UFC 273, Pichel vs Madsen

Odds opened

Pichel -150,  Madsen +130 then to Pichel -135,  Madsen +115, then to Pichel -125, Madsen +105

70% Topology likes Madsen.

I'm thinking about loading up on Pichel -125.

Pichel gets taken down often but still wins his fights because he gets out of it like previous 3 fights. 

Pichel is stronger and much better striker, and expects wrestling match.  Madsen Olympic wrestler Silver. 

Madsen hasn’t blown me away since joining the UFC, but in this fight against someone who gets taken down as easily as Pichel does, it concerns me if I was thinking of backing Pichel.

GL this weekend my friend   

@paletta007

I watched Pichel's last fight and I really wasn't that impressed with him either.  All I keep reading about is his strength and I seen it in short workouts but it did not show in the fight.  Madsen being a top Olympian wrestler, it don't get better than him at the ground game.  Pichel was able to get out of take downs by making opponent be too high on his back and he slid out, I don't think it works with Madsen, he trains not to do that his entire career.  Madsen might eat a few punches, he had his jaw broken few fights ago, but I think he gets the take downs and stays on top the entire round. Pichel's cardio is better than Madsen's but Madsen being on top so much should counter that.  

Madsen +105. 

So are you "loading up on Pichel at -125",or betting Madsen at +105?

Madsen should be the play.  The line has moved where Madsen is no longer plus money and getting closer to a pickem match.  Madsen will wrestle and control Pichel for 3 rounds.  Most likely a boring decision win.

I loaded up on +105.  In interviews, Pichel just has a lot of confidence and that can drag a bettor to his side.  He brags that he gets out of many opponent's takedowns by using strength. I don't see that happening against the Olympic wrestler. If he does, he's just going right back down.  Madsen has wrestled the world's best, and Pichel isn't in that league. It's not always strength when it comes to these fights. In recent matches, Pichel was mostly strongly unfavored by the public, and Madsen mostly strongly favored.  Pichel is ranked 24 lightW worldwide, Madsen 29. I always thought those Tapology picks just took the better ranked opponent, but this is one case that it's not.  Of 3,145 pics, 70% chose the lesser ranked fighter Madsen.  I didn't get to see any of Madsen's previous fights, just Pichel's. Here's a good case of strength vs technique and Madsen needs to use his cage IQ with the technique.  Most of the UFC 273 pick videos that I've seen said this is a tough pick. 

Cardio is my only concern for Madsen. Constant takedown attempts are gruelling on your gas tank, especially if you opponent is getting back too his feet rather easy. 

GL tomorrow  

Madsen will blow his load in rd1 like he always does. Pichel knows that and will pick him apart with leg kicks and jabs rd 2/3. Decision win Pichel. 

I will be firing on Pichel not sure how much yet I totally disagree with ufctrojan Madsen will not be able to control Pichel for 3 rounds on the ground I think Pichel gets a finish imo but definitely the nod in the end by better striking an takedown defense as the fight gets later cash it

@GofotitRock

 Pichel for finish???? He hasn't finished anyone in 5 years.  Madsen is 11-0 and while I think of Madsen as an older fight, Pichel is actually older by a couple of years. I agree with Madsen's gas tank, but he fought Clay Guida (a cardio machine) and beat him too.