Fight prediction entire card Bader vs Johnson

Question

* = no edge

Anthony Johnson vs Bader *

Josh Barnett vs Ben Rothwell 80% Rothwell

Luri Alcantara vs Jimmie Rivera 75% Rivera

Sage Northcutt vs Bryan Barberena 90% Sage

Tarec Saffiedine vs Jake Ellenberger 70% Tarec

Olivier Aubin-Mercier vs Carlos Diego Ferreira 65% Olivier

Rafael Natal vs Kevin Casey*

Dustin Ortiz vs Wilson Reis*

George Sullivan vs Alexander Yakovlev 75% George Sullivan

Alex Caceres vs Masio Fullen*

Matt Dwyer vs Randy Brown 80% Randy Brown

Damon Jackson vs Levan Makashvilli 80% Levan

Tony Martin vs Felipe Olivieri 75% Felipe

Rothwell, George Sullivan and Felipe are underdogs.

Any picks that you disagree with or agree with? I would like to know why if you think the picks are wrong.

Feel free to put your pick predictions up.

Redwing51 · Answer

* = no edge

Anthony Johnson vs Bader *

Josh Barnett vs Ben Rothwell 80% Rothwell

Luri Alcantara vs Jimmie Rivera 75% Rivera

Sage Northcutt vs Bryan Barberena 90% Sage

Tarec Saffiedine vs Jake Ellenberger 70% Tarec

Olivier Aubin-Mercier vs Carlos Diego Ferreira 65% Olivier

Rafael Natal vs Kevin Casey*

Dustin Ortiz vs Wilson Reis*

George Sullivan vs Alexander Yakovlev 75% George Sullivan

Alex Caceres vs Masio Fullen*

Matt Dwyer vs Randy Brown 80% Randy Brown

Damon Jackson vs Levan Makashvilli 80% Levan

Tony Martin vs Felipe Olivieri 75% Felipe

Rothwell, George Sullivan and Felipe are underdogs.

Any picks that you disagree with or agree with? I would like to know why if you think the picks are wrong.

Feel free to put your pick predictions up.

JimGunn · Answer

I like Rothwell and bet his ML at &#x2B;140 and his decision line at &#x2B;647, but handicapping him at 80% to win seems high.

Redwing51 · Answer

Maybe 70-75 percent could be accurate. Still high odds for an underdog. Barnett is where he should in ranking. Rothwell can go a bit farther.

Barnett lost to Browne. Rothwell's last wins over Matt was impressive. Barnett is past his prime fighting Roy Nelson and Frank Mir. So he is somewhere in skill under Travis but above Roy and Mir (both holding bad records).

I can see Travis Browne and Ben Rothwell as good match up. Ben taking the win. Ben could take out JDS but would be tough to call. I cant see Barnett against JDS

Redwing51 · Answer

Im not sure to cap Felipe or not, I may have gave him too much credit at 75%. Tony martin is fairly decent. His loses come from great opponents.

JimGunn · Answer

So I have to imagine that with this kind of confidence in a &#x2B;140 dog, which I share to a certain extent, that you are going to make an uncharacteristically large bet on Rothwell, right? I&#x27;m just curious if you&#x27;re backing up your against the grain handicapping with a big wager. So far I just have 1u on his ML and .5u on his decision line personally.

Redwing51 · Answer

Im confident with the picks I will bet on future cards that I do not need to gamble a large amount of my bankroll on one chance. 20-30 percent chance of loss is still there. I would rather spread my units across the board as a sort of hedge bet if you can call it that.

This case Rivera and Roth seperate are at $55 dollars. Lower odd matchups are bet lower to offset the chance of roth losing. 65% at the lowest I will cap.

At +647 for roth decision that looks like odds makers agree knockout will come, lines are accurate on this. Barnett vs Travis will look similar to this fight as Travis + Ben are same skill level.

Redwing51 · Answer

Last card Trinaldo was my &#x2B;130 underdog with 80% odds. The 20 percent is for knockout.Rothwell has that style that would bother a lot of mid ranking fighters. Not so much against top 5.

JimGunn · Answer

I had Massuranduba for 1u at &#x2B;130 and 1u for &#x2B;140. I don&#x27;t think he had an 80% chance to win that fight but I am sure glad he did!

Redwing51 · Answer

Maybe I was wrong on the percentage. It may have been 60 to 40 in favor of Trinaldo. Only time will tell if my 80 percent picks hit 80 percent +/- 10 percent over time.

One thing that I factored is the fighting style of Trinaldo fairs well against Ross Pearson stiff fighting style. Major decision is which fighter going to go up in rank vs one that has reached their potential.

Pettis and alvarez fight I made a mistake. Alvarez was going to go up, Pettis had his shot at being champ again, no rematch after the fight. Usually means UFC doesnt want you as champ but is looking for a new replacement to fight champ. Bader same position Alvarez was in.

Redwing51 · Answer

So far the trend I noticed fighters with big names or known personalities like Pettis, Ross Pearson may fit into this category, Rumble Johnson, have their odds bumped up 80 to 200.

Pettis was something like -300 to Alvarez 250. Should have been -120 to at least show Pettis as fav.. -300 means he has 60 - 80 percent chance of winning. He lost to wrestlers before so his odds should be actually +120 to -110.

Ross Peason vs Trinaldo should have been -150 - 200+ for Trinaldo which is about the odds for someone that is 60-80 percent favourite.

TJ never will beat cruz, he may come close but Cruz style doesnt allow him to lose.. They switched the odds again Fav become Underdog, like the Pettis, Trinaldo, and now Rothwell and Sullivan, and with 60-65% odds for Bader.

It is to disguise it with the actual close match ups. Kevin Casey, Matt Dwyer, Felipe will be close match ups. Rothwell and Sullivan odds say they are close but they are not. Rumble vs Bader will look like Pettis vs Alvarez. I may need to put a small bet Bader.

rzagza · Answer

Bader - Rumble, no edge?Huh?Bader&#x27;s weakness is his chin.  He&#x27;s fighting the hardest puncher in the entire sport.  How do you think this ends?

Redwing51 · Answer

Bader gotten more experienced, he isnt dumb enough to stand in the pocket and trade. Avoid the heavy hands and he should win. He definately will come at him like Trinaldo did against Ross.

Redwing51 · Answer

I factored in AJ striking with Baders chin, so the edge is not really in Baders favor as heavily as other matchups this card. Maybe 58-42 Bader. 10 to 20 percent more for AJ, AJ has great knockout power.

Training for this fight Bader will fight to win by points. AJ may not come out swinging, instead try to outbox bader but AJ is more of a knockout fighter, doesnt connect and he loses. His opponent knows this.

RenegadesOfFunk · Answer

I think your low on Rothwell--I say 95% and Natal is a 98%..No doubt

Redwing51 · Answer

How do you see the Natal fight going? What will he need to avoid, what will he need to constantly do to win by TKO,Sub, or decision? Natal, recently ranked 15 is something that is a factor.

Fight prediction entire card Bader vs Johnson

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