Initial lean was Izzy because how can he lose 0-4? But after more research and analytics Pereira is the +EV play.
Key angles:
1) Pereira is still evolving in the game he brought in heavyweights to spar, traveled to Thailand to improve technique, and training under glover is a plus. On the other side Izzy is regressing he hasn't shown any initiative (seeking outsider help) to improve his game sticking with the same camp.
2) The numbers favour the champion:
1) 12 of 19 champions coming in as an underdog have defended their title.
2) Winner of the first fight (MMA) are 52-26 overall in rematches.
3) Former champions trying to win back their title in immediate rematches are 3-11 in UFC history.
4) Pereria has that equalizer that can end the fight at any moment where Izzy's path to victory he has to fight a perfect fight.
Pereira 4U
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Initial lean was Izzy because how can he lose 0-4? But after more research and analytics Pereira is the +EV play.
Key angles:
1) Pereira is still evolving in the game he brought in heavyweights to spar, traveled to Thailand to improve technique, and training under glover is a plus. On the other side Izzy is regressing he hasn't shown any initiative (seeking outsider help) to improve his game sticking with the same camp.
2) The numbers favour the champion:
1) 12 of 19 champions coming in as an underdog have defended their title.
2) Winner of the first fight (MMA) are 52-26 overall in rematches.
3) Former champions trying to win back their title in immediate rematches are 3-11 in UFC history.
4) Pereria has that equalizer that can end the fight at any moment where Izzy's path to victory he has to fight a perfect fight.
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