Posted:
#1
What's up fellas? Long time lurker, first time poster. I love MMA/UFC but for some reason have never really posted plays on here. In fact, I joined the forum several years ago with the intent on posting plays, and just never did. I've been having some success the last few months and I post elsewhere, so I thought I'd add my two cents to the forum here. Some good cappers on here with some nice insight. Hoping to contribute some myself. My sportsbook is 5Dimes, so all of my plays/props are coming straight from there. I know some books don't offer some of the "Inside the Distance" props and things of that nature. All I can say is that if you don't have the same props and can't make the same wager, then don't try to force anything you're uncomfortable with. I'll be using a scale of 1-10 units based on the confidence in my play. Hope everyone cashes tonight!
UFC 193 takes place in a huge outdoor stadium in Australia this evening. Not only is Rousey headling, but up & coming women's superstar Joanna Jedrzejczyk defends her title in the co-main event as well. Both of these fighters were -2000 at one point yesterday, but I see their odds have come down slightly to -1600 and -1500 respectively. Rousey is typically the only person that gets a line that high so it's definitely interesting to see Jedrzejczyk with odds that steep. However, I do feel that she deserves that line. She is just a beast on the feet and Letourneau will have nothing to pose a threat. Normally I wouldn't recommend touching two lines that are that steep, especially with women involved. In this case, however, they are probably the two most deserving of my confidence. The UFC is doing their patented marketing and trying to hype up the Holm/Rousey fight, but honestly I see no chance in hell of Holm winning tonight. Everyone is talking about how Holm will be able to keep Rousey at distance with her kicks and her boxing, and that may be true to an extent, but not for long. Rousey is obviously aware of her opponent's strengths and will not rush in like a maniac. Rousey may stand and trade with Holm for a bit at first, because she wants to prove she has improved striking, but I guarantee Rousey knows she has to get inside and get Holm to the mat, where she will have a significant advantage. For the first time in a long while, I could actually see a Rousey fight go past the 1st round, but that's only because Holm will try to stick and move on the outside, which none of Rousey's opponents ever do. That's why I can't recommend any of the Rousey props of 1st round finishes or anything like that. Make no mistake about it, though, Rousey will be finishing this one in the distance.
Jedrzejczyk is a beast and will mop the floor with Letourneau. Letournea is somewhat tough, so I don't expect this fight to be shorter than the Rousey fight, but I foresee the ref having to step in and stop the fight after Jedrzejczyk gets rolling and carves Valerie up. Jedrzejczyk's only real challenge is going to be when she has her rematch with Claudia Gadelha, in which a lot of people (including me) think Claudia won their first fight. Other than that, Jedrzejczyk is going to clean out the division. She's just as safe of an add to parlays as Rousey is, and that's rare to see.
Mark Hunt vs. Big Foot Silva. My God, you have no idea how long I've been waiting for a chance to get the money back that both of these guys stole from me 2 years ago. These two fought back in December 2013 in a 5 round war, which I thought was one of the funnest fights I've ever seen. What wasn't fun, however, was the fact that I was heavily invested on the fight not going the full 5 rounds. Both men had their chances to finish each other and just couldn't ever complete the task. Both were a bloody mess and after 5 full rounds, the fight was declared a draw. That outcome still haunts me to this day. I lost so much on that fight. No clue how it went all 5 rounds. 2 years later, both fighters have been on a bit of a decline. Each of them have a KO victory, while being KO'd each time in their other 2 fights. Silva was on TRT in their first fight and is now off of it. He has looked completely helpless without it and he looks like a dead man walking. Hunt KO'd Roy Nelson and then got KO'd by Interim Champ Ferbrecio Werdum and then got his butt whooped for 5 rounds by Stipe Miocic. Hunt's 2 losses are way better than the 2 that Silva had. Frank Mir KO'd him for god sakes. This is the perfect opponent for Hunt to get back on track. Silva looks like a glass figurine ever since he went off TRT and Hunt can still pack a punch. Add in the fact that this fight is in Hunt's home of Australia and Silva is in over his head. This fight is only 3 rounds this time, but I still don't see it going that far. I expect Hunt to be a bit patient as he sizes up Silva, and then hit him with a highlight reel walk-off KO. And it's going to feel so good to witness. Rarely do I ever have a UFC bet that is this large, but I'm that confident tonight, so I'm taking my shot.
The rest of the card is kind of all over the place. Some heavy favorites, mixed in with the super heavy favorites of Rousey & Jedrzejczyk, and it's kind of a weird card for betting. I almost didn't post my 1 unit plays because I lack confidence in them compared to the other plays, but I still felt they were worthy of posting. I've been on a nice roll in the UFC the last few months and hope to keep it rolling tonight. Lots of events between now and the end of the year, with some really good fights coming up. Good luck!
