UFC 198/Bellator 154 Money Makers

Tonight's UFC PPV takes place in Brazil and it appears to be a pretty chalky card in my opinion. Most of the favorites are Brazilian for a change, though, so that helps limit some of the potential upsets that you typically see on these Brazilian cards. Usually it's a Brazilian underdog knocking off a heavy favorite who is fighting from another country.

I consider a lot of these plays to fall in the "medium" range for me when it comes to betting MMA. The only fighter on the entire card that I would justify as a "lock" is Cyborg (Cristian Justino is probably how she's listed in your sportsbook). Normally if a woman fighter is a heavy favorite (and not named Rousey), I'd say run for the hills. But not in this case. Her opponent offers nothing in the way of finishing ability, so you can eliminate the crazy fluke punch or submission out of nowhere. Cyborg is making her UFC debut and she is going to absolutely destroy Smith. That's why you'll see Cyborg listed in all of my plays, including her to win ITD (inside the distance. If you think including her that often is too risky, then simply remove her and utilize a different combination of fighters to make your play if you so choose. This isn't a Rousey/Holm situation. You know what you're getting with Smith, and it's going to be a one-sided beatdown. I also added a few fighters from the Bellator card tonight as well. I see a lot of Brazilians winning tonight. Good luck!


UFC 198/Bellator 154


6 Unit Plays
W. Alves + Cyborg ITD + R. Souza (-125)
T. Santos + Cyborg + R. Souza (-120)
P. Cummins + Cyborg ITD (-150)
S. Moraes + T. Santos + Cyborg ITD (-125)
T. Santos ITD + Cyborg ITD (-125)

3 Unit Plays
Cyborg + F. Werdum (-130)
C. Anderson + Cyborg (-125)
D. Maia + W. Alves + Cyborg ITD (-130)
Cyborg ITD + R. Souza ITD (-130)
W. Alves ITD + Cyborg ITD (-120)
A. Fialho + W. Alves + Cyborg ITD (-150)
A. Piccolotti + Cyborg + R. Souza (-125)


2016 Record: 37-35 (-18.55 units)

*All plays are made on a scale of 1-10 units

Good luck! 

Good luck! 

Santos/Cyborg/Souza is around -120 at 5Dimes at the moment if you're trying to keep it as close to +100 as possible. Otherwise, Alves/Cyborg/Souza at around -160 seems to be the "safest" parlay in my opinion, without getting too juicy. I feel like it would take a Vitor headkick KO in Round 1 to blow that up

Well, in my experience, the more legs you add to a parlay, the more dangerous it becomes. I believe Alves will win, which is why I have him in one of my bigger plays. However, I think the risk of adding a 4th leg to that parlay is much bigger than simply paying 20 cents to keep it at 3 legs. It's your money so do with it what you will. I think all 4 of those fighters win, so it's probably a moot point regardless. Good luck on whatever you decide!

UFC 198/Bellator 154


6 Unit Plays
W. Alves + Cyborg ITD + R. Souza (-125)
T. Santos + Cyborg + R. Souza (-120)
P. Cummins + Cyborg ITD (-150)
S. Moraes + T. Santos + Cyborg ITD (-125)
T. Santos ITD + Cyborg ITD (-125)

3 Unit Plays
Cyborg + F. Werdum (-130)
C. Anderson + Cyborg (-125)
D. Maia + W. Alves + Cyborg ITD (-130)
Cyborg ITD + R. Souza ITD (-130)
W. Alves ITD + Cyborg ITD (-120)
A. Fialho + W. Alves + Cyborg ITD (-150)
A. Piccolotti + Cyborg + R. Souza (-125)


Overall Tonight: 5-7 (-12.15 units)

2016 Record: 42-42 (-18.55 units)

*All plays are made on a scale of 1-10 units


Well, as always, picking fights on a Brazilian card resembles walking thru a minefield lol. It's so hard to try to pick out which fights are going to be the parlay busters/upsets. I definitely didn't think Barberena would win a decision in Brazil against someone like Alves. I thought Anderson got robbed in his decision as well. Anderson won about 14 minutes and 40 seconds of that fight. Cummins continues to show he can't take a freaking punch lol. And Werdum losing wasn't very shocking to me. I am high on Miocic. I just thought Werdum would take a more cautious approach and take over in the later rounds after weathering an early storm. I'm not mad about that one. Congrats to Stipe.

Alves pretty much blew things up and caused the losing night. I really like Jacare/Santos so perhaps should have used them as better value instead of forcing Alves. Everything makes sense in hindsight though. Souza/Santos/Cyborg lived up to my expectations at least. Got some more work to do to dig out of the negative hole for the year. Not sure if I'll have any Bellator plays next weekend. If not, see you guys in a few weeks!