Posted:
#1
Today feels like Christmas! This PPV caps off what has been a fun 3-night stretch of fights, and likely sets up to be one of the greatest PPV cards ever assembled. The amount of talent on this card is mind-boggling and it will end with what could be considered the most hyped and most anticipated fight of all-time. I usually stream the PPVs online but even I couldn't resist buying this one. It's going to be a fun night of fights. Sometimes, it's the best cards that are the most difficult to bet. This one is no different. With the final 4 fights off the night not having a favorite any higher than -145, you can see how close some of these matchups really are. These are the types of cards where I look for the solid plays where they present themselves, and then either place some small bets for fun or just sit back and enjoy the action. That looks to be the case here.
Max Holloway and Kevin Lee seem to be the safest and best options for parlay material, as their odds suggest. Kevin Lee has a great style matchup against Santos and should have the edges in quickness, wrestling, and cardio. Seems like a clear cut decision or a late stoppage victory for Lee. Holloway is a fun fighter to watch and should use his quickness and length to hit Stephens from range most of the fight. Stephens is always a dangerous guy and is very opportunistic, but Holloway will likely be too quick and will avoid the big shots. I could see Holloway clipping Stephens and locking up a submission late. I may place a small hedge on Stephens ITD at +710 if it gets to that point in the night and my profit is relying solely on a Holloway win. Regardless, I feel Holloway & Lee are the safest plays on the card.
Mustafaev is an explosive fighter with excellent power and dangerous finishing ability. I think he ends Proctor's night early. If the fight goes to the later rounds, Mustafaev's cardio may be tested and he slows down, but I think he'll be up 2 rounds at that point and just needs to survive the 3rd if it it gets that far (I don't think it will). Some other quick notes: Torres is a woman fighter, which always makes me nervous when placing a bet, but Lybarger is filling in on 2 weeks notice and Torres should have a huge advantage securing takedowns and avoiding the fight on the feet. Faber is on the decline and he honestly hasn't looked that great lately, even in some of his wins. I just don't think Saenz is good enough on the feet and their wrestling probably cancels out. I see this being a decision victory for Faber, with the possibility of a submission if he is able to clip Saenz. Finally, McGee comes back after a long layoffs, so we are unsure of which version of him we will get. If it's a halfway decent version, I think his cardio and the pace that he brings should be enough to take him to a decision win. Torres/Faber/McGee all have a few question marks, though, so that is why I won't be playing them any larger than what is posted.
As far as the final 3 fights of the night go, they are just too close to call in my opinion. There are strong reasons to back each fighter I feel like. When the fights are this close, I typically try to stay away completely or just place a small bet on the guy I feel has the slightest advantages. Good luck finding those in the last 3 fights. Souza/Romero should be great and action-packed. Romero is a scary dude and I can definitely see him catching Jacare on the feet. I can also see Jacare taking Romero down and submitting him as well. Regardless, I don't think it makes it to the score cards. Other than that, I'm staying away from a specific side. Weidman/Rockhold is an amazing fight in its own right and another one that is difficult to predict. I personally think Weidman is a bit overrated. That's just my opinion. I also think Rockhold is a bit underrated. If I had to pick someone here, I'd go with Rockhold, especially as a slight underdog price. Still too close of a fight for me to make a significant bet on unfortunately.
I desperately want to take a solid stance on McGregor/Aldo but it's just too difficult. I see a lot of people acting VERY confident in which ever side they are on. McGregor backers think he's the real deal and that Aldo is going to get knocked out. Aldo backers feel that McGregor is overrated and that Aldo is being undervalued at these odds (although they have shifted quite a bit in the last few days). I just don't understand how both sides can be so certain and so confident. It's just too close to call. Personally, I want Conor to win. I think he's so fun to watch, hilarious to listen to, and unlike someone like Paige VanZant, he actually has some great skills. He has also been great for the UFC and has helped turn this into one of the most anticipated fights of all time. He talks trash and he backs it up. Fun to watch. This is by far his stiffest test to date and we are obviously going to find out whether his hype is for real after tonight. Beating Mendes in July was nice, but Mendes came in on 2 weeks notice and obviously gassed out. Mendes also got KO'd last night by Frankie in the first 3 minutes. Everyone else Conor has faced doesn't hold a candle to what Aldo brings to the table. Aldo hasn't fought in a while now and he also has struggled (a little bit) with pressure fighters. McGregor is most definitely bringing the pressure. I'm sure a lot of people expect Aldo to try to get this to the ground and test McGregor's questionable ground game. But I'm curious to see if Aldo actually does try that. He seems to have a lot of pride and I could see him getting sucked into making this a standup battle and trying to prove a point that he is the superior striker. Will Conor check any of those devastating leg kicks? Up to this point, McGregor hasn't checked any kicks and he just walks right through everything because he doesn't respect his opponent. Very curious to see a lot of these questions answered. No matter what, the MMA world will be much different after tonight. I'm looking forward to it. Good luck on your plays and enjoy the PPV!
