ufc 204

Wanted to get these in early as I feel they will both change

Michael bisping inside distance -107 $236/$2220.56

bisping by tko/ko $32/$38.40

dan Henderson by tko/ko +300 $32/$96

I had to do the bisping by tko prop because they maxed out the inside distance prop at a $236 risk. 

With this fight being 5 rounds I can really only see it ending 2 ways: bisping picks him apart and finishes him or dan hendo lands one of h bombs early on.  Some stats: dan hendo is 3-6 last 9 fights with 7 of those finishes. He has only been knocked out 3 times in 46 fights but two of those came in his last 3 fights. He is 46 and his chin is clearly gone.  I was very impressed with his last knockout of hector Lombard but before he landed those elbows he was really close to getting knocked out himself.

The way I see this fight going is dan just going for broke and trying to land that one punch which bisping will be cautious of.  He will play it conservative because he knows if dan doesn't land that big shot in the first round to round in a half he wont last the entire 5 rounds and will wear down fast.  I see bisping winning this by knockout in late round 2.  The dan Henderson mini hedge is just in case if it happens it will offset some of the losses and worth it at +300 odds.

Big Hendo fan here... his chin is beyond gone, however, that KO power is still there. I think when looking at the two fighter's styles - you think Bisping will outpoint Hendo and cruise to victory. If Hendo wins, it'll be by KO/TKO. Bisping has always been a smart fighter, but he has a ego, and that's dangerous. It's the one true "blemish" on his record, and he'll want to avenge that posterizing loss. If you watch the videos of Hendo preparing for this fight, you see that he doesn't work on any of his striking while backing up. I think this likely means he'll bait Bisping to come after him and look for the duck-under counter hook/overhand. Anyone who watches knows that Hendo is super slow, so going after his opponent is futile, but if he can evade that 1 or 1,2 and land it, that will work. I'd also not be surprised if Hendo channels a bit of the wrestling and clinch game as well. 

Good analysis who do you like in the fight? i like hendo a lot and have bet him on numerous occasions but watching his last few fights it's clear he needs to retire. He has only 3 knockout losses and 2 of them were in his last 3 fights. That Lombard win was mighty impressive but he was pretty close to getting knocked out in that one also. Bisping has really improved with 4 straight wins. He def shocked the world when he knocked out rockhold and it seems he will never get credit for that it's more of "rockhold took Him lightly" I like the revenge angle here and the fact that this is in England. With this being 5 rounds and Hendos last fight he will go for broke. Bisping knows what's coming and he knows how dangerous hendo will be in the first round. I just see him being patient and as hendo gasses in round 2 bisping will finish him with strikes. I'd be very suprised if this one got past 3 rounds.

Ha love hendo he has had a great career I just think at this point he shouldn't be fighting. His chin is completely gone.