UFC 251

UFC 99-82-1

UFC 251

Early Prelims
Zhalgas Zhumagulov (+165)

Gilbert Burns is off the card after testing positive for COVID-19, and Kamaru Usman did not board the chartered flight to Abu Dhabi with the other fighters. Let's see if they just reschedule the fight or get Covington or Masvidal to step in on short notice.

Geoff Neal is highly possible as well hes on a 7 fight win streak and is ready to go.

Damn this virus, screwing up lives, livelihoods economies and sports. I really wanted to see that main event. I am sure UFC has a fighter or two as backup for each of the fights. Those guys have to have been isolated all this time not knowing if they would get the call. Not sure how that will affect things. They may know which fight they are a backup for and could study both possible opponents, but the people signed up for the fight may not know who the backups are

If nobody has time or knowledge ahead of time, I guess just go with whoever has a dominant aspect to their game, as it will either be a brawl or one dominant aspect imposes itself on the fight.

It is going to take a sports fan to come up with the cure for this Covid crap :)

Good luck all,

Manowarfan1

There are reports that negotiations for Usman vs. Masvidal are done and that an agreement has been reached. As long as both fighters test negative for COVID, they will be the new main event of UFC 251.

Raulian Paiva vs. Zhalgas Zhumagulov

Originally scheduled to debut on what would’ve been the UFC’s first event in Kazakhstan (Eye vs. Calvillo), fighting out of Aktobe, Kazakhstan, Zhalgas is coming in on a 4 fight win streak. Having won 7 of his last 8 fights, Zhalgas successfully defended his Flyweight title in his last bout at Fight Nights Global in a close win over the former UFC Flyweight challenger Ali Bagautinov.

Signed after winning a close split decision on DW’s Contender Series: Brazil, Paiva has produced a UFC record of 1-2. His win was in his last fight versus Mark De La Rosa, who’s UFC record of 2-5 includes two wins over opponents no longer in the UFC.

Paiva is primarily a striker with basic boxing and poor striking defense who doesn’t throw very many kicks. He looks to pressure his opponents with volume on the feet and in the clinch. He’ll have about a 3 inch height advantage and is about 7 years younger than Zhalgas at 24.

Zhumagulov has the more polished and technical striking, better footwork, and lands with more power. He’ll be dangerous separating from the clinch, where Paiva often looks to be. Zhalgas should be able to land significant strikes as Paiva is very hittable and tends to keep his hands down while leaning in with his chin up. Zhalgas also has a solid blast double, and does good work in top position along the fence.

With this fight likely playing out mainly as a kickboxing match, and as hittable as Paiva is, Zhumagulov’s seasoned striking, footwork, and power should give him the edge in the striking exchanges earning him the victory.

Zhalgas Zhumagulov (+165)

@BleedBlue33 Geoff Neal is probably one or two big wins away from a title shot. His coach/manager has said that people don't want to fight Neal, which is likely why he hasn't fought in so long.

@Manowarfan1 These fights during the pandemic really show who the real fighters are, as they find ways to train through it. Sounds like Masvidal was staying in shape even after being passed on for Burns, as he had a feeling something would come up.

Nice work cash. Everyone always appreciates some actual analysis of a match instead of just posting a random pick then hoping for recognition if it wins or just moving on to the next if it loses. I like your angle on this one. Good call gettin in early too! cant get that good price anymore. . Theyre -250 to go the distance maybe get some extra coin on Zhal by decision. Keep in mind the 2 ufc losses that Paiva have are a split decision and an early doc stoppage for a broken nose. Trying Zhal by points at +215

manowar- I saw where you said scott hall is your bro!?! That is amazing! Tell him a lot of peeps thought he was the best and are super happy that he came out the other side! DDP YOGA!!

Ya i just figured if masvidal said no geoff would of had a chance to step in on short notice im sure usman would of accepted 

@BABYFACE024 Paiva's first round loss to Rogerio Bontorin was actually due to a doctor stoppage for what was a huge cut on his eyebrow above his right eye, earning Bontorin his 3rd career win by KO/TKO. Zhalgas is roughly the same height and build as Bontorin, with 6 of his 13 wins by TKO/KO and 1 by submission so it's interesting that Zhumagulov wins by TKO/KO is (+925) having faced and beaten better opposition.

Assuming Paiva looks to mainly trade strikes on the feet, it's very possible the fight looks similar to Zhumagulov's 5 round win over experienced striker and now fellow UFC fighter Tyson Nam at Fight Nights Global 86 about two years ago. For anyone interested the entire fight is on YT.

Another thing to note is Paiva has come in 3 pounds over the Flyweight limit. Fighters who missed weight in 2020 are 3-6 with the last 6 losing their fights and 5 of those losses ending by stoppage. Both guys are durable but I wouldn't be surprised to see a stoppage in what should be an exciting fight, and the under 2.5 rounds at (+240) has some value.

UFC 251 Weigh-in Faceoffs

Excellent writes up! Appreciate it every time! BOL to you tonight.

Early Prelims
Martin Day (-127)
Karol Rosa (-220)
Zhalgas Zhumagulov (+165)
Maxim Grishin (+117)
Prelims
Roman Bogatov (+167)
Makwan Amirkhani (-170)
Muslim Salikhov (-110)
Jiri Prochazka (+160)
Main Card
Amanda Ribas (-705)
Jessica Andrade (+180)
Petr Yan (-200)
Max Holloway (+200)
Jorge Masvidal (+245)

@Maximus1978 Thanks and good luck today.

Locked in all of them early except Martin Day? 

@jaybucko Not quite, good luck.

That decision was Shyyyttt

Wtf were those refs watching 

Judges I meant 

Some crazy scorecards tonight. Had Zhumagulov winning rounds 2 and 3.

Prochazka has some serious power, what a fight.

Early Prelims
Martin Day (-127)
Karol Rosa (-220)
Zhalgas Zhumagulov (+165)
Maxim Grishin (+117)
Prelims
Roman Bogatov (+167)
Makwan Amirkhani (-170)
Muslim Salikhov (-110)
Jiri Prochazka (+160)
Main Card
Amanda Ribas (-705)
Jessica Andrade (+180)
Petr Yan (-200)
Max Holloway (+200)
Jorge Masvidal (+245)