UFC 194
10 Unit Play
M. Mustafaev + K. Lee + M. Holloway (-130)
5 Unit Plays
K. Lee + T. Torres + M. Holloway (-120)
K. Lee + U. Faber + M. Holloway (-170)
C. McGee + K. Lee (-115)
M. Musatfaev ITD (+125)
M. Holloway + R. Souza/Y. Romero Under 3 Rounds (-125)
2015 Record: 13-20 (-51.75 units)
*All plays are made on a scale of 1-10 units
Max Holloway and Kevin Lee seem to be the safest and best options for parlay material, as their odds suggest. Kevin Lee has a great style matchup against Santos and should have the edges in quickness, wrestling, and cardio. Seems like a clear cut decision or a late stoppage victory for Lee. Holloway is a fun fighter to watch and should use his quickness and length to hit Stephens from range most of the fight. Stephens is always a dangerous guy and is very opportunistic, but Holloway will likely be too quick and will avoid the big shots. I could see Holloway clipping Stephens and locking up a submission late. I may place a small hedge on Stephens ITD at +710 if it gets to that point in the night and my profit is relying solely on a Holloway win. Regardless, I feel Holloway & Lee are the safest plays on the card.
Mustafaev is an explosive fighter with excellent power and dangerous finishing ability. I think he ends Proctor's night early. If the fight goes to the later rounds, Mustafaev's cardio may be tested and he slows down, but I think he'll be up 2 rounds at that point and just needs to survive the 3rd if it it gets that far (I don't think it will). Some other quick notes: Torres is a woman fighter, which always makes me nervous when placing a bet, but Lybarger is filling in on 2 weeks notice and Torres should have a huge advantage securing takedowns and avoiding the fight on the feet. Faber is on the decline and he honestly hasn't looked that great lately, even in some of his wins. I just don't think Saenz is good enough on the feet and their wrestling probably cancels out. I see this being a decision victory for Faber, with the possibility of a submission if he is able to clip Saenz. Finally, McGee comes back after a long layoffs, so we are unsure of which version of him we will get. If it's a halfway decent version, I think his cardio and the pace that he brings should be enough to take him to a decision win. Torres/Faber/McGee all have a few question marks, though, so that is why I won't be playing them any larger than what is posted.
As far as the final 3 fights of the night go, they are just too close to call in my opinion. There are strong reasons to back each fighter I feel like. When the fights are this close, I typically try to stay away completely or just place a small bet on the guy I feel has the slightest advantages. Good luck finding those in the last 3 fights. Souza/Romero should be great and action-packed. Romero is a scary dude and I can definitely see him catching Jacare on the feet. I can also see Jacare taking Romero down and submitting him as well. Regardless, I don't think it makes it to the score cards. Other than that, I'm staying away from a specific side. Weidman/Rockhold is an amazing fight in its own right and another one that is difficult to predict. I personally think Weidman is a bit overrated. That's just my opinion. I also think Rockhold is a bit underrated. If I had to pick someone here, I'd go with Rockhold, especially as a slight underdog price. Still too close of a fight for me to make a significant bet on unfortunately.
I desperately want to take a solid stance on McGregor/Aldo but it's just too difficult. I see a lot of people acting VERY confident in which ever side they are on. McGregor backers think he's the real deal and that Aldo is going to get knocked out. Aldo backers feel that McGregor is overrated and that Aldo is being undervalued at these odds (although they have shifted quite a bit in the last few days). I just don't understand how both sides can be so certain and so confident. It's just too close to call. Personally, I want Conor to win. I think he's so fun to watch, hilarious to listen to, and unlike someone like Paige VanZant, he actually has some great skills. He has also been great for the UFC and has helped turn this into one of the most anticipated fights of all time. He talks trash and he backs it up. Fun to watch. This is by far his stiffest test to date and we are obviously going to find out whether his hype is for real after tonight. Beating Mendes in July was nice, but Mendes came in on 2 weeks notice and obviously gassed out. Mendes also got KO'd last night by Frankie in the first 3 minutes. Everyone else Conor has faced doesn't hold a candle to what Aldo brings to the table. Aldo hasn't fought in a while now and he also has struggled (a little bit) with pressure fighters. McGregor is most definitely bringing the pressure. I'm sure a lot of people expect Aldo to try to get this to the ground and test McGregor's questionable ground game. But I'm curious to see if Aldo actually does try that. He seems to have a lot of pride and I could see him getting sucked into making this a standup battle and trying to prove a point that he is the superior striker. Will Conor check any of those devastating leg kicks? Up to this point, McGregor hasn't checked any kicks and he just walks right through everything because he doesn't respect his opponent. Very curious to see a lot of these questions answered. No matter what, the MMA world will be much different after tonight. I'm looking forward to it. Good luck on your plays and enjoy the PPV!
UFC 194
10 Unit Play
M. Mustafaev + K. Lee + M. Holloway (-130)
5 Unit Plays
K. Lee + T. Torres + M. Holloway (-120)
K. Lee + U. Faber + M. Holloway (-170)
C. McGee + K. Lee (-115)
M. Musatfaev ITD (+125)
M. Holloway + R. Souza/Y. Romero Under 3 Rounds (-125)
2015 Record: 13-20 (-51.75 units)
*All plays are made on a scale of 1-10 units
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