Posted:
#1
This is a tough card overall for betting purposes, most notably in the main event. If you've read my picks before, you know I love prop bets and underdogs. Here are a few I like on this tough card.
Dustin Poirier wins inside distance +261 (4/5 confidence)
Poirier has won 5 of his last 6 with 4 coming by KO/TKO, with the lone loss in that span coming to Conor McGregor. Joe Duffy is has looked very sharp ins his first 2 UFC fights. I'm taking Poirier because he has a strong recent trend and Joe Duffy (despite beating McGregor 5 years ago) has only beaten 2 bums in the UFC. Poirier also has superior submission skills.
Joe Soto inside distance +433 (2/5 confidence)
I know you're thinking "but Whitebelt, this guy has gotten destroyed since coming to the UFC" and that may be a true statement, but let's point out the silver linings. He's a former Bellator champ. He took a fight against Champ TJ Dillashaw on 1 day notice & lasted until round 5. He won 6 straight before losing first 2 in the UFC. His opponent Michinori Tanaka 10-1 is a Judo black belt and is 1-1 in UFC, both by decision. Joe Soto likely won't win this fight in a decision, as Tanaka is very good at taking guys to the ground and controlling them. Joe Sota is a BJJ brown belt and may be able to survive on the ground, but really wants to keep this fight standing. Tanaka doesn't have any impressive wins, mostly against weak Japanese competition.
Alex Morono inside distance +506 (3/5 confidence)
Morono is making his UFC debut on only 10 days notice, but I like him to upset Noke here. I love betting young dogs against old favorites, and this is a great example. Noke is 35 and while has won 2 straight, he has only won 3 of his last 6 and that includes losses to Ed Herman, Andrew Craig, and Patrick Cote. Morono is a black belt in both BJJ and Taekwondo, and he won his last 5 by finish, with 4 in the first round. The short notice may not hurt him as much as it would many, as he last fought December 4th.
McDonald wins by TKO/KO -104 (4/5 confidence)
I almost never pick a fighter to win after a 2 year layoff, but Michael McDonald will knock out Kanehara. This is a near certainty. McDonald finished 14 of his 16 wins, while Kanehara is a 33 year old with a 25-12 record, mostly against mediocre Japanese competition. Bet McDonald with confidence, despite the ring rust.
Trujillo wins inside distance +255 (3/5 confidence)
This is a closer fight, but I'll lean Trujillo due to the price. Tony Sims hasn't been knocked out, and that may not change in this fight. Trujillo has taken his losses to tougher opponents than Sims has earned his wins, having only beat "Creepy Steve" in the UFC. I think Trujhillo has more power and ferocity, and I'll take him to win by KO.
Brian Ortega to win -181 (2/5 confidence)
I absolutely love the Gracie black belt Brian Ortega. I've profited nicely in his first 2 UFC fights, though this will be his most difficult test. I think Brandao holds an advantage on the feet, but I expect Ortega has been working on his striking game heavily. On the ground, while Brandao is a very good grappler, Brian Ortega is unmatched by anyone in the UFC. He can literally win a fight off his back with competent judges. His last fight was one of those fights until he took it out of the judges' hands and ended up getting a TKO win by ground & pound. I can see Ortega getting the win by finish, but it's safer to take him straight.
Andrei Arlovski to win +196 (Confidence 4/5)
Andrei Arlovski by KO/TKO +434 (Confidence 3/5)
I will pick Arlovski to win both straight up & by KO, mostly due to price. He's won 6 straight while Stipe has 4 wins in his last 6. Both guys have tremendous knock out power, but Arlovski has the edge. Stipe has the wrestling edge, but Arlovski has excellent takedown defense (85%). For almost 2:1 I love Arlovski straight, and I think Arlovski by KO/TKO at +434 presents terrific value.
Dustin Poirier wins inside distance +261 (4/5 confidence)
Poirier has won 5 of his last 6 with 4 coming by KO/TKO, with the lone loss in that span coming to Conor McGregor. Joe Duffy is has looked very sharp ins his first 2 UFC fights. I'm taking Poirier because he has a strong recent trend and Joe Duffy (despite beating McGregor 5 years ago) has only beaten 2 bums in the UFC. Poirier also has superior submission skills.
Joe Soto inside distance +433 (2/5 confidence)
I know you're thinking "but Whitebelt, this guy has gotten destroyed since coming to the UFC" and that may be a true statement, but let's point out the silver linings. He's a former Bellator champ. He took a fight against Champ TJ Dillashaw on 1 day notice & lasted until round 5. He won 6 straight before losing first 2 in the UFC. His opponent Michinori Tanaka 10-1 is a Judo black belt and is 1-1 in UFC, both by decision. Joe Soto likely won't win this fight in a decision, as Tanaka is very good at taking guys to the ground and controlling them. Joe Sota is a BJJ brown belt and may be able to survive on the ground, but really wants to keep this fight standing. Tanaka doesn't have any impressive wins, mostly against weak Japanese competition.
Alex Morono inside distance +506 (3/5 confidence)
Morono is making his UFC debut on only 10 days notice, but I like him to upset Noke here. I love betting young dogs against old favorites, and this is a great example. Noke is 35 and while has won 2 straight, he has only won 3 of his last 6 and that includes losses to Ed Herman, Andrew Craig, and Patrick Cote. Morono is a black belt in both BJJ and Taekwondo, and he won his last 5 by finish, with 4 in the first round. The short notice may not hurt him as much as it would many, as he last fought December 4th.
McDonald wins by TKO/KO -104 (4/5 confidence)
I almost never pick a fighter to win after a 2 year layoff, but Michael McDonald will knock out Kanehara. This is a near certainty. McDonald finished 14 of his 16 wins, while Kanehara is a 33 year old with a 25-12 record, mostly against mediocre Japanese competition. Bet McDonald with confidence, despite the ring rust.
Trujillo wins inside distance +255 (3/5 confidence)
This is a closer fight, but I'll lean Trujillo due to the price. Tony Sims hasn't been knocked out, and that may not change in this fight. Trujillo has taken his losses to tougher opponents than Sims has earned his wins, having only beat "Creepy Steve" in the UFC. I think Trujhillo has more power and ferocity, and I'll take him to win by KO.
Brian Ortega to win -181 (2/5 confidence)
I absolutely love the Gracie black belt Brian Ortega. I've profited nicely in his first 2 UFC fights, though this will be his most difficult test. I think Brandao holds an advantage on the feet, but I expect Ortega has been working on his striking game heavily. On the ground, while Brandao is a very good grappler, Brian Ortega is unmatched by anyone in the UFC. He can literally win a fight off his back with competent judges. His last fight was one of those fights until he took it out of the judges' hands and ended up getting a TKO win by ground & pound. I can see Ortega getting the win by finish, but it's safer to take him straight.
Andrei Arlovski to win +196 (Confidence 4/5)
Andrei Arlovski by KO/TKO +434 (Confidence 3/5)
I will pick Arlovski to win both straight up & by KO, mostly due to price. He's won 6 straight while Stipe has 4 wins in his last 6. Both guys have tremendous knock out power, but Arlovski has the edge. Stipe has the wrestling edge, but Arlovski has excellent takedown defense (85%). For almost 2:1 I love Arlovski straight, and I think Arlovski by KO/TKO at +434 presents terrific value.
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