the mat. Early Lean - Justin Gaethje by 2nd round KO/TKO....Oliveira's willingness to strike is going to catch up to him and it feels like Gaethje's time to shine with this fight in his backyard.
After watching him this week i'm not even sure pocket change is worth putting on Ferguson. He just sounds like his mind is in a different place. Part of me feels like it wasn't just the physical beating he got by Gaethje, but almost mentally checked out from at one time being locked into a headline fight with Khabib for the undisputed champion a few years ago. Then he got beat up by JG, and then out-wrestled by Oliveira and Dariush. And while i realize there is no shame in losing to any of those fighters, i think in his mind he knows he was in position to be the top guy of the division but fell short and part of him feels like it was stolen. Just get bad vibes from him.....he wants to try boxing??? Where were those ideas to box and the animosity towards Dana 3-4 years ago when he was a title contender?
idk maybe i'm overthinking it. I'll be posting my picks tomorrow while watching Bellator and PFL.....gotta see these fighters on the scale still
BOL Fist
After watching him this week i'm not even sure pocket change is worth putting on Ferguson. He just sounds like his mind is in a different place. Part of me feels like it wasn't just the physical beating he got by Gaethje, but almost mentally checked out from at one time being locked into a headline fight with Khabib for the undisputed champion a few years ago. Then he got beat up by JG, and then out-wrestled by Oliveira and Dariush. And while i realize there is no shame in losing to any of those fighters, i think in his mind he knows he was in position to be the top guy of the division but fell short and part of him feels like it was stolen. Just get bad vibes from him.....he wants to try boxing??? Where were those ideas to box and the animosity towards Dana 3-4 years ago when he was a title contender?
idk maybe i'm overthinking it. I'll be posting my picks tomorrow while watching Bellator and PFL.....gotta see these fighters on the scale still
I don't think you're overthinking it. In the DC/Tony sit-down, DC brought up the fact that Tony had been too focused on Khabib during the Gaethje/Olives/Dariush buildups, as one of the reasons for some of his recent struggles. There are many reasons for his struggles, but I think it's a fair point.
With that said, I'll still sprinkle some on Tony to win in rd2 + rd3. Fight will be very interesting if it makes it out of rd1.
I don't think you're overthinking it. In the DC/Tony sit-down, DC brought up the fact that Tony had been too focused on Khabib during the Gaethje/Olives/Dariush buildups, as one of the reasons for some of his recent struggles. There are many reasons for his struggles, but I think it's a fair point.
With that said, I'll still sprinkle some on Tony to win in rd2 + rd3. Fight will be very interesting if it makes it out of rd1.
no lean here as i can't lay those odds on OSP, but i expect him to win.
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