UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2

YTD 53-72 -0.13 units 

Slowly working our way back to even on the year after a rough start. 

Been looking forward to this card for a while! 

I will post some insight's & thoughts as the week goes on 

GL as always  

Osbourne vs Vergara 

First fight of the night, on what should be an awesome card. Osbourne coming into this fight just two months after that brutal KO. This will be his second fight at 125, which is a weight class that I think best suits him. He is a good striker with legit power. He likes to use his range and counter punch his opponents, which I think will benefit him in this fight. He is the more versatile fighter in this matchup. Vergara is making his UFC debut after winning on the contender series back in September. Vergara is also a striker with good power and likes to use his knees. He likes to pressure forward, which I think plays into Ode's counter punch style. He does like to mix in takedowns when he feels he has the advantage, so that will be something to watch here. If Ode keeps this on the feet, I think he has the clear advantage. ML on Osbourne is a little rich for my blood so I will see if I can find value in a prop, or I will watch and see how Ode bounces back after that bad KO just two months ago. 

Baghdasaryan vs Souza 

Late replacement Souza is making his UFC debut. He won the LFA championship back in August. He is a karate style fighter with a wide stance. He likes to fight on the outside and counter punch his opponent with well timed shots. He does have OK takedowns and will use them in fights he feels at a disadvantage in the striking, and he might need that here. Baghdasaryan is 1-0 in the UFC after winning his debut back in late July via 2nd round KO. He is a very aggressive fighter with a furry of different attacks. He is a diverse striker and shows his opponents a lot of different looks. Before entering the UFC all his finishes were early in round 1, not one longer then 35 seconds. I think Souza will try and slow down Baghdasaryan  knowing how dangerous he is early, and try and frustrate him as the fight goes on. Currently sitting around +250, I think Souza has some value to grind out an ugly decision over and over anxious fighter with little experience. I'm not ready too place that bet, but I will give it more thought as the week goes on. 

Jacoby vs Allan 

Another short notice fight. Jacoby is no stranger to short notice fight's. I believe he just took this fight a few days ago. Jacoby is a lethal kick boxer with very dangerous and powerful kicks. He uses them well to set up his good striking and will look to wear his opponents down. His takedown defense isn't great, but he has shown he can work his way up from the mat and continue to look good in fights. In his fight against Cutelaba he was taken down 8-9 times, and still managed to DRAW that fight. Allan is an OK striker with a solid jab. He likes to fight inside the pocket and work in some takedowns. He will shoot for takedowns on average of 2 per fight and gets them secured at a 71% clip. He is a very tough and durable fighter also. I think the striking and technique of Jacoby will be too much for Allan. I will look to work Jacoby in a parlay, and I will also monitor the fight to go the distance at +140 odds. 

Villante vs Barnett 

First heavyweight fight of the night. Barnett is making his 2nd appearance in the UFC. He lost his debut back in May against Rothwell, which was a terrible matchup. Barnett gets a much better matchup here. For his size & body, Barnett is very athletic and quick. He throws quick hands and has legit power. He is very creative and diverse with his attacks and mixes things up with high & low kicks. His reach is always a problem, as he is always reaching for his opponent. Villante is back and will be looking for his first win in over 3 years. Just an average fighter. Decent boxer with good power if he catches you. He tends to hold his hands low and finds himself getting hit more often then not. I will back Barnett at + money as I think he is the more dangerous and capable fighter's of the two. 

Garry vs Williams 

Much anticipated debut of Ian Garry. "The Future" of Ireland will look to get his UFC career underway with a bang. He is relatively inexperienced with only 7 pro fights under his belt. He is a good striker with very quick hands and good solid footwork. He trains at Sanford MMA so he should come prepared for his debut, even though he is only 23 years old. In comes Williams who will look to spoil the party. 0-2 in his UFC career so far. Williams is a very tough fighter with good power. He is a very busy striker that likes to throw volume. He has OK kicks and will look to mix things up. He does attempt take downs and will look to grapple his opponents, and he might need that in this fight to slow the quicker Garry down. The toughness of Williams & the debut of Garry has me leaning towards the over 1.5 rounds at even money. I will wait for weigh in to make a final decision on this fight. 

