Posted:
#1
YTD 50-70 -3.57 units
Back on fight island this weekend. Should be a fun night with some great fights.
Insight and picks as the week rolls on 
GL ALL 
UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira
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Posts: 24
GL as always 
Posted:
#6
Ulanbekov vs Nascimento
First fight on a loaded card. Ulanbekov like many fighter's on this card is a great wrestler, and he should showcase that in this fight. 1-0 in the UFC, he will look to keep his win streak going. In his first UFC fight around a year ago, he showed he is not scared to shoot take down's all fight. He did so 10 times, being successful 5 times. His striking is average and has a decent jab. Nascimento is making his UFC debut, and this isn't a great match up for him. He has OK striking & decent power, but his struggle will be keeping this fight on its feet & that will determine the outcome. Nascimento has shown some decent sweeps and submissions while on the ground, but against someone like Ulanbekov, it will be a tall task. Don't see much in terms of betting here, but I will monitor some props and see if I find any value.
Posted:
#7
Ismagulov vs Mustafaev
Interesting match up. Ismagulov is riding a 4 fight UFC win streak, all by decision. He is a good wrestler, and has good cardio and never seems to slow down. He uses his length and range on his feet, to set up his take down's and he does that very well. His striking is just average, but he has shown in the past he will stand and trade if the opportunity presents itself. In comes Mustafaev, more of a wild fighter. Also a good wrestler, but is more then willing to stand and strike. Has good power and creative striking, sometimes too creative. Mustafaev take down defense is below average, and that could be an issue here. If Ismagulov gets sucked into a striking battle I like the value with Mustafaev at around +225, but Ismagulov has shown to be a smart fighter, and uses his wrestling to get himself out of bad situations. I will watch the lines as we get closer to the weekend and make a decision after weigh ins.
Posted:
#8
Petroski vs Hu
Former heavyweight Hu making his return after a 3 year layoff. Hu not only making his return after a long layoff, but he is also riding a 2 fight losing streak. He is a forward pressure fighter, who throws big power shots. He is a tall fighter who can use his range well. Petroski on the other hand is a wrestler. His striking is below average, and he uses big power shots in order to set up his take down attempts. Hu currently sits at +200 and I think a large part is because his long layoff and the 2 fight losing streak. I dont think Petroski is good enough to earn his -250 price tag, and for value alone I will look to back Hu somehow.
Posted:
#9
Murphy vs Amirkhani
Another fight where I think the odds are too wide. Murphy sitting at -350 in my eyes is too much. Murphy is a great striker and has legit power. He also has great footwork & movement and will look to mix up his striking attack. He has shown he's vulnerable against take downs, but he has also shown ability to fight his way back to the feet. Amirkhani has the style to compete with Murphy and that's why I like him as a live dog. I think He will look to grapple here and slow down Murphy, and work the fight to the ground. He averages around 4 take downs per fight. His striking is OK. My concern with him is his cardio. Will the take down attempts early in the fight tire him out as the fight goes on? If so I think he will be in trouble in rounds 2-3. I will weight until weigh ins and see if I'm ready to back Amirkhani.
Posted:
#10
Gamzatov vs Oleksiejczuk
Opposite styles clash here. Gamzatov is returning after a 2 year year layoff. He loves to grapple and that is his strength. He is a dangerous fighter who looks to slow his opponent down with kicks & I think that will benefit him against a pure striker like Oleksiejczuk. I think it will only be a matter of time until Gamzatov forces his way to the ground & the advantage will be obvious. Oleksiejczuk is a pure striker with fast hands & good speed and footwork. But that's about it. I think he has the advantage if somehow this turns into a striking battle, but I think Gamzatov will find a way to control his opponent & look for a finish. I lean Gamzatov to win inside distance & for the fight to end inside distance, both at + money.
Posted:
#11
Zaleski vs Saint-Denis
This should be another interesting fight. Like a lot of the fighter's on this card, Zaleski finds himself a pretty big favorite. He is the more complete fighter, and has much more experience in his career. He is very athletic and has real power. He is very creative with his striking & movement, and does solid work on the ground if that's where the fight ends up. Saint-Denis is a wrestler. And I'm sure that's what he will want to do in this fight. Once he gets on top, he is very heavy and will look for submissions and deliver damage from top position. I think some of the creative and wild movement from Zaleski will play into Saint-Denis style, as he will look for take down's immediately in those off balance exchanges. I lean Saint-Denis at +200.
Posted:
#12
Duraev vs Kopylov
Another wrestler vs striker. Another big favorite. Seems to be the theme of the prelim fights. Duraev fought last month on the contender series and looked solid. Making his official UFC debut this weekend, he will look too keep things rolling. He is a very good wrestler, with heavy ground & pound and top pressure, which I think will be the X factor in this fight. He also has solid leg kicks which he uses to control his opponent before working in his take downs. Kopylov is returning after a 2 year layoff. Coming off a submission loss against a kick boxer, I think he will be in big trouble once this ends up on the mat. I think Duraev dominates this fight, so I will see if I can place him into a parlay and get some value that way.
Posted:
#13
Tukhugov vs Ramos
Another solid fight here. This one is interesting. Ramos I would say is the more complete fighter. He has very slick striking and uses his kicks really well too control range. His take down defense is solid and he will need that in this fight. The one thing I like about Ramos which I think could benefit him against the take down attempts from Tukhugov, is his movement and ability to keep range. He has also shown decent ability to scramble which could be useful here. He sometimes pulls guard and will work from his back, which I think will be a negative in this fight as I think Tukhugov has the ability to control him and grind out a victory. Tukhugov is an OK striker, who will look to march forward and look for his take downs early and often. If he is unsuccessful early, he has shown he get's sloppy and his cardio will fade him. I think that's the big question mark here. I lean Ramos at + money in a close fight.
Posted:
#14
Ribas vs Jandiroba
Prelim fight of the night. Ribas is the clear cut better striker. Her striking differential is 4/1. Her take down defense is 85% and she will need it in this fight. Jandiroba is coming off a victory back in June, and will have her work cut out in this fight. Her striking is OK, and her game plan normally is to work the fight to the ground. If Ribas keeps this standing I smell trouble for Jandiroba, as her striking differential is 2/3. Ribas is my pick in this fight, and I anticipate the odds get worse as the weeks goes on.
Posted:
#15
Ankalaev vs Oezdemir
First fight of the main card. Should have fireworks. Ankalaev riding a 6 fight win streak will look to keep this rolling. He is a good striker with legit power and great kicks. Hold power in both his hands and legs, and both are a serious threat. If he finds himself in trouble on the feet, he is more then capable taking the fight to the ground in order to get things under control. His take down defense is also very good. Oezdemir also a good striker with legit power. Throws volume and is always look to damage his opponent with every shot. He also has good take down defense. Oezdemir has fought the better competition, and has more experience so that could play a factor if he gets Ankalaev in trouble early. Ankalaev at -350 is too wide in my opinion. I doubt I back any side in this fight, but I will look for a rounds prop if I see any value.
Posted:
#22
Recap 
Prelim fights,
Gamzzatov/Oleksiejczuk fight to go distance(NO) +120 - 1 unit to win 1.2 units 
Saint-Denis ML +200 - 0.5 units to win 1 unit 
Ramos ML +140 - 1 unit to win 1.4 units
Ribas ML -160 - 3 units to win 1.87 units
Parlay,
Petroski/Hu Over 1.5 rounds + Duraev/Kopylov over 1.5 rounds +187 - 1 unit to win 1.87 units
3-2 +3.44 units
YTD 53-72 -0.13 units
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