I have to strongly recommend the below Bookie Beatdown link for quality analysis of UFC events...they really helped me with 208. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V-VBnm8Ek68
I was on Silva and thought he lost...it was nice to be on the right side of a fuckery after being burned in many big fights/main events but Silva...fade this guy 1000%. I bet on him attacking but was asking WTF are you doing?! throughout the fight at least a couple dozen times as he stood there, not fighting. Silva could have reached him with the jab over and over but was a dud and thankfully backers got lucky... Silva's fights are feeling like exhibition respect fests...as they then sat down together in the ring afterwards...enough of that...they may as well have kissed...
After considering all the Fight Night bouts my strongest picks are Fedor, Santos and Zahabi!
$100 parlay currently pays $364 but I put a little less
Lets go
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
I have to strongly recommend the below Bookie Beatdown link for quality analysis of UFC events...they really helped me with 208. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V-VBnm8Ek68
I was on Silva and thought he lost...it was nice to be on the right side of a fuckery after being burned in many big fights/main events but Silva...fade this guy 1000%. I bet on him attacking but was asking WTF are you doing?! throughout the fight at least a couple dozen times as he stood there, not fighting. Silva could have reached him with the jab over and over but was a dud and thankfully backers got lucky... Silva's fights are feeling like exhibition respect fests...as they then sat down together in the ring afterwards...enough of that...they may as well have kissed...
After considering all the Fight Night bouts my strongest picks are Fedor, Santos and Zahabi!
$100 parlay currently pays $364 but I put a little less
One of the GOAT at plus money... 36-4 Vs. 11-5 Mitrione was dropped by way lesser competition (but came back to win) recently.
If this fight goes to decision then Bellator has great interest in Fedor rising and he probably gets a favorable decision if he doesn't stop Mitrione.
Unless any of my 3 guys are dropped hard they're all winning
Santos
Santos is looking to avoid losing 3 in a row here Vs. a scrappy brit. Santos has lost to guys who have taken him down and submitted him recently...he will likely be getting a stand up fight here and the faster, more athletic has to be the pick.
Zahabi
A Canadian prospect making his UFC debut...6-0 Vs. 14-4 Zahabi is highly touted and all 6 of his wins were finishes. I'm not very familiar with him so I've taken a chance here as my biggest line. Apparently his opponent has all the makings of a non-title contender... Get the W for the Canadian crowd...
Fedor
One of the GOAT at plus money... 36-4 Vs. 11-5 Mitrione was dropped by way lesser competition (but came back to win) recently.
If this fight goes to decision then Bellator has great interest in Fedor rising and he probably gets a favorable decision if he doesn't stop Mitrione.
Unless any of my 3 guys are dropped hard they're all winning
Santos
Santos is looking to avoid losing 3 in a row here Vs. a scrappy brit. Santos has lost to guys who have taken him down and submitted him recently...he will likely be getting a stand up fight here and the faster, more athletic has to be the pick.
Zahabi
A Canadian prospect making his UFC debut...6-0 Vs. 14-4 Zahabi is highly touted and all 6 of his wins were finishes. I'm not very familiar with him so I've taken a chance here as my biggest line. Apparently his opponent has all the makings of a non-title contender... Get the W for the Canadian crowd...
Dude, no offense, but what the hell are you talking about in regards to Santos? Are you sure you're talking about the right Santos here? You claim that Santos' recent losses have been from guys who have taken him down and submitted him recently. WRONG. He got knocked the F out by Mousasi. Even in the Spicely loss, he got cracked with a shot on the feet that buckled his knees, which allowed Spicely to shoot a takedown. Even when Spicely got his back, it was another hammerfirst type of punch that wobbled Santos and caused him to go to his knees, where he gave up his neck.
His chin is the issue in all of his losses. The only other time he's ever even been submitted was a 2013 loss to Mutante. In that fight, Mutante hit him with a huge shot on the feet and Santos shot a desperation takedown, which Mutante used to lock up a guillotine. His other couple losses were by KO as well. It's always been his CHIN that's the issue, not his ground game or any of that stuff. Marshman may not be as skilled as Santos on the feet but he still hits hard and Santos' chin is weak as hell. I wouldn't trust Santos in a standup war at all. The under is the far better betting option in my opinion.
