Posted:
#1
What a special fight.
It is over a decade + past when it should have happened but it is happening now. What it symbolizes are two men well past their primes fading into the twilight. Still we are seeing it. Think of it as Tyson Holyfied 3.
How they will fade is the question.
Thanks to Bellator for bringing us a fight that never was (and perhaps Mir never would have wanted. Fedor? He dodges no one).
As far as the Aged Fedor vs. Aged Mir match-up?
I thought about this one for quite some time.
Fedor is the Great One. A true pleasure to watch in the ring. A striker that packs a punch like none other. The Greatest....
Originally I was thinking Fedor at + money...Perhaps the only time in history he has been a + ML. And it was against an overweight out of shape Frank Mir when it was announced.
But as the months progressed, my thoughts have changed.
I think Fedor has Rousey-syndrome. The way he's conducting his interviews, the answers he's given, the answers his representation is giving...he sounds like a beaten man already. Can he beat Mir? Of course. But there are several things in his way, some obvious and some not so obvious that will likely prevent that....
1) His age - 41. 38 (Mir) and 41 are eons apart inside the octagon. Easily this is the biggest factor. The last fight Fedor had ended before you blinked and the fight before that easily could have gone to his opponent. It was a bloody brawl where Fedor prevailed but by an eyelash at that. The following Matt Mitrone debacle was representative of the fighter Fedor now is: one that is collecting some remaining checks living off his sterling legacy as he rides off into the sunset.
Glass Joe with a glass jaw he's become. I see him punching himself out early as Mir knows he can't go into the late rounds with him. Mir will play rope a dope and then take him down.
2) Mir and the roids - Simply stated, Bellator does not test for roids or PED's and Mir, given he looked like a slob against Hunt and had a gut the size of Homer Simpson 3 months ago...and now he actually has ab definition, we know what the deal is.
Whether he's found out after the fight doesn't matter. He looks to be in far better shape than he should be.
Fedor? He's not on roids. After he came over from Pride (where he was likely taking?), he became the shapeless form we see today.
This is conjecture of course but Mir has all the signs pointing to roid ruse (getting in shape far too quick being the clincher + musculature that look unnatural in certain areas).
At both there ages, this gives a big edge to Mir.
3) Rousey syndrome
As stated before, the last loss so bad, is it too much to overcome tonight for Fedor? Much like Rousey's debacle against Nunes after Holm, who will we see tonight? Fedor is too much a gamble to back in that regard.
I just see a Frank Mir, who is more motivated, in better shape, on roids and has no hint of fear (as he would have had over a decade + ago against Fedor).
4) Fedor leaves himself open
I am blown away at how undisciplined Fedor has become in this area in his later years. He is always open to a submission after a punch (or a missed punch at that). And this is something you do not want to do against a master of submission in Mir, even at this age.
Even at the minus ML, it's a buy for me on Mir stock. Especially given the -140 was once -200 when it opened. That's a bargain in comparison.
Frank Mir -140 over the Great One
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