10 Unit Play
M. Hunt + J. Jedrzejczyk + R. Rousey ITD (-130)
[b][i][u]
5 Unit Play[/u][/i][/b]
J. Matthews + J. Jedrzejczyk ITD + R. Rousey ITD (-170)
5 Unit Plays
G. Villante + M. Hunt/A. Silva Under 3 Rds + J. Jedrzejczyk + R. Rousey ITD (-140)
M. Hunt ITD + J. Jedrzejczyk + R. Rousey (-130)
1 Unit Plays
P. Sobotta + J. Jedrzejczyk + R. Rousey (-125)
J. Moontasri + M. Hunt + R. Rousey (+100)
R. Walsh + M. Hunt + R. Rousey (+100)
J. Matthews/A. Arreola Under 3 Rds + R. Rousey (-120)
UFC 193 takes place in a huge outdoor stadium in Australia this evening. Not only is Rousey headling, but up & coming women's superstar Joanna Jedrzejczyk defends her title in the co-main event as well. Both of these fighters were -2000 at one point yesterday, but I see their odds have come down slightly to -1600 and -1500 respectively. Rousey is typically the only person that gets a line that high so it's definitely interesting to see Jedrzejczyk with odds that steep. However, I do feel that she deserves that line. She is just a beast on the feet and Letourneau will have nothing to pose a threat. Normally I wouldn't recommend touching two lines that are that steep, especially with women involved. In this case, however, they are probably the two most deserving of my confidence. The UFC is doing their patented marketing and trying to hype up the Holm/Rousey fight, but honestly I see no chance in hell of Holm winning tonight. Everyone is talking about how Holm will be able to keep Rousey at distance with her kicks and her boxing, and that may be true to an extent, but not for long. Rousey is obviously aware of her opponent's strengths and will not rush in like a maniac. Rousey may stand and trade with Holm for a bit at first, because she wants to prove she has improved striking, but I guarantee Rousey knows she has to get inside and get Holm to the mat, where she will have a significant advantage. For the first time in a long while, I could actually see a Rousey fight go past the 1st round, but that's only because Holm will try to stick and move on the outside, which none of Rousey's opponents ever do. That's why I can't recommend any of the Rousey props of 1st round finishes or anything like that. Make no mistake about it, though, Rousey will be finishing this one in the distance.
Jedrzejczyk is a beast and will mop the floor with Letourneau. Letournea is somewhat tough, so I don't expect this fight to be shorter than the Rousey fight, but I foresee the ref having to step in and stop the fight after Jedrzejczyk gets rolling and carves Valerie up. Jedrzejczyk's only real challenge is going to be when she has her rematch with Claudia Gadelha, in which a lot of people (including me) think Claudia won their first fight. Other than that, Jedrzejczyk is going to clean out the division. She's just as safe of an add to parlays as Rousey is, and that's rare to see.
Mark Hunt vs. Big Foot Silva. My God, you have no idea how long I've been waiting for a chance to get the money back that both of these guys stole from me 2 years ago. These two fought back in December 2013 in a 5 round war, which I thought was one of the funnest fights I've ever seen. What wasn't fun, however, was the fact that I was heavily invested on the fight not going the full 5 rounds. Both men had their chances to finish each other and just couldn't ever complete the task. Both were a bloody mess and after 5 full rounds, the fight was declared a draw. That outcome still haunts me to this day. I lost so much on that fight. No clue how it went all 5 rounds. 2 years later, both fighters have been on a bit of a decline. Each of them have a KO victory, while being KO'd each time in their other 2 fights. Silva was on TRT in their first fight and is now off of it. He has looked completely helpless without it and he looks like a dead man walking. Hunt KO'd Roy Nelson and then got KO'd by Interim Champ Ferbrecio Werdum and then got his butt whooped for 5 rounds by Stipe Miocic. Hunt's 2 losses are way better than the 2 that Silva had. Frank Mir KO'd him for god sakes. This is the perfect opponent for Hunt to get back on track. Silva looks like a glass figurine ever since he went off TRT and Hunt can still pack a punch. Add in the fact that this fight is in Hunt's home of Australia and Silva is in over his head. This fight is only 3 rounds this time, but I still don't see it going that far. I expect Hunt to be a bit patient as he sizes up Silva, and then hit him with a highlight reel walk-off KO. And it's going to feel so good to witness. Rarely do I ever have a UFC bet that is this large, but I'm that confident tonight, so I'm taking my shot.
The rest of the card is kind of all over the place. Some heavy favorites, mixed in with the super heavy favorites of Rousey & Jedrzejczyk, and it's kind of a weird card for betting. I almost didn't post my 1 unit plays because I lack confidence in them compared to the other plays, but I still felt they were worthy of posting. I've been on a nice roll in the UFC the last few months and hope to keep it rolling tonight. Lots of events between now and the end of the year, with some really good fights coming up. Good luck!
10 Unit Play
M. Hunt + J. Jedrzejczyk + R. Rousey ITD (-130)
[b][i][u]
5 Unit Play[/u][/i][/b]
J. Matthews + J. Jedrzejczyk ITD + R. Rousey ITD (-170)
5 Unit Plays
G. Villante + M. Hunt/A. Silva Under 3 Rds + J. Jedrzejczyk + R. Rousey ITD (-140)
M. Hunt ITD + J. Jedrzejczyk + R. Rousey (-130)
1 Unit Plays
P. Sobotta + J. Jedrzejczyk + R. Rousey (-125)
J. Moontasri + M. Hunt + R. Rousey (+100)
R. Walsh + M. Hunt + R. Rousey (+100)
J. Matthews/A. Arreola Under 3 Rds + R. Rousey (-120)
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