It seems like you're just throwing some darts and hoping they stick. "Unless my 3 guys get dropped hard, they're all winning." LOL yea, well newsflash, they all have a VERY good chance of getting dropped hard. Mitrione hits hard and Fedor got rocked right off the bat against Fabio Maldonado in his last fight for gosh sakes. Plus it's heavyweight. I already gave you my thoughts on Santos' chin and his opponent also hits hard. Then it sounds like you're just guessing on Zahabi. You admitted yourself you're not even familiar with him so why the heck are you willing to lay over 2:1 on a guy you know nothing about against another guy you know nothing about? I wouldn't recommend wagering on these types of fights if you don't have good reasoning at all to do so
Dude, no offense, but what the hell are you talking about in regards to Santos? Are you sure you're talking about the right Santos here? You claim that Santos' recent losses have been from guys who have taken him down and submitted him recently. WRONG. He got knocked the F out by Mousasi. Even in the Spicely loss, he got cracked with a shot on the feet that buckled his knees, which allowed Spicely to shoot a takedown. Even when Spicely got his back, it was another hammerfirst type of punch that wobbled Santos and caused him to go to his knees, where he gave up his neck.
His chin is the issue in all of his losses. The only other time he's ever even been submitted was a 2013 loss to Mutante. In that fight, Mutante hit him with a huge shot on the feet and Santos shot a desperation takedown, which Mutante used to lock up a guillotine. His other couple losses were by KO as well. It's always been his CHIN that's the issue, not his ground game or any of that stuff. Marshman may not be as skilled as Santos on the feet but he still hits hard and Santos' chin is weak as hell. I wouldn't trust Santos in a standup war at all. The under is the far better betting option in my opinion.
It seems like you're just throwing some darts and hoping they stick. "Unless my 3 guys get dropped hard, they're all winning." LOL yea, well newsflash, they all have a VERY good chance of getting dropped hard. Mitrione hits hard and Fedor got rocked right off the bat against Fabio Maldonado in his last fight for gosh sakes. Plus it's heavyweight. I already gave you my thoughts on Santos' chin and his opponent also hits hard. Then it sounds like you're just guessing on Zahabi. You admitted yourself you're not even familiar with him so why the heck are you willing to lay over 2:1 on a guy you know nothing about against another guy you know nothing about? I wouldn't recommend wagering on these types of fights if you don't have good reasoning at all to do so
I think you missed my point. I'm not on Marshman at all. I'm saying that your analysis of why you wanted to bet Santos didn't make sense at all. It's fine if you want to bet Santos, but don't think that he's easily going to win because it's going to be a striking match. His CHIN is a liability and his opponent hits hard. I was stressing that the "Under" and "Fight Doesn't Go the Distance" props are the best plays to make instead of relying on a side. I just don't like to see people using faulty logic to justify a play.
I'm not sure if I'll be posting for this event. I took a beating recently after typing up a huge breakdown of every fight and it made me a bit unmotivated to do that again lol. We'll see. Good luck on your plays
I think you missed my point. I'm not on Marshman at all. I'm saying that your analysis of why you wanted to bet Santos didn't make sense at all. It's fine if you want to bet Santos, but don't think that he's easily going to win because it's going to be a striking match. His CHIN is a liability and his opponent hits hard. I was stressing that the "Under" and "Fight Doesn't Go the Distance" props are the best plays to make instead of relying on a side. I just don't like to see people using faulty logic to justify a play.
I'm not sure if I'll be posting for this event. I took a beating recently after typing up a huge breakdown of every fight and it made me a bit unmotivated to do that again lol. We'll see. Good luck on your plays
Despite scrambling to make losing plays on inferior Bellator action--and losing on them--as a result of Fedor not smashing, I had a good weekend.
If Fedor would have won it would have been great but it lead me to making another parlay which won...
Thanks to Papashango for the post that lead to me taking two wins by decision...I chose the decision win selections I liked the most and added the main event.
I hit on a Ponz by decision, Hendricks by decision and Lewis parlay in addition to my leftovers on the win after the Fedor cancellation.
Win 2/19/17 11:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1107 Hendricks wins by 3 round decision +195*vs Not Hendricks by 3 round decision
Win
2/19/17 8:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1611 Ponzinibbio wins by 3 round decision +190*vs Not Ponzinibbio by 3 round decision
Despite scrambling to make losing plays on inferior Bellator action--and losing on them--as a result of Fedor not smashing, I had a good weekend.
If Fedor would have won it would have been great but it lead me to making another parlay which won...
Thanks to Papashango for the post that lead to me taking two wins by decision...I chose the decision win selections I liked the most and added the main event.
I hit on a Ponz by decision, Hendricks by decision and Lewis parlay in addition to my leftovers on the win after the Fedor cancellation.
Fkn fight! 
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