Imavov vs Shahbazyan 

This should be a solid fight. Shahbazyan was a legit prospect just a couple years ago before losing 2 fights in a row. He will look too get back on track here. Shahbazyan is a very good striker with very good power. He also mixes in kicks very well. He has shown OK take down defense in the past, but in his last two losses, he has shown very little ability to get back onto his feet, which in the end, resulted in two bad losses. Imavov is 2-1 in the UFC and has shown some solid skills in his fights. He also is a good striker with great cardio and never seems to fade. He will also grapple and has good elbows in close range. Imavov has a clear path for victory, and that is getting this to the ground. I just don't know if that's his strength. I also have to think after those last two losses, Shahbazyan has been working on his ground game, and focusing more on his grappling & wrestling. I lean Shahbazyan at +110. 

Hawes vs Curtis 

This fight was supposed to happen last month. Hawes original opponent back in October pulled out and his replacement was Curtis, but Hawes later pulled out as he wanted more time to prepare. So here we are. Hawes has a clean 3-0 record. He is a complete fighter with legit power and mixes in his kicks really well. He will mix in take downs when he has his opponents backing up or off balanced. He has heavy top control and dangerous ground and pound. His path to victory is clear. Mix up his striking & kicks, and get this to the ground and control the fight. Curtis is making his UFC debut. He is an experienced fighter with lots of fights in his career. He is a boxer with legit 1 punch power. His take down defense is suspect, and I think that will ultimately cost him this fight. Hawes is a big favorite which I think is well deserved. I do like this fight to last a bit so I will look at a round bet and see if I can find any value. 

Green vs Iaquinta 

Weird match up here. Iaquinta coming back after a 2 year layoff. How prepared will he be? One thing we know about him is his toughness. He is a wrestle heavy fighter and will never quit. I have a hard time betting on fighters who are at this stage in their careers and coming back after long layoffs. Green on the other hand has been very active over the past 2 years. He has fought in some great fight's, not always winning, but has looked good even in his losses. He is a plus striker with clean boxing. He can also grapple and will never stop putting pressure on his opponent. He is extremely durable & has good take down defense. I like Green in this fight, but I'm not sure how I want too back him just yet. +700 on Green to win by finish is juicy, but Its priced accordingly. I will most likely pass on this fight or sprinkle something small on a prop. 

Pereira vs Michailidis 

Prelim fight of the night. Pereira making his UFC debut. He's famous for his kick boxing KO over Adesanya. He is a very good striker with legitimate power with his hands and kicks. He times his shots very well. X factor in this fight, will he be able to defend the take down & will he be able too handle the grapple exchanges with Michailidis. If he does I think this will be a nice & easy victory for him. Michailidis is 1-1 since joining the UFC and has looked average. He's an average striker, but its clear he wants too grapple and grind out an ugly victory. I think Pereira gets the job done, but at -250 I will avoid that and see how he looks in his debut. I will see if I can find value elsewhere as the week rolls on. 

Busy last couple days, no time for write ups for main card. 

I will post picks shortly   

Prelim picks, 

Baghdasaryan/Souza fight to go distance (YES) +100 - 1 unit to win 1 unit 

Barnett ML +100 - 2 units to win 2 units 

Garry/Williams over 1.5 rounds -110 - 1 unit to win 0.90 units 

Shahbazyan ML +100 - 1 unit to win 1 unit 

Green wins inside distance +700 - 0.5 units to win 3.5 units 

Main card picks, 

Chandler ML +180 - 1 unit to 1.80 units 

Quarantillo ML +162 - 1 unit to win 1.62 units 

Usman/Covington over 3.5 rounds -150 - 2 units to win 1.33 units 

Parlay, 

Jacoby/Allan over 1.5 rounds 

Villante/Barnett over 1.5 rounds

Hawes ML 

+187 - 1 unit to win 1.87 units 

 I see a lot of value with Chandler, as he has more ways to win. I’m on the Gaethje side of that one, but man what a great matchup. Best of luck tonight!

@The_Fist

 You also 

Parlay

Imavov

Hawes

Pereira

Weili

@Billyjean123